Market Uncertainty

Today was an interesting day in the market, technically speaking. Both the Dow and S&P put in candle sticks that indicate the likelihood of a change of direction. The problem is that it seems to me to be a reaction to the headlines more than actual economic data (facts).

For the past month, the headlines have been saying that home sales have been going up, that the CARS program has been producing record sales, that GM is not hiring back employees, and that unemployment is slowing. Put what do the headlines say now? Here are just a few from Yahoo! Finance:
U.S. deficit forecasts due Tuesday - CNNMoney.com
Wall Street pauses after four-day rally- AP
Analyst: Up to 200 more banks may fail in crisis- AP
Sprint Nextel-Virgin Mobile USA deal gets FTC's OK- AP
Gov't extends deadline for clunkers paperwork- AP
Fannie, Freddie shares soar on huge volume- AP
U.S. home lender Taylor Bean files for bankruptcy- Reuters
"Our Country Would Be Healthier" With a Weaker Dollar, O'Rourke Says- Tech Ticker

Here we see plenty of mixed opinions, but the ones that really did a number today were probably the ones about the deficit, estimated future bank failings, and the Taylor Bean bankruptcy.

From what I can tell, it is most often the reports about the government spending and the bank/lender failings that gets investors all in a tizzy in this market recession. The fact, though, that the markets didn't really move that far down today indicates that the investors are on the sideline waiting mostly on the deficit forecast that is due tomorrow. This could result in the market swinging wildly either way. We will just have to see and prepare for either move.

So what happened for me? Well, my NG Put made money, but the stock slipped further; and my Call on ODP isn't doing well either. But there is some information to disclose. I have a stop on my ODP Call and my NG Put. If the market really tanks tomorrow I will probably be out of the ODP Call and I should adjust the stop on my NG Put to protect the gains made today. I already had an order in to protect against further losses if today was a bull day and I have put in for an adjustment to reduce my losses even more if tomorrow is a super bull day.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

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