On the final trading day of 2009, the market took a hit. But I don't have anything to complain about. This is how my portfolio fared.
CPLP had a bullish day on below average volume. This continued to push the Stochastic and MACD indicators up. The close of the day was at the most recent high. I believe with the opening of 2010 there will be some more upside gains with CPLP, but I don't think it will be too dramatic.
EVEP had a bearish day on below average volume. This continued to pull the Stochastic and MACD indicators down. I believe that EVEP is still a strong stock but that it will be pulling down to about $28 dollars.
SLV had a bullish day on below average volume. The bullish move was lacking so much enthusiasm that the Stochastic and MACD indicators are still pointing down. I believe that the depression of the SLV ETF is a result of the poor performance of the retail sector as a result of the economy. Since there were far fewer electronic goods sold during the entire year than was hoped, the purchase of raw silver for all of the applications it is used in was reduced for next years production. I think it is still at a good buying price, it is just waitng for the economy to bounce back.
AEA had another bear day on below average volume, but the move was very small. It didn't take out the low it just put in yesterday. Also the Stochastic indicator is in the oversold range and the MACD is under the zero line. It is possible that a bull move is in the near future. Depending on the volume of that move it may turn out well.
All of my symbols on my watch list of paper trades in the option market are still moving sideways, except for SPIL. SPIL made a bullish gap up and closed a little higher for a total of 9 cents or 1.3% on below average volume. Although this price movement maintained the upward direction of the Stochastic and MACD indicators there was no movement in the option market today, so I am going to wait until next week to see if this was just a fluke. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Portfolio Update
This is how my portfolio fared.
CPLP had a bullish day on below average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators reacted by both crossing over their signal lines in the up directions. The bull move is continuing to rally swing traders may want to get back in for some more gains as it heads towards $10 per share.
EVEP had a bearish day on below average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both pointing down in agreement. All of this is a strong signal that the up move is at an end. Everyone interested in maintaining as much of their gains as possible should consider setting stops.
SLV had a bearish day on below average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are touching their signal lines. Those not willing to stay in the ETF should consider setting stops to save what is left of their position. However, since today's movement started with a gap down and then proceeded to make a very small bodied candlestick with short wicks on top and bottom, it is possible that this is the beginning of a morning star doji candle stick pattern. It would be wise to see where it opens tomorrow. If it gaps up then this was the signal for the next bull move.
As for my option paper trades, everything is still moving sideways, so none of the ones I am watching have been moved into for a position.
As for new actual stock positions, AEA still hasn't broken out of this downward slop that it is on. I am starting to believe that it may be starting a new down trend. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP had a bullish day on below average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators reacted by both crossing over their signal lines in the up directions. The bull move is continuing to rally swing traders may want to get back in for some more gains as it heads towards $10 per share.
EVEP had a bearish day on below average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both pointing down in agreement. All of this is a strong signal that the up move is at an end. Everyone interested in maintaining as much of their gains as possible should consider setting stops.
SLV had a bearish day on below average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are touching their signal lines. Those not willing to stay in the ETF should consider setting stops to save what is left of their position. However, since today's movement started with a gap down and then proceeded to make a very small bodied candlestick with short wicks on top and bottom, it is possible that this is the beginning of a morning star doji candle stick pattern. It would be wise to see where it opens tomorrow. If it gaps up then this was the signal for the next bull move.
As for my option paper trades, everything is still moving sideways, so none of the ones I am watching have been moved into for a position.
As for new actual stock positions, AEA still hasn't broken out of this downward slop that it is on. I am starting to believe that it may be starting a new down trend. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Portfolio Update
This post is for December 29th, 2009. I had a very long day so this is going to be brief. Here is how my portfolio fared.
CPLP had a bullish day on slightly better than average volume. This movement turned the Stochastic and MACD indicators back up so that they are in contact with their signal lines. The Stochastic is just below the over bought range. The placement of the open and close of the price movement was above the downward trending resistance line I have been tracking it with. Although the bid and ask of the day suggest indecision by engulfing the entire price movment, there is reason to believe that this may be the continuation of the upward move.
EVEP had a bullish day on slightly better than average volume. This move, however, closed lower than it's open. The Stochastic and MACD indicators say that the stock is overbought. The Stochastic indicator continues to move sideways and the MACD continues to decline. The bid and ask prices are also very wide, suggesting indicision. Swing traders should pay attention to set stops.
SLV had a solid bear day on slightly higher than average volume. This movement has weakend the Stochastic and MACD indicators. The bid and ask are bracketing the low of the day. This suggests a lower opening for the next day. I am disturbed by the continued depression of this ETF. The $17.42 price is proving hard to break above. It really should be much higher.
As for option paper trades, JADE made a bullish move but did not move higher than the previous day's high, so I am not moving in on it just yet. JPM is finding it hard moving higher, continuing to wait on that. OPWV had a slight bearish day but still moving sideways, so not entering that one. S is looking good for one in the near future. SPIL had a bearish day so I am not moving on it either.
As for me watch list of trades to actually get into, AEA was unchanged from the previous day. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP had a bullish day on slightly better than average volume. This movement turned the Stochastic and MACD indicators back up so that they are in contact with their signal lines. The Stochastic is just below the over bought range. The placement of the open and close of the price movement was above the downward trending resistance line I have been tracking it with. Although the bid and ask of the day suggest indecision by engulfing the entire price movment, there is reason to believe that this may be the continuation of the upward move.
EVEP had a bullish day on slightly better than average volume. This move, however, closed lower than it's open. The Stochastic and MACD indicators say that the stock is overbought. The Stochastic indicator continues to move sideways and the MACD continues to decline. The bid and ask prices are also very wide, suggesting indicision. Swing traders should pay attention to set stops.
SLV had a solid bear day on slightly higher than average volume. This movement has weakend the Stochastic and MACD indicators. The bid and ask are bracketing the low of the day. This suggests a lower opening for the next day. I am disturbed by the continued depression of this ETF. The $17.42 price is proving hard to break above. It really should be much higher.
As for option paper trades, JADE made a bullish move but did not move higher than the previous day's high, so I am not moving in on it just yet. JPM is finding it hard moving higher, continuing to wait on that. OPWV had a slight bearish day but still moving sideways, so not entering that one. S is looking good for one in the near future. SPIL had a bearish day so I am not moving on it either.
As for me watch list of trades to actually get into, AEA was unchanged from the previous day. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Monday, December 28, 2009
Portfolio Update
Well the Christmas Holiday has come and gone. Only one more short week to go until all the stock traders are working at high gear. Unfortunately, I didn't have the time this weekend to post as I thought I might, so this is the first post since last Thursday. This is how my portfolio fared.
CPLP had a bullish day on better than average volume that totally engulfed the bear move of last Thursday. Unfortunately, it didn't take out the high of last Thursday. This creates an uncertainty with the candlestick reading. With the Stochastic and MACD indicators pointing down and a downward trending resistance line just pennies above, there is a solid likelihood that CPLP will continue to retreat. If I were swing trading this stock, I don't think I would be trying to get in it at this time.
EVEP had a bullish day on below average volume that officially broke above the high of two weeks ago. The Stochastic indicator continues to travel sideways in the overbought range and the MACD indicator is still retreating but looks to be attempting to turn up. If this move is anything like early September of this year, then I am suspecting a climb up to $33 at least. The current bid and ask is set for either direction at this point. A move in either direction could occur.
SLV had a bullish move on below average volume that ended bearish for the day. It opened and closed above the close of the last trading day, but closed less than the opening of the current day. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are pointing up and the Stochastic is pushing it's way out of the oversold range. All it needs to do now is break through and stay above the $17.43 resistance price point.
As far as paper trades in the options market is concerned, JADE and SPIL both put in shooting star candlestick patterns on lower than average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators both suggest that the next trend should be bullish, but because the candlestick pattern is bearish, I need a bullish move tomorrow to get me into them. OPWV was unchanged on lower than average volume in comparison to the last trading day, so I am still waiting for a bullish move to get me in. JPM had a bearish day on lower than average volume, but the Stochastic and MACD indicators are both pointing up. I am just waiting on a solid bullish day to get me into an option position.
As far as additional stock positions, AEA broke down through the horizontal support line I had been tracking it with. The volume was less than average and the Stochastic and MACD indicators are pointing down in the oversold range. This suggests that there will be some additional downward movement before there is a reversal. So I will be waiting for that signal. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP had a bullish day on better than average volume that totally engulfed the bear move of last Thursday. Unfortunately, it didn't take out the high of last Thursday. This creates an uncertainty with the candlestick reading. With the Stochastic and MACD indicators pointing down and a downward trending resistance line just pennies above, there is a solid likelihood that CPLP will continue to retreat. If I were swing trading this stock, I don't think I would be trying to get in it at this time.
EVEP had a bullish day on below average volume that officially broke above the high of two weeks ago. The Stochastic indicator continues to travel sideways in the overbought range and the MACD indicator is still retreating but looks to be attempting to turn up. If this move is anything like early September of this year, then I am suspecting a climb up to $33 at least. The current bid and ask is set for either direction at this point. A move in either direction could occur.
SLV had a bullish move on below average volume that ended bearish for the day. It opened and closed above the close of the last trading day, but closed less than the opening of the current day. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are pointing up and the Stochastic is pushing it's way out of the oversold range. All it needs to do now is break through and stay above the $17.43 resistance price point.
As far as paper trades in the options market is concerned, JADE and SPIL both put in shooting star candlestick patterns on lower than average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators both suggest that the next trend should be bullish, but because the candlestick pattern is bearish, I need a bullish move tomorrow to get me into them. OPWV was unchanged on lower than average volume in comparison to the last trading day, so I am still waiting for a bullish move to get me in. JPM had a bearish day on lower than average volume, but the Stochastic and MACD indicators are both pointing up. I am just waiting on a solid bullish day to get me into an option position.
As far as additional stock positions, AEA broke down through the horizontal support line I had been tracking it with. The volume was less than average and the Stochastic and MACD indicators are pointing down in the oversold range. This suggests that there will be some additional downward movement before there is a reversal. So I will be waiting for that signal. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Christmas Eve Portfolio Update
Well with the US market closing early today, and my job shutting down early today until the new year, I have the time to make an early post. Also, since I am not a celebrator of holiday's I will probably post watch list and trade picks tomorrow. Anyway, this is how my portfolio fared.
CPLP had an effectively bull day on lower than average volume. I use the word effectively for the reason that it closed higher today than it did yesterday, although it actually opened higher than it closed. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are still showing a loss in strength so it is still not the time for capital gains investors to be getting back in. I am long term for dividend cash flow, so that is the reason why I am in.
EVEP had a bear day as it opened and closed at the same price but just a little under the close of yesterday. The price movement of this doji start candlestick was controlled by below average volume. Doji's starts that occur at the top of a move with the Stochastic and MACD indicators high up in the overbought range, like they are on this day, usually mean that they will trade down shortly afterwards. I'm in for the dividend cash flow so I will not be taking any action. It would be wise for capital gains investors to set stops at this time.
SLV had a bull day on below average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both pointing up but within the oversold range. The impressive thing about the move SLV made was that it gaped up at the open of the day before climbing. This could mean that the bearish conditions have ended, but SLV is challenging resistance at about $17.50. If it breaks above this resistance level, there is good reason to believe that it will rally up to, and through, $19.70.
As far as option paper trades are concerned, I still haven't entered any. JADE and SPIL both had shallow bull days on below average volume. Their Stochastic and MACD indicators are both still suggesting that the bottoming behavior is not over yet. I will continue to watch them. OPWV made an interesting move today. The price movement of the day was bullish. It saw a new high on low volume but came back down to close only 1 cent higher. This type of price movement is called a shooting star doji. This is a reversal indicator, meaning that it has a high probability of going down next week. Additionally, the Stochastic indicator is out of the oversold range, but the MACD indicator is not yet over the zero line. If next week shows a pull back, I will probably not get be getting into it for the paper trade.
In regards to actual trades, I still haven't entered into any. AEA had a bear day on lower than average volume, but remains inside the resistance and support lines of a downward trending right triangle candlestick pattern. The Stochastic indicator is still pointing down but has not broken into the oversold range. The MACD indicator is still tending more or less sideways under the zero line. I will not make a move until a breakout occurs and the indicators both indicate official upward momentum.
Looking back a little bit, I wrote about JPM being a breakout candidate for this week. I was right, but didn't mention anything about it. That was simply because I forgot all about it. Anyway, it has been fighting to break out further, but failing every day this week. It has, however, been moving sideways. This, in addition to the Stochastic indicator pointing up out of the oversold range, and the MACD being close to breaking above the zero line, I will add this to my option paper trades. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP had an effectively bull day on lower than average volume. I use the word effectively for the reason that it closed higher today than it did yesterday, although it actually opened higher than it closed. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are still showing a loss in strength so it is still not the time for capital gains investors to be getting back in. I am long term for dividend cash flow, so that is the reason why I am in.
EVEP had a bear day as it opened and closed at the same price but just a little under the close of yesterday. The price movement of this doji start candlestick was controlled by below average volume. Doji's starts that occur at the top of a move with the Stochastic and MACD indicators high up in the overbought range, like they are on this day, usually mean that they will trade down shortly afterwards. I'm in for the dividend cash flow so I will not be taking any action. It would be wise for capital gains investors to set stops at this time.
SLV had a bull day on below average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both pointing up but within the oversold range. The impressive thing about the move SLV made was that it gaped up at the open of the day before climbing. This could mean that the bearish conditions have ended, but SLV is challenging resistance at about $17.50. If it breaks above this resistance level, there is good reason to believe that it will rally up to, and through, $19.70.
As far as option paper trades are concerned, I still haven't entered any. JADE and SPIL both had shallow bull days on below average volume. Their Stochastic and MACD indicators are both still suggesting that the bottoming behavior is not over yet. I will continue to watch them. OPWV made an interesting move today. The price movement of the day was bullish. It saw a new high on low volume but came back down to close only 1 cent higher. This type of price movement is called a shooting star doji. This is a reversal indicator, meaning that it has a high probability of going down next week. Additionally, the Stochastic indicator is out of the oversold range, but the MACD indicator is not yet over the zero line. If next week shows a pull back, I will probably not get be getting into it for the paper trade.
In regards to actual trades, I still haven't entered into any. AEA had a bear day on lower than average volume, but remains inside the resistance and support lines of a downward trending right triangle candlestick pattern. The Stochastic indicator is still pointing down but has not broken into the oversold range. The MACD indicator is still tending more or less sideways under the zero line. I will not make a move until a breakout occurs and the indicators both indicate official upward momentum.
Looking back a little bit, I wrote about JPM being a breakout candidate for this week. I was right, but didn't mention anything about it. That was simply because I forgot all about it. Anyway, it has been fighting to break out further, but failing every day this week. It has, however, been moving sideways. This, in addition to the Stochastic indicator pointing up out of the oversold range, and the MACD being close to breaking above the zero line, I will add this to my option paper trades. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Portfolio Update
This day didn't see much action in the market. As a result there wasn't much movement in my portfolio either. This is how my portfolio fared.
CPLP had another bear day on less than average volume. The stock itself is obviously pointing down. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are pointing down while sitting in the overbought range. During the day the 200-day moving average was touched by the low, but the stock closed a few cents higher. It would be unwise for a capital gains investor to remain in this stock. It is good that I am in for the cash flow from the dividend.
EVEP had a bull day on less than average volume. With the Stochastic and MACD indicators in the overbought range and the MACD already pointing down, it is unlikely that this level will be maintained for much longer. It would be wise for a capital gains investor to be setting a stop. But I am not investing in this stock for the capital gains, either.
SLV had a bull day on on less than average volume. With the Stochastic and MACD in the oversold range and moving sideways. This is what they call basing. It is only a matter of time until it breaks out to the upside.
On my list of option paper trade possibilities, JADE is looking better as its price movement is breaking through the downward trending resistance line that I am tracking it against. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both in the oversold range, but they are starting to level off and turn. If tomorrow is a strong day I will get into it then. I mentioned SPIL in my last post and instead of a bull day it had a bear day. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are also still over sold, so I am still not entering it.
In regards to stocks I will be getting into, AEA had a bear day, breaking under the upward trending support line I was tracking it against. It looks to be making a base on the horizontal support line I mention I was also tracking it against as well as the downward trending resistance line. The MACD indicator has leveled out but the Stochastic indicator is still declining toward the oversold range, but not yet in it. I am waiting for the price to break above the downward trending resistance line and for the Stochastic and MACD to point up and out of the oversold range. It doesn't look like it will be too far off. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP had another bear day on less than average volume. The stock itself is obviously pointing down. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are pointing down while sitting in the overbought range. During the day the 200-day moving average was touched by the low, but the stock closed a few cents higher. It would be unwise for a capital gains investor to remain in this stock. It is good that I am in for the cash flow from the dividend.
EVEP had a bull day on less than average volume. With the Stochastic and MACD indicators in the overbought range and the MACD already pointing down, it is unlikely that this level will be maintained for much longer. It would be wise for a capital gains investor to be setting a stop. But I am not investing in this stock for the capital gains, either.
SLV had a bull day on on less than average volume. With the Stochastic and MACD in the oversold range and moving sideways. This is what they call basing. It is only a matter of time until it breaks out to the upside.
On my list of option paper trade possibilities, JADE is looking better as its price movement is breaking through the downward trending resistance line that I am tracking it against. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both in the oversold range, but they are starting to level off and turn. If tomorrow is a strong day I will get into it then. I mentioned SPIL in my last post and instead of a bull day it had a bear day. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are also still over sold, so I am still not entering it.
In regards to stocks I will be getting into, AEA had a bear day, breaking under the upward trending support line I was tracking it against. It looks to be making a base on the horizontal support line I mention I was also tracking it against as well as the downward trending resistance line. The MACD indicator has leveled out but the Stochastic indicator is still declining toward the oversold range, but not yet in it. I am waiting for the price to break above the downward trending resistance line and for the Stochastic and MACD to point up and out of the oversold range. It doesn't look like it will be too far off. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Portfolio Update
Due to a number of investors taking off early for Christmas, there is a significant drop off in trading volume this week. As a result, it is a blessing to see any green at all. This is how my portfolio fared.
CPLP pulled back just a little bit on below average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are touching their signal lines and turning down slightly, but I am not expecting a dramatic pull-back. I suspect it will continue like this for the remainder of the week and then maybe some more next week. But come next year, I think it will be going back up. I am in for the long term dividend play, not the capital gains alone.
EVEP gaped up and then pulled back on lower than average volume for a small gain. As of the close, the Stochastic and MACD indicators are diverging from each other. This is also a dividend play, so I will probably be in it through next year.
SLV had a bearish day on less than average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are still running more or less sideways in the oversold range. I don't think it will sit here for much longer. If anything, it should start climbing after Christmas or New Years.
As far as my list of option paper trade possibilities, only one is showing promise right now. SPIL has broken above the downward trending resistance line and held on to the gains. However, what I am seeing right now is that the Stochastic and MACD indicators are still in the oversold condition, but they are pointing upward. What I am waiting for is for them to cross out of the oversold area. When they do that, I will take an option position at the closing of that day.
The next one I believe to be about to go on an uptrend is AEA. However, this will be an actual stock position. Both the Stochastic and MACD are touching their signal lines while in the process of turning from down to side ways. The Stochastic indicator is not yet in the oversold range but the MACD is currently just under it. The price movement has been weak and on low volume as it has been challenging a downward trending resistance line that is converging with an upward trending support line. If it breaks the support line, there is also horizontal support line. Unfortunately, the downward trending resistance line and the horizontal support line produce a flag pattern that usually breaks out to the downside. Despite that I am inclined to believe that because the secondary indicators are already depressed, that there will be a break out to the up side. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP pulled back just a little bit on below average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are touching their signal lines and turning down slightly, but I am not expecting a dramatic pull-back. I suspect it will continue like this for the remainder of the week and then maybe some more next week. But come next year, I think it will be going back up. I am in for the long term dividend play, not the capital gains alone.
EVEP gaped up and then pulled back on lower than average volume for a small gain. As of the close, the Stochastic and MACD indicators are diverging from each other. This is also a dividend play, so I will probably be in it through next year.
SLV had a bearish day on less than average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are still running more or less sideways in the oversold range. I don't think it will sit here for much longer. If anything, it should start climbing after Christmas or New Years.
As far as my list of option paper trade possibilities, only one is showing promise right now. SPIL has broken above the downward trending resistance line and held on to the gains. However, what I am seeing right now is that the Stochastic and MACD indicators are still in the oversold condition, but they are pointing upward. What I am waiting for is for them to cross out of the oversold area. When they do that, I will take an option position at the closing of that day.
The next one I believe to be about to go on an uptrend is AEA. However, this will be an actual stock position. Both the Stochastic and MACD are touching their signal lines while in the process of turning from down to side ways. The Stochastic indicator is not yet in the oversold range but the MACD is currently just under it. The price movement has been weak and on low volume as it has been challenging a downward trending resistance line that is converging with an upward trending support line. If it breaks the support line, there is also horizontal support line. Unfortunately, the downward trending resistance line and the horizontal support line produce a flag pattern that usually breaks out to the downside. Despite that I am inclined to believe that because the secondary indicators are already depressed, that there will be a break out to the up side. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Monday, December 21, 2009
Portfolio Update
Not much to mention this time around. The market started out with strong gains, but could hold on to much of them toward the end of the day. Here is how my portfolio fared.
CPLP started the day up a little over a dime, but was unable to maintain the bump up in value. With the volume being below average, it ended the day only up 1 penny. So far that is a 4 days of nearly the same behavior, opening higher only to pull back. With the closing price barely changing day to day, it appears that it is doing the same thing it did in late September early October.
EVEP started near the close of last Friday and then closed near the opening of last Friday. This price movement creates a bullish Harami candlestick pattern. This pattern is a bullish indicator. The question that I have now is if it can break above the high it just put in last Thursday. Even better than average volume, I am not inclined to believe so. The last time it put in a top that was followed by a Harami candlestick pattern, if fell dramatically. I am holding this stock for the dividend, so we will just wait and see.
SLV opened strong today, but with less than average volume, it lost value as the day progressed. All indicators say that it is oversold. My opinion is that it is just taking a break. I am going to continue to hold onto my position.
As far as paper trading is concerned, I currently do not hold any positions. I am still looking out for entry points, however.
Over the weekend, I mentioned two stocks I will be trading for Covered Calls, AEA and SPIL. Both of them broke the downward trending resistance line I am tracking against them, but neither could maintain the move before the closing bell. If they do it tomorrow, and depending on how strongly they close above the downward trending resistance line, I will be taking a literal position in at least one of them. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP started the day up a little over a dime, but was unable to maintain the bump up in value. With the volume being below average, it ended the day only up 1 penny. So far that is a 4 days of nearly the same behavior, opening higher only to pull back. With the closing price barely changing day to day, it appears that it is doing the same thing it did in late September early October.
EVEP started near the close of last Friday and then closed near the opening of last Friday. This price movement creates a bullish Harami candlestick pattern. This pattern is a bullish indicator. The question that I have now is if it can break above the high it just put in last Thursday. Even better than average volume, I am not inclined to believe so. The last time it put in a top that was followed by a Harami candlestick pattern, if fell dramatically. I am holding this stock for the dividend, so we will just wait and see.
SLV opened strong today, but with less than average volume, it lost value as the day progressed. All indicators say that it is oversold. My opinion is that it is just taking a break. I am going to continue to hold onto my position.
As far as paper trading is concerned, I currently do not hold any positions. I am still looking out for entry points, however.
Over the weekend, I mentioned two stocks I will be trading for Covered Calls, AEA and SPIL. Both of them broke the downward trending resistance line I am tracking against them, but neither could maintain the move before the closing bell. If they do it tomorrow, and depending on how strongly they close above the downward trending resistance line, I will be taking a literal position in at least one of them. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Breakout Picks For This Week
For this short week I have a four breakout picks and my analysis of where they may go. They are AEA, JADE, OPWV, and SPIL.
AEA is a company in the industry of Consumer Financial Services. Essentially it is a credit card company. For the past 30-days or so, it has been on a down trend. The Stochastic indicator has not yet fallen into the oversold range, but the MACD has fallen under the zero line just last week. The stock itself has created a Harami candlestick pattern that indicates it may be reversing, but the volume on that formation was just under average, which causes me some hesitation. Because it is a stock that is less than $10 per share and pays a dividend, I am considering it for a Covered Call. What I am waiting for is confirmation of this reversal. There is a downward trending resistance line that is almost touching the 20-day moving average of $6.15. For me to get in it this week it will have to break and stay above this resistance line. That is quite a distance considering it's current average trading range (ATR) of 26 cents. However, if it does it successfully on the first day of the week, I will be influenced by the move to get in on the next day as the Fibonacci Extension suggests that it may break $7 before pulling back again. And if it does, I will probably sell the $7.50Jan10 Call against it.
JADE is a company in the cyclical consumer jewelry and silverware industry. Over the last few years it has been beaten down from $13 per share to $2. It has recently broken into the oversold range for both Stochastic and MACD indicators. It is also near an old resistance level that it broke through for it's last rally, so now it is a support level. What hasn't happened yet is a candlestick pattern suggesting a reversal. And if there is no volume behind it when the move is made, then I will also have to wait for additional confirmation such as a break through down trending resistance lines. What is problematic about that is it dropped sharply from one a couple weeks ago and created another one last week. So even if it does break and stay above the most recent one there is quite a gap until the next one. Another red flag on JADE is that it does not pay a dividend, so the only thing I will have to look forward to with it is a Covered Call play. That being the case, I will only paper trade this one.
OPWV is a company in the Software & Programming industry. Over the past few years it has been beaten down from $22.50 per share to $2. Much further back during the Dot Com era, it was once valued at $600 per share. "How the mighty have fallen," comes to mind. But what do I care about the companies as long as they make me money, right? Anyway, I am not looking for much from it. What I know is that it has dropped to support, again. And in doing so, it has also dropped into the oversold range for both the Stochastic and MACD indicators. On Friday, it also created a Harami candlestick pattern that suggests that a reversal is possible. The volume on this candlestick formation was much greater than average and strengthens the probability of the reversal. However, the red flags are that it hasn't payed a dividend for a long while, and it is possibly too low in price for it to be a wise Covered Call play, not to mention I can identify two downward trending resistance lines not too far apart from each other. As a consequence of these red flags, I will only be paper trading it for practice. But I will only make a play on it after it confirms the change of direction.
Last on my list is SPIL. SPIL is a company in the Semiconductor industry. While being in the oversold range for both the Stochastic and MACD indicators, on stronger than average volume it bounce from a new low. That new low was created near a few support levels in the $6 range. The only thing left for it to do in my criteria is for it to break through the downward trending resistance line that intersects at about $6.75 on this coming Monday. It has been paying out a an erratic dividend amount once a year for 4 years so I don't think it is guaranteed. With that red flag understood, I think I will still invest in it, but only if it breaks and stays above the downward trending resistance line. Afterwards, I will be looking for an opportunity to sell the $7.50Jan10 Call against it. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
AEA is a company in the industry of Consumer Financial Services. Essentially it is a credit card company. For the past 30-days or so, it has been on a down trend. The Stochastic indicator has not yet fallen into the oversold range, but the MACD has fallen under the zero line just last week. The stock itself has created a Harami candlestick pattern that indicates it may be reversing, but the volume on that formation was just under average, which causes me some hesitation. Because it is a stock that is less than $10 per share and pays a dividend, I am considering it for a Covered Call. What I am waiting for is confirmation of this reversal. There is a downward trending resistance line that is almost touching the 20-day moving average of $6.15. For me to get in it this week it will have to break and stay above this resistance line. That is quite a distance considering it's current average trading range (ATR) of 26 cents. However, if it does it successfully on the first day of the week, I will be influenced by the move to get in on the next day as the Fibonacci Extension suggests that it may break $7 before pulling back again. And if it does, I will probably sell the $7.50Jan10 Call against it.
JADE is a company in the cyclical consumer jewelry and silverware industry. Over the last few years it has been beaten down from $13 per share to $2. It has recently broken into the oversold range for both Stochastic and MACD indicators. It is also near an old resistance level that it broke through for it's last rally, so now it is a support level. What hasn't happened yet is a candlestick pattern suggesting a reversal. And if there is no volume behind it when the move is made, then I will also have to wait for additional confirmation such as a break through down trending resistance lines. What is problematic about that is it dropped sharply from one a couple weeks ago and created another one last week. So even if it does break and stay above the most recent one there is quite a gap until the next one. Another red flag on JADE is that it does not pay a dividend, so the only thing I will have to look forward to with it is a Covered Call play. That being the case, I will only paper trade this one.
OPWV is a company in the Software & Programming industry. Over the past few years it has been beaten down from $22.50 per share to $2. Much further back during the Dot Com era, it was once valued at $600 per share. "How the mighty have fallen," comes to mind. But what do I care about the companies as long as they make me money, right? Anyway, I am not looking for much from it. What I know is that it has dropped to support, again. And in doing so, it has also dropped into the oversold range for both the Stochastic and MACD indicators. On Friday, it also created a Harami candlestick pattern that suggests that a reversal is possible. The volume on this candlestick formation was much greater than average and strengthens the probability of the reversal. However, the red flags are that it hasn't payed a dividend for a long while, and it is possibly too low in price for it to be a wise Covered Call play, not to mention I can identify two downward trending resistance lines not too far apart from each other. As a consequence of these red flags, I will only be paper trading it for practice. But I will only make a play on it after it confirms the change of direction.
Last on my list is SPIL. SPIL is a company in the Semiconductor industry. While being in the oversold range for both the Stochastic and MACD indicators, on stronger than average volume it bounce from a new low. That new low was created near a few support levels in the $6 range. The only thing left for it to do in my criteria is for it to break through the downward trending resistance line that intersects at about $6.75 on this coming Monday. It has been paying out a an erratic dividend amount once a year for 4 years so I don't think it is guaranteed. With that red flag understood, I think I will still invest in it, but only if it breaks and stays above the downward trending resistance line. Afterwards, I will be looking for an opportunity to sell the $7.50Jan10 Call against it. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Friday, December 18, 2009
Portfolio Update
The market had a slightly bullish day after a hard drop yesterday. The result for me, however, was a bit of a mix. This is how my portfolio fared.
CPLP had a slightly bearish day. Although it attempted to be bullish, too much bearish volume flooded in at the end of the day. The volume was above average and the Stochastic and MACD indicators continue to turn from up to sideways in the overbought range. Considering price movement and the current position of the secondary indicators, a repeat of late Septembers sideways movement seems to be likely, although it is possible that it may go back down to $8 or lower.
EVEP had a solid bearish day. The volume was above average and both the Stochastic and MACD indicators are touching their signal lines in the overbought range. The Stochastic indicator is just starting to turn sideways from up and the MACD indicator sharply turned down. It is my opinion that it will probably pull back between $28 and $27, at least, before changing directions again.
SLV had a slightly bullish day. On very below average volume, it's price movement produced what is known as a Harami candlestick. This is when the body of the day's trading occurs within the range of the body of the previous day's trading, and it is also a bullish candlestick pattern. The Stochastic and MACD indicators have both turned and are touching their signal lines while in the oversold range. Although the candlestick pattern and secondary indicators suggest that a bullish reversal is possible, the volume is weak. A person wanting to get in would be wise to consider this a good time to get it, especially if Monday is a bullish day.
As far as paper trading is concerned, I am not in any positions right now, but I am looking for entry points. Of those I am watching, this is what I have to report.
JPM had a bullish day much like SLV. The price movement of the day produced a Harami candlestick on better than average volume and the Stochastic and MACD indicators are in the oversold range. All of this suggest bullish intent. It is my belief that next week it will finally break above the downward trending resistance line I am tracking it with.
PCS also had a bullish day like SLV and JPM. The price movement of the day produced a Harami candlestick on better than average volume, but this time the Stochastic and MACD indicators are in the overbought range. If PCS can open up and close higher, without giving back too much of the intraday gains, it may run in the overbought range for a $1.50 in the stock. That will be acceptable for an option trade of the $7.50Feb10 Call.
PDLI had a bullish day on better than average volume, and it closed above the downward trending resistance line I had been tracking it with. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are pointing up and are not overbought. Except for the fact that the price movement put in a doji candlestick where the close was actually lower than the open, I would think that it was definitely going to go up. I am going to need at least another day of fully bullish trading to be sure about this stock going any higher. Even if it does, I am not expecting any more than $7.75 before it takes a break. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP had a slightly bearish day. Although it attempted to be bullish, too much bearish volume flooded in at the end of the day. The volume was above average and the Stochastic and MACD indicators continue to turn from up to sideways in the overbought range. Considering price movement and the current position of the secondary indicators, a repeat of late Septembers sideways movement seems to be likely, although it is possible that it may go back down to $8 or lower.
EVEP had a solid bearish day. The volume was above average and both the Stochastic and MACD indicators are touching their signal lines in the overbought range. The Stochastic indicator is just starting to turn sideways from up and the MACD indicator sharply turned down. It is my opinion that it will probably pull back between $28 and $27, at least, before changing directions again.
SLV had a slightly bullish day. On very below average volume, it's price movement produced what is known as a Harami candlestick. This is when the body of the day's trading occurs within the range of the body of the previous day's trading, and it is also a bullish candlestick pattern. The Stochastic and MACD indicators have both turned and are touching their signal lines while in the oversold range. Although the candlestick pattern and secondary indicators suggest that a bullish reversal is possible, the volume is weak. A person wanting to get in would be wise to consider this a good time to get it, especially if Monday is a bullish day.
As far as paper trading is concerned, I am not in any positions right now, but I am looking for entry points. Of those I am watching, this is what I have to report.
JPM had a bullish day much like SLV. The price movement of the day produced a Harami candlestick on better than average volume and the Stochastic and MACD indicators are in the oversold range. All of this suggest bullish intent. It is my belief that next week it will finally break above the downward trending resistance line I am tracking it with.
PCS also had a bullish day like SLV and JPM. The price movement of the day produced a Harami candlestick on better than average volume, but this time the Stochastic and MACD indicators are in the overbought range. If PCS can open up and close higher, without giving back too much of the intraday gains, it may run in the overbought range for a $1.50 in the stock. That will be acceptable for an option trade of the $7.50Feb10 Call.
PDLI had a bullish day on better than average volume, and it closed above the downward trending resistance line I had been tracking it with. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are pointing up and are not overbought. Except for the fact that the price movement put in a doji candlestick where the close was actually lower than the open, I would think that it was definitely going to go up. I am going to need at least another day of fully bullish trading to be sure about this stock going any higher. Even if it does, I am not expecting any more than $7.75 before it takes a break. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Portfolio Update
Due to some bad weather in "Sunny" South Florida, this post was put up late. It does, however, reflect my experience, observations, and thoughts on Thursday, December 17, 2009. That being said, the market had a horrible day as the Dow dropped almost 133 point and the majority of the other indices also dropped. With a day like that, it is hard to expect anything good out of my own portfolio. This is how my portfolio fared.
CPLP had a slight bear of a day as it first attempted to break $9, but proved unable. The volume was under average, and the Stochastic and MACD indicators are suggesting that the stock is losing momentum. It is very likely that CPLP will be turning back towards my entry point as the sideways movement it did two months ago is not the norm. But because it has a strong dividend, I will continue to hold it with the expectation that it won't slide back as much as it gained since I got in. I would like to sell a Call Option against it on the decline, but the "market maker" doesn't seem to be issuing any options at the $9 strike price for CPLP. If anyone got in when I did, now would be a good time to lock in profits if quick capital gains is your only concern.
EVEP also had a slight bear of a day as it pulled back under yesterday's close after first gaping up. This move was on slightly greater than average volume and is causing the Stochastic and MACD indicators to lose momentum. My opinion of EVEP is the same as it of CPLP. It has a strong dividend so I am holding on to it. Since the quantity in my position is less than the requirement for an option contract, I can not sell against it. I will try to add to it on the next bounce.
SLV had a solid bearish day in the market. On less than average volume it slipped down over 3%. With the stock market indices dropping in value, the commodity down over 12% from a recent high, and the Stochastic and MACD indicators in the oversold range, it is unexpected to see such behavior, since this is actually the best time to get into a commodity equity with hedging value. I can only speculate as to the reasons why, and I refuse to speculate.
As far as my paper trading is concerned, there is more of the same. PCS and S both slipped in value. So-much-so that both of the stops I called yesterday would have been executed had these trades been real. So I am out of PCS at $2.60 per contract share for a profit of $60, and I am out of S at $0.60 per contract share for a loss of $35. That is a net profit of $25, not including the deduction of would-be commissions.
In other news, JPM also continued to pull back, so I continue to wait for it to break out from it's extended oversold condition. PDLI, however, made an attempt at closing above the downward trending resistance line I am track it with. On slightly better than average volume, it actually survived the day and closed just barely over the resistance trend line. This however, can not be relied upon due to it being a very marginal success. It will have to do better tomorrow. A close of $7.00-$7.25 is what I am targeting. If that is a success I will log a trade into the $7Feb10 Call of PDLI at the last option price. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP had a slight bear of a day as it first attempted to break $9, but proved unable. The volume was under average, and the Stochastic and MACD indicators are suggesting that the stock is losing momentum. It is very likely that CPLP will be turning back towards my entry point as the sideways movement it did two months ago is not the norm. But because it has a strong dividend, I will continue to hold it with the expectation that it won't slide back as much as it gained since I got in. I would like to sell a Call Option against it on the decline, but the "market maker" doesn't seem to be issuing any options at the $9 strike price for CPLP. If anyone got in when I did, now would be a good time to lock in profits if quick capital gains is your only concern.
EVEP also had a slight bear of a day as it pulled back under yesterday's close after first gaping up. This move was on slightly greater than average volume and is causing the Stochastic and MACD indicators to lose momentum. My opinion of EVEP is the same as it of CPLP. It has a strong dividend so I am holding on to it. Since the quantity in my position is less than the requirement for an option contract, I can not sell against it. I will try to add to it on the next bounce.
SLV had a solid bearish day in the market. On less than average volume it slipped down over 3%. With the stock market indices dropping in value, the commodity down over 12% from a recent high, and the Stochastic and MACD indicators in the oversold range, it is unexpected to see such behavior, since this is actually the best time to get into a commodity equity with hedging value. I can only speculate as to the reasons why, and I refuse to speculate.
As far as my paper trading is concerned, there is more of the same. PCS and S both slipped in value. So-much-so that both of the stops I called yesterday would have been executed had these trades been real. So I am out of PCS at $2.60 per contract share for a profit of $60, and I am out of S at $0.60 per contract share for a loss of $35. That is a net profit of $25, not including the deduction of would-be commissions.
In other news, JPM also continued to pull back, so I continue to wait for it to break out from it's extended oversold condition. PDLI, however, made an attempt at closing above the downward trending resistance line I am track it with. On slightly better than average volume, it actually survived the day and closed just barely over the resistance trend line. This however, can not be relied upon due to it being a very marginal success. It will have to do better tomorrow. A close of $7.00-$7.25 is what I am targeting. If that is a success I will log a trade into the $7Feb10 Call of PDLI at the last option price. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Portfolio Update
It was a mixed day in the market. Despite that, I made out pretty well today. Here is how I fared in the market.
CPLP, started out profitable but ended the day unchanged from yesterday's close. The volume was slightly better than average, but the price movement and the weakening Stochastic in the overbought range suggest that it is time for breather in the stock. As is going to be my way with solid dividend paying stocks, I am going to hold on to it while selling Call Options against it for as long as I have sufficient shares.
EVEP had an official bull day for a rise of 2.25%. The volume was better than average, the Stochastic is still strong though in the overbought range, and the MACD is still climbing, as well. Also a solid dividend paying stock, I am going to maintain my hold on the less than option-able amount of shares I have.
MU had a bit of interesting news for me today. I was assigned the responsibility of transferring my shares to the buyer of my options contract three days before the official day of options expiration. So, as a result, I am up the difference of $8.00-7.54 plus the premium of the option I sold (.15), less the total commissions of my brokerage firm. That is an amount of $45.46 or a fraction over 6%. Not bad for 36 day turn around. Unfortunately, I now have to remember to give "Uncle Sam" is share. If I am remembering the scale correctly, it is as much as 35% ($15.91). Oh well, that is still 3.9%. Much better than any bank. One lesson I did learn from this, though. It would have been wiser to wait a week or two before option expiration to sell the option. It would have yielded a much larger reward. So the next time you hear me selling a Call Option on an up trending stock will be after New Year's Day.
SLV had a bull day on less than average volume. It appears that it is encountering the same resistance it encountered in early November at a value of about 17.50. Despite that, the Stochastic and MACD indicators are both in the oversold range again and turning up. This is a long term value play so I am satisfied holding on to it and will continue to hold on to it. I will even be adding to my position over time.
As far as my paper trades go, some good news as well. PCS had a bull day on slightly better than average volume. This produced a gain of 20 cents per contract share to close at 2.65, and the bid is currently higher than the last trade price at 2.70. As a result I can raise my stop loss to 2.60. It may even rally higher as the Stochastic and MACD indicators are both still pointing up.
S, on the other hand, only had a slightly bull day after some early market turbulence. Since I can't tell right now, due to some technical difficulties, how bad it got during the morning, I have to go by the close which was only down 2 cents to .67 per contract share. As a result my stop loss of .60 is still in place. What I see in the stock is that the Stochastic indicator is turning back up and the MACD indicator is slowing it's decent. This could be because of the hard bounce back up over the upward trend line that I have been tracking it with. It seems the second of my two prognostications is the more likely behavior to take place.
In other news, neither JPM or PDLI broke above the downward trending resistance lines I have been tracking them against. PDLI only had a micro bull of a day on less than average volume, but could not sustain the majority of the intraday gains. As such, the MACD indicators is showing the beginning signs of reversing while still be under the zero line, while the Stochastic indicator is just emerging from the over sold range.
JPM had a slightly better bull day on greater than average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both in the over sold range but are showing signs of strengthening. I am becoming more convinced that this will be the one to profit the most as the set up is ripening for a brake out. I am thinking maybe $2 dollars worth of stock movement so I will be paper trading the $40Mar10 or $41Mar10 Call Option after the breakout occurs. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP, started out profitable but ended the day unchanged from yesterday's close. The volume was slightly better than average, but the price movement and the weakening Stochastic in the overbought range suggest that it is time for breather in the stock. As is going to be my way with solid dividend paying stocks, I am going to hold on to it while selling Call Options against it for as long as I have sufficient shares.
EVEP had an official bull day for a rise of 2.25%. The volume was better than average, the Stochastic is still strong though in the overbought range, and the MACD is still climbing, as well. Also a solid dividend paying stock, I am going to maintain my hold on the less than option-able amount of shares I have.
MU had a bit of interesting news for me today. I was assigned the responsibility of transferring my shares to the buyer of my options contract three days before the official day of options expiration. So, as a result, I am up the difference of $8.00-7.54 plus the premium of the option I sold (.15), less the total commissions of my brokerage firm. That is an amount of $45.46 or a fraction over 6%. Not bad for 36 day turn around. Unfortunately, I now have to remember to give "Uncle Sam" is share. If I am remembering the scale correctly, it is as much as 35% ($15.91). Oh well, that is still 3.9%. Much better than any bank. One lesson I did learn from this, though. It would have been wiser to wait a week or two before option expiration to sell the option. It would have yielded a much larger reward. So the next time you hear me selling a Call Option on an up trending stock will be after New Year's Day.
SLV had a bull day on less than average volume. It appears that it is encountering the same resistance it encountered in early November at a value of about 17.50. Despite that, the Stochastic and MACD indicators are both in the oversold range again and turning up. This is a long term value play so I am satisfied holding on to it and will continue to hold on to it. I will even be adding to my position over time.
As far as my paper trades go, some good news as well. PCS had a bull day on slightly better than average volume. This produced a gain of 20 cents per contract share to close at 2.65, and the bid is currently higher than the last trade price at 2.70. As a result I can raise my stop loss to 2.60. It may even rally higher as the Stochastic and MACD indicators are both still pointing up.
S, on the other hand, only had a slightly bull day after some early market turbulence. Since I can't tell right now, due to some technical difficulties, how bad it got during the morning, I have to go by the close which was only down 2 cents to .67 per contract share. As a result my stop loss of .60 is still in place. What I see in the stock is that the Stochastic indicator is turning back up and the MACD indicator is slowing it's decent. This could be because of the hard bounce back up over the upward trend line that I have been tracking it with. It seems the second of my two prognostications is the more likely behavior to take place.
In other news, neither JPM or PDLI broke above the downward trending resistance lines I have been tracking them against. PDLI only had a micro bull of a day on less than average volume, but could not sustain the majority of the intraday gains. As such, the MACD indicators is showing the beginning signs of reversing while still be under the zero line, while the Stochastic indicator is just emerging from the over sold range.
JPM had a slightly better bull day on greater than average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both in the over sold range but are showing signs of strengthening. I am becoming more convinced that this will be the one to profit the most as the set up is ripening for a brake out. I am thinking maybe $2 dollars worth of stock movement so I will be paper trading the $40Mar10 or $41Mar10 Call Option after the breakout occurs. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Portfolio Update
The market was depressing today in general. Only a select set of equities had any gains. Strangely enough, I was in a few of those select set. Here is how it affected my portfolio.
CPLP was up a little over 50 cents on volume that was greater than average and a little over that of yesterday, a strong 6.33% move. It had more but pulled back late in the day. There is a conflict in the Stochastic indicator as it is pulled back while in the overbought range, but the MACD indicator is still pointing up sharply, so the stochastic pull back may only be related to the late day pull back of the stock. It does still look strong for $10 in the near term. Since I am in it for the long term dividend payout, I will not be setting a stop on it. There is probably too little time to sell a Call Option against it but I will try if the occasion presents itself before expiration this weekend.
EVEP was up on fractionally stronger than average volume. The Stochastic indicator has made its way into the overbought range, and the MACD is relatively high. It is likely that it will start to pull back soon. This is also a dividend paying stock but I don't have enough shares to sell a Call Option against my position, so I will continue to just watch it.
MU had a bear of a day as it makes it's first pull back from the $9 range. Both the MACD and Stochastic indicators are overbought and starting to turn down. The move down was only 18 cents. but there are still three days left until option expiration. There is a fair chance that it could drop below $8 before then.
SLV had a mini bull day. It originally opened lower, but later as the day progressed, regained it's value plus a penny. As was postulated, it is drifting sideways for now.
My current paper trade are opposite each other. PCS made gains on a strong break on better than average gains and the Call Option I am paper trading made me profits as it should under those conditions. Since I also have some profits and the Stochastic and MACD indicators are in the overbought range, it is time to set a stop to lock in profits. As the bid is 2.35, I will say 2.30 is my stop.
S, on the other hand, pulled back all the way to the upward trending support line I am gauging it's trend with. There is also a downward trending resistance line of the previous pull back intersecting at about the same price. These intersections are decision makers usually. If it breaks and stays below the downward trending line, it will usually continue down for at least a few days. If it closes above the line, it will usually start to trend sideways to slightly downwards along the line for a little while as the Stochastic and MACD reset. I'd rather not speculate an opinion on it. But if the price of the option drops to 60 cents, I want out. I am calling my stop on it at 60 cents. That is much later than I should have set it. It results in a 37% loss.
In other news, JPM and PDLI both pulled away from the trend lines I was using as my break out points to get into them as paper trades. That being the case, I have nothing to say about them. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP was up a little over 50 cents on volume that was greater than average and a little over that of yesterday, a strong 6.33% move. It had more but pulled back late in the day. There is a conflict in the Stochastic indicator as it is pulled back while in the overbought range, but the MACD indicator is still pointing up sharply, so the stochastic pull back may only be related to the late day pull back of the stock. It does still look strong for $10 in the near term. Since I am in it for the long term dividend payout, I will not be setting a stop on it. There is probably too little time to sell a Call Option against it but I will try if the occasion presents itself before expiration this weekend.
EVEP was up on fractionally stronger than average volume. The Stochastic indicator has made its way into the overbought range, and the MACD is relatively high. It is likely that it will start to pull back soon. This is also a dividend paying stock but I don't have enough shares to sell a Call Option against my position, so I will continue to just watch it.
MU had a bear of a day as it makes it's first pull back from the $9 range. Both the MACD and Stochastic indicators are overbought and starting to turn down. The move down was only 18 cents. but there are still three days left until option expiration. There is a fair chance that it could drop below $8 before then.
SLV had a mini bull day. It originally opened lower, but later as the day progressed, regained it's value plus a penny. As was postulated, it is drifting sideways for now.
My current paper trade are opposite each other. PCS made gains on a strong break on better than average gains and the Call Option I am paper trading made me profits as it should under those conditions. Since I also have some profits and the Stochastic and MACD indicators are in the overbought range, it is time to set a stop to lock in profits. As the bid is 2.35, I will say 2.30 is my stop.
S, on the other hand, pulled back all the way to the upward trending support line I am gauging it's trend with. There is also a downward trending resistance line of the previous pull back intersecting at about the same price. These intersections are decision makers usually. If it breaks and stays below the downward trending line, it will usually continue down for at least a few days. If it closes above the line, it will usually start to trend sideways to slightly downwards along the line for a little while as the Stochastic and MACD reset. I'd rather not speculate an opinion on it. But if the price of the option drops to 60 cents, I want out. I am calling my stop on it at 60 cents. That is much later than I should have set it. It results in a 37% loss.
In other news, JPM and PDLI both pulled away from the trend lines I was using as my break out points to get into them as paper trades. That being the case, I have nothing to say about them. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Monday, December 14, 2009
Portfolio Update
Monday was a mediocre day in the market. There were some moves made in the Automotive Parts, Basic Materials, Oil & Gas, and Transports, as well as the Mid- and Small-Caps indices. However, the general averages barely moved at all. In my portfolio the following occurred.
CPLP made the bold bull move I had been expecting of it since I took a position in it two weeks ago. With a gain of 47 cents and better than average volume it broke through resistance and challenged the 200-day moving average. At the close of the day it maintained a gain of almost 6%. The MACD indicator has broken above it's zero line, and the Stochastic indicator has broken into my overbought range of 75+. It is my opinion that it will do something similar to what it did back in late September and October where it eventually ran up to $10.49 per share and then pulled back. I don't believe it will pull back as much as it did in November, but that is any one's guess at this point. I am currently trying to sell the $10DEC09 Call against my stock before expiration this Friday. However, I don't think it will happen as the premium I am asking for is probably higher than the market will bare. I actually do want to keep this stock as the dividend is very good.
EVEP mad fractional gains today on better than average volume. With the MACD and Stochastic indicators being in or near overbought most of last week, the rate of change has peaked and is currently declining. This suggests that the rally is coming to an end, although there may be a couple micro rallies until it pulls back. My guess is that the pull back will be to about $26.20.
FPL jumped and then pulled back on slightly greater than average volume. Considering that it has been on an ever steepening incline and the MACD and Stochastic indicators have been in the overbought range for a couple of weeks, not to mention I was holding a considerable profit on it, I had been setting stops on it for a few days in expectation of this pull back. And as a result of my stop, I have been stopped out with the vast majority of my gains. Finally, an option play that has paid off. Still not going to be doing Naked Calls until I get better with my paper trades of them. But I will mention later one or two that are on my mind.
MU made even more gains, but on less than average volume. At the close of the market, MU is challenging the resistance level made back in October. With the MACD and Stochastic indicators in the overbought range and 4 days until Option expiration, this could be the point of no return for my Covered Call. Considering what happened at this same point back in October, there is the small possibility that my stock won't be assigned to the buyer of my option. However, I don't really care as I am not interested in long-term holds of non-dividend paying stocks. If it doesn't get assigned I will just sell another Call against this stock.
SLV had a bull day, but on less than average volume. In addition, with the MACD and Stochastic indicators in the oversold area and the MACD already turning, I am inclined to believe that the price movement of the near future will be a shallow turn. After the turn completes, I am suspecting a rally to about $21.80 per share. Since I have under 100 shares in the ETF, I can't sell any options against it. I would like to sell a Naked Put as I want more of SLV so I can sell Calls against it, but currently my brokerage account won't let me, and I don't have enough capital in it to be able to cover such an option play or buy more stock straight up.
Earlier in my update about FPL I mentioned that I had one or two option plays I would like to make. Because I don't have personal confidence in my ability to make them work out right now, I am going to mention them for the purpose of paper trading them.
JPM is the first stock that is on my mind for a Naked Call play. It has pulled back about 40% from it's most recent peak and has been bouncing off that level for a little over a month. Before it's most recent rally, it did the same thing back in May through July. Following that it ran up $15. The situation now is that it made a move up of almost 2% on just slightly greater than average volume. The price movement has been consolidating for the past 60 days and the MACD and Stochastic indicators are both in the oversold area and have turned up. All that considered leads me to believe that if it can break above the current downward trending resistance line, which is intersecting with it's 20-day moving average, there is a good chance for it to challenge it's 50-day moving average which is currently at the same level as the previous peak of the downward trend. If both of those occur I am inclined to believe that there is a good chance for JPM to rally to $52. I will make a paper trade on it if it breaks the current resistance level I mentioned.
PDLI is the second stock that is on my mind for a Naked Call play. It has pulled back enormously in the past two weeks and is trying to rally back. Currently it is under a trend line that formed about 30 days ago. The MACD and Stochastic indicators show that the stock is way oversold and suggests that it is fighting to break out. If it actually does break above the earlier formed trend line, then I believe it will rally to the next one shortly afterwards. That rally will be less than a dollar in value, but I believe that it will most likely break through the newer trend line with little hesitation. But that second trend line is the true test. After that there is a good $1.50 range before anymore resistance. With a value of $7 dollars, it would also make for a fare Covered Call play, as well. Just one big problem with the stock in my mind, it is a pharmaceutical. The release of one report, good or bad, will cause the stock to gap in either direction. Recently, it was a gap down of over $1. I will make a paper trade on it if it breaks the current resistance level I mentioned. I am only paper trading it for practice. Typically, I don't believe I would ever trade get involved in it.
As for my current paper trades, both the underlying stock for PCS and S closed lower. However, my PCS Call option registered a small gain for reasons I can only speculate on. For PCS the MACD and Stochastic indicators are in the overbought range and leveling off, suggesting that their isn't much rally to be had. There will probably be a pull back but I can't identify the intensity as the oscillations in the indicators are conflicting. For S the MACD and Stochastic indicators, continue to decline as the price movement resists declining on lower than average volume. This could be a good indication that the pull back will only be marginal and then the rally will break through resistance. A couple more days of this shallow price movement will help to verify this prognostication.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP made the bold bull move I had been expecting of it since I took a position in it two weeks ago. With a gain of 47 cents and better than average volume it broke through resistance and challenged the 200-day moving average. At the close of the day it maintained a gain of almost 6%. The MACD indicator has broken above it's zero line, and the Stochastic indicator has broken into my overbought range of 75+. It is my opinion that it will do something similar to what it did back in late September and October where it eventually ran up to $10.49 per share and then pulled back. I don't believe it will pull back as much as it did in November, but that is any one's guess at this point. I am currently trying to sell the $10DEC09 Call against my stock before expiration this Friday. However, I don't think it will happen as the premium I am asking for is probably higher than the market will bare. I actually do want to keep this stock as the dividend is very good.
EVEP mad fractional gains today on better than average volume. With the MACD and Stochastic indicators being in or near overbought most of last week, the rate of change has peaked and is currently declining. This suggests that the rally is coming to an end, although there may be a couple micro rallies until it pulls back. My guess is that the pull back will be to about $26.20.
FPL jumped and then pulled back on slightly greater than average volume. Considering that it has been on an ever steepening incline and the MACD and Stochastic indicators have been in the overbought range for a couple of weeks, not to mention I was holding a considerable profit on it, I had been setting stops on it for a few days in expectation of this pull back. And as a result of my stop, I have been stopped out with the vast majority of my gains. Finally, an option play that has paid off. Still not going to be doing Naked Calls until I get better with my paper trades of them. But I will mention later one or two that are on my mind.
MU made even more gains, but on less than average volume. At the close of the market, MU is challenging the resistance level made back in October. With the MACD and Stochastic indicators in the overbought range and 4 days until Option expiration, this could be the point of no return for my Covered Call. Considering what happened at this same point back in October, there is the small possibility that my stock won't be assigned to the buyer of my option. However, I don't really care as I am not interested in long-term holds of non-dividend paying stocks. If it doesn't get assigned I will just sell another Call against this stock.
SLV had a bull day, but on less than average volume. In addition, with the MACD and Stochastic indicators in the oversold area and the MACD already turning, I am inclined to believe that the price movement of the near future will be a shallow turn. After the turn completes, I am suspecting a rally to about $21.80 per share. Since I have under 100 shares in the ETF, I can't sell any options against it. I would like to sell a Naked Put as I want more of SLV so I can sell Calls against it, but currently my brokerage account won't let me, and I don't have enough capital in it to be able to cover such an option play or buy more stock straight up.
Earlier in my update about FPL I mentioned that I had one or two option plays I would like to make. Because I don't have personal confidence in my ability to make them work out right now, I am going to mention them for the purpose of paper trading them.
JPM is the first stock that is on my mind for a Naked Call play. It has pulled back about 40% from it's most recent peak and has been bouncing off that level for a little over a month. Before it's most recent rally, it did the same thing back in May through July. Following that it ran up $15. The situation now is that it made a move up of almost 2% on just slightly greater than average volume. The price movement has been consolidating for the past 60 days and the MACD and Stochastic indicators are both in the oversold area and have turned up. All that considered leads me to believe that if it can break above the current downward trending resistance line, which is intersecting with it's 20-day moving average, there is a good chance for it to challenge it's 50-day moving average which is currently at the same level as the previous peak of the downward trend. If both of those occur I am inclined to believe that there is a good chance for JPM to rally to $52. I will make a paper trade on it if it breaks the current resistance level I mentioned.
PDLI is the second stock that is on my mind for a Naked Call play. It has pulled back enormously in the past two weeks and is trying to rally back. Currently it is under a trend line that formed about 30 days ago. The MACD and Stochastic indicators show that the stock is way oversold and suggests that it is fighting to break out. If it actually does break above the earlier formed trend line, then I believe it will rally to the next one shortly afterwards. That rally will be less than a dollar in value, but I believe that it will most likely break through the newer trend line with little hesitation. But that second trend line is the true test. After that there is a good $1.50 range before anymore resistance. With a value of $7 dollars, it would also make for a fare Covered Call play, as well. Just one big problem with the stock in my mind, it is a pharmaceutical. The release of one report, good or bad, will cause the stock to gap in either direction. Recently, it was a gap down of over $1. I will make a paper trade on it if it breaks the current resistance level I mentioned. I am only paper trading it for practice. Typically, I don't believe I would ever trade get involved in it.
As for my current paper trades, both the underlying stock for PCS and S closed lower. However, my PCS Call option registered a small gain for reasons I can only speculate on. For PCS the MACD and Stochastic indicators are in the overbought range and leveling off, suggesting that their isn't much rally to be had. There will probably be a pull back but I can't identify the intensity as the oscillations in the indicators are conflicting. For S the MACD and Stochastic indicators, continue to decline as the price movement resists declining on lower than average volume. This could be a good indication that the pull back will only be marginal and then the rally will break through resistance. A couple more days of this shallow price movement will help to verify this prognostication.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Friday, December 11, 2009
Portfolio Update
It is said that 'patience is a virtue.' And it is a virtue I am in short supply of. I hope it isn't presumptuous but I would like to thank God for the amount he has given me. So this is the reason for my happiness today.
CPLP took another stab at breaking through the resistance line of the sideways channel it is in. Unfortunately, today was not the day for it to stay above that line. The fortunate thing is that it did break through and although it retraced back under resistance, it still kept 10 cents per share. I am still optimistic as the MACD and Stochastic lines continue to grow in strength. All that is needed is a strong volume day.
EVEP had a bullish day, but the candlestick pattern is almost that of a hangman, a body that illustrates that the closing price made an obvious change from the opening with a long lower shadow. Interestingly, it actually closed at the same high it made yesterday. Usually hangman candlestick patterns suggest a reversal is likely, but the body of this particular candlestick is about the same length as the shadow. This devalues the negative potential of the pattern. However, it is still wise to analyze this in connection with the slightly better than average volume, Stochastic lines moving sideways near overbought levels, and the MACD lines having climbed steeply above the zero line for the past three days. After doing that I am still inclined to believe that the immediate upward cycle is over or nearing it's end but I will be waiting for confirmation next.
FPL had a really bullish day and is the main reason for my happiness today. Not only was the day a bullish day for FPL, it started at the resistance line of the upward channel it was in, broke through, and closed well above it. Volume was stronger than average two days in a row and the secondary indicators, although in the range of overbought, are still strong. I have been tightening my stops for the last three tree sessions and will being doing it again as I would much rather keep as much of what I have been given by the market instead of being a pig and losing most of it to unrealistic expectations that it may continue to go up after slipping back.
MU didn't have a bullish day today. Instead, it had a decapitated hangman of a day. What I mean is that it had a very narrow move down from it's open, and barley even went below where it closed, creating a very short shadow. Similar to my earlier statement about the hangman-like move EVEP made today, there is not much value in a hangman day where the lower shadow is not longer than the body of the candlestick in terms of multiples. However, like EVEP, the secondary indicators are also suggesting the end of the run is near. Since my interest in this stock was primarily for the benefit of the premium I received when I sold a Call Option option against it, I am still not at all concerned about the direction that it is taking.
SLV also did not have a bullish day. In fact it was a little less favorable than I expected. It hit a lower low today as it broke below the lows that it bounced off of for the past two days prior, but closed just above them. The price movement of the day, however, was another hammer. In comparison to the hangman candlesticks of EVEP and MU, this one is suppose to be more favorable as the shadow on it is about two times the length of the body the price movement created. Also since, silver is suppose to be "real" money, and the value of it is completely tied to supply and demand. I am very unlikely to ever sell it unless I have a greater amount of it at a much greater price. In regards to secondary indicators and the rate of change in the ETF, it all tells me that if I had more cash/currency on hand, I should buy more as it should be reversing soon. But so is life, I do not have the capital at this time.
As far as my paper trades are concerned, PCS and S both moved slightly higher today, but their probabilities of continuing higher still haven't changed. In fact, the price movement of these stocks actually opened higher and then drifted down, just not the full amount that it opened up. In addition, based on the direction and position of the secondary indicators of these two stocks, I don't have a lot of confidence that it will continue to go up right now. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP took another stab at breaking through the resistance line of the sideways channel it is in. Unfortunately, today was not the day for it to stay above that line. The fortunate thing is that it did break through and although it retraced back under resistance, it still kept 10 cents per share. I am still optimistic as the MACD and Stochastic lines continue to grow in strength. All that is needed is a strong volume day.
EVEP had a bullish day, but the candlestick pattern is almost that of a hangman, a body that illustrates that the closing price made an obvious change from the opening with a long lower shadow. Interestingly, it actually closed at the same high it made yesterday. Usually hangman candlestick patterns suggest a reversal is likely, but the body of this particular candlestick is about the same length as the shadow. This devalues the negative potential of the pattern. However, it is still wise to analyze this in connection with the slightly better than average volume, Stochastic lines moving sideways near overbought levels, and the MACD lines having climbed steeply above the zero line for the past three days. After doing that I am still inclined to believe that the immediate upward cycle is over or nearing it's end but I will be waiting for confirmation next.
FPL had a really bullish day and is the main reason for my happiness today. Not only was the day a bullish day for FPL, it started at the resistance line of the upward channel it was in, broke through, and closed well above it. Volume was stronger than average two days in a row and the secondary indicators, although in the range of overbought, are still strong. I have been tightening my stops for the last three tree sessions and will being doing it again as I would much rather keep as much of what I have been given by the market instead of being a pig and losing most of it to unrealistic expectations that it may continue to go up after slipping back.
MU didn't have a bullish day today. Instead, it had a decapitated hangman of a day. What I mean is that it had a very narrow move down from it's open, and barley even went below where it closed, creating a very short shadow. Similar to my earlier statement about the hangman-like move EVEP made today, there is not much value in a hangman day where the lower shadow is not longer than the body of the candlestick in terms of multiples. However, like EVEP, the secondary indicators are also suggesting the end of the run is near. Since my interest in this stock was primarily for the benefit of the premium I received when I sold a Call Option option against it, I am still not at all concerned about the direction that it is taking.
SLV also did not have a bullish day. In fact it was a little less favorable than I expected. It hit a lower low today as it broke below the lows that it bounced off of for the past two days prior, but closed just above them. The price movement of the day, however, was another hammer. In comparison to the hangman candlesticks of EVEP and MU, this one is suppose to be more favorable as the shadow on it is about two times the length of the body the price movement created. Also since, silver is suppose to be "real" money, and the value of it is completely tied to supply and demand. I am very unlikely to ever sell it unless I have a greater amount of it at a much greater price. In regards to secondary indicators and the rate of change in the ETF, it all tells me that if I had more cash/currency on hand, I should buy more as it should be reversing soon. But so is life, I do not have the capital at this time.
As far as my paper trades are concerned, PCS and S both moved slightly higher today, but their probabilities of continuing higher still haven't changed. In fact, the price movement of these stocks actually opened higher and then drifted down, just not the full amount that it opened up. In addition, based on the direction and position of the secondary indicators of these two stocks, I don't have a lot of confidence that it will continue to go up right now. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Portfolio Update
I am pleased to announce that on this moderately bullish day, I made some really nice unrealized profits. So lets get to it.
CPLP had a bullish day. Unfortunately, it was only two cents and the volume was low. At some point during the day, it once again challenged the high of the channel it has been trading in for the past month. Including the fact that the moving average and signal line of the MACD are brushing just under the zero line like it was in mid-September, I believe that it may be ready to break out, finally. Unfortunately I am not sure how long or how much it may go for. Right now I estimate about $10-$10.50.
EVEP had a really swinging bull day. It closed moderately higher than it's open but through-out the day it both dropped well below the close of the previous day and rose just enough to put in a new high. The volume for the past two days has been better than the average, however, not by much. The run up for this stock may be over with. Taking that into consideration, as well as the fact that it is a dividend paying stock, I am inclined to sell a call option against it as it pulls back. I will consider this after I get an indicator that this may be the peek for this cycle.
FPL had a completely bull day, and is my primary reason for being pleased today. From open until close, it was more than less all gains. With over a dollar move up and volume that was a little better than average, the unrealized profits are of the kind that option traders look forward to, and I am glad that I am in an option at this time. But that being said, the secondary indicators suggest that it has been over bought for a little while this cycle. Because I don't want to be a pig, I am going to, again, tighten my stop on it in hopes of keeping as much of it as I can. I've got to remember the first rule of investing, "Don't lose your money!"
MU again had a moderately bull day on less than average volume. The momentum of the secondary indicators is slowing down, suggesting that a gradual change of direction or sideways trend is forming. With 9 days left until option expiration, the chance of my shares not being called away from me is quickly slipping away. Again, this is fine by me since the stock doesn't pay dividends.
SLV is the only position I am in that did not have a bull day. However, what it did today was challenge the bottom it hit yesterday on volume that was less than average. The moving average and signal line of the MACD still continued to drift below the zero line, and the Stochastic %K and %D lines continued down as well. The final change in price resulted in what is known as a hammer candlestick. When occurring after a down trend, hammer's usually suggests that the trend is reversing. If this turns out to be true tomorrow, I will be in an even greater mood tomorrow since I bought into SLV yesterday when it hit this bottom.
As for my paper trades in the options market, both of my positions had a bullish day although only the PCS stock went up. From what I can tell this occurred because people bought into S only at the open, but no one else considered it worth their time the rest of the day. S actually fell below it's 200-day moving average after breaking above it yesterday and a couple days before that. Yesterday, S actually put in a bearish gravestone like doji candlestick. This implies that today's down day is confirmation that it will continue to fall. PCS, however, broke back above it's 50-day moving average. I currently have more faith that PCS is going to rally than S. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP had a bullish day. Unfortunately, it was only two cents and the volume was low. At some point during the day, it once again challenged the high of the channel it has been trading in for the past month. Including the fact that the moving average and signal line of the MACD are brushing just under the zero line like it was in mid-September, I believe that it may be ready to break out, finally. Unfortunately I am not sure how long or how much it may go for. Right now I estimate about $10-$10.50.
EVEP had a really swinging bull day. It closed moderately higher than it's open but through-out the day it both dropped well below the close of the previous day and rose just enough to put in a new high. The volume for the past two days has been better than the average, however, not by much. The run up for this stock may be over with. Taking that into consideration, as well as the fact that it is a dividend paying stock, I am inclined to sell a call option against it as it pulls back. I will consider this after I get an indicator that this may be the peek for this cycle.
FPL had a completely bull day, and is my primary reason for being pleased today. From open until close, it was more than less all gains. With over a dollar move up and volume that was a little better than average, the unrealized profits are of the kind that option traders look forward to, and I am glad that I am in an option at this time. But that being said, the secondary indicators suggest that it has been over bought for a little while this cycle. Because I don't want to be a pig, I am going to, again, tighten my stop on it in hopes of keeping as much of it as I can. I've got to remember the first rule of investing, "Don't lose your money!"
MU again had a moderately bull day on less than average volume. The momentum of the secondary indicators is slowing down, suggesting that a gradual change of direction or sideways trend is forming. With 9 days left until option expiration, the chance of my shares not being called away from me is quickly slipping away. Again, this is fine by me since the stock doesn't pay dividends.
SLV is the only position I am in that did not have a bull day. However, what it did today was challenge the bottom it hit yesterday on volume that was less than average. The moving average and signal line of the MACD still continued to drift below the zero line, and the Stochastic %K and %D lines continued down as well. The final change in price resulted in what is known as a hammer candlestick. When occurring after a down trend, hammer's usually suggests that the trend is reversing. If this turns out to be true tomorrow, I will be in an even greater mood tomorrow since I bought into SLV yesterday when it hit this bottom.
As for my paper trades in the options market, both of my positions had a bullish day although only the PCS stock went up. From what I can tell this occurred because people bought into S only at the open, but no one else considered it worth their time the rest of the day. S actually fell below it's 200-day moving average after breaking above it yesterday and a couple days before that. Yesterday, S actually put in a bearish gravestone like doji candlestick. This implies that today's down day is confirmation that it will continue to fall. PCS, however, broke back above it's 50-day moving average. I currently have more faith that PCS is going to rally than S. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Portfolio Update
It was only a moderately bullish day in the equity markets today. The precious metal commodities continued to slide in value and the treasuries followed also. This is an anomaly as the treasuries usually go up when gold and silver come down. As for me the, the following details show I did.
CPLP had a slightly bearish day. The price movement was only slightly down on light volume. It remains on the upper side of a very narrow channel. The momentum seems to be shifting down, but only slowly. It will need to have bigger moves on much higher volume to sway my current opinion on it.
CVX had a bounce off of it's 50-day moving average for a bullish day. This bounce, however, occurred after I got myself stopped out of the Call Option for a loss greater than 50%. The volume on this bull move was light and the price movement was modest. I don't believe it is reversing yet. I think this was only a small pull back.
EVEP had a very bullish day. It rose well above the upward trending resistance line of the channel it had been traveling in. The volume was above average and the secondary indicators are in agreement with the likelihood of more future growth. The only negative is the long upper shadow that was formed as the stock pulled back late in the trading day. Everything being considered, I believe it will probably be pulling back to test the support at the resistance line it just blew through. After that, I believe it most likely will continue to run.
FPL had a modest bull day. The movement was enough to get the bid and ask of my option on it to move higher, but it doesn't seem like anyone was interested in buying or selling. The official last price on the option was unchanged. I can't let myself get too comfortable with these option plays, so I tightened up the stop-limit order to match the increase in the bid and ask so far.
MU had a fractionally bearish day in the market. Strangely enough, it still affected the underlying Call Option I have Sold-To-Open against it. The volume has been weak the past few trading days and the secondary indicators have been gradually turning downward. I am finding it hard to believe that the stock is not in the process of a pull back to under the $8 strike price of my option. The questions I don't have an answer for is, how long will it take to get to that level and how long before it goes up again.
SLV had a bearish day in the market. However, I was half hoping for this continued pull back and for a bounce. It appears I may have gotten both. Today's candlestick pattern is a bearish body with a long lower shadow. This produced what I think are two good things for me. First, the long lower shadow dipped down low enough for my low ball purchase order to get executed. Second, a candlestick with a long lower shadow is usually a reversal indicator. It is possible that I just got in at the very bottom of this pull back of 10% so far.
As for my paper trades in the Options Market, I have mixed results. PCS pulled back just a little pit on light volume. The secondary indicators suggest that the channel it has been in may continue to be it's home for some time now. S, however, rose on strong volume. It officially started and stopped above the 200-day moving average. There is precedence that once a stock does this, the value starts to take off. Also, it has established itself in an upward trend that is more than steep enough to make money on every up turn.
Overall, I am almost done weaning myself off of Naked Calls. All that is left is FPL. Following that my use of Options will be to sell against stock that I do have, and collect the premiums. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP had a slightly bearish day. The price movement was only slightly down on light volume. It remains on the upper side of a very narrow channel. The momentum seems to be shifting down, but only slowly. It will need to have bigger moves on much higher volume to sway my current opinion on it.
CVX had a bounce off of it's 50-day moving average for a bullish day. This bounce, however, occurred after I got myself stopped out of the Call Option for a loss greater than 50%. The volume on this bull move was light and the price movement was modest. I don't believe it is reversing yet. I think this was only a small pull back.
EVEP had a very bullish day. It rose well above the upward trending resistance line of the channel it had been traveling in. The volume was above average and the secondary indicators are in agreement with the likelihood of more future growth. The only negative is the long upper shadow that was formed as the stock pulled back late in the trading day. Everything being considered, I believe it will probably be pulling back to test the support at the resistance line it just blew through. After that, I believe it most likely will continue to run.
FPL had a modest bull day. The movement was enough to get the bid and ask of my option on it to move higher, but it doesn't seem like anyone was interested in buying or selling. The official last price on the option was unchanged. I can't let myself get too comfortable with these option plays, so I tightened up the stop-limit order to match the increase in the bid and ask so far.
MU had a fractionally bearish day in the market. Strangely enough, it still affected the underlying Call Option I have Sold-To-Open against it. The volume has been weak the past few trading days and the secondary indicators have been gradually turning downward. I am finding it hard to believe that the stock is not in the process of a pull back to under the $8 strike price of my option. The questions I don't have an answer for is, how long will it take to get to that level and how long before it goes up again.
SLV had a bearish day in the market. However, I was half hoping for this continued pull back and for a bounce. It appears I may have gotten both. Today's candlestick pattern is a bearish body with a long lower shadow. This produced what I think are two good things for me. First, the long lower shadow dipped down low enough for my low ball purchase order to get executed. Second, a candlestick with a long lower shadow is usually a reversal indicator. It is possible that I just got in at the very bottom of this pull back of 10% so far.
As for my paper trades in the Options Market, I have mixed results. PCS pulled back just a little pit on light volume. The secondary indicators suggest that the channel it has been in may continue to be it's home for some time now. S, however, rose on strong volume. It officially started and stopped above the 200-day moving average. There is precedence that once a stock does this, the value starts to take off. Also, it has established itself in an upward trend that is more than steep enough to make money on every up turn.
Overall, I am almost done weaning myself off of Naked Calls. All that is left is FPL. Following that my use of Options will be to sell against stock that I do have, and collect the premiums. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Supplemental Post: Gold ETF Pulled Back, Ready to Run?
This is a supplemental post to my usual portfolio updates. I am making this post because I finally got a chance to do the math on the Gold ETF, GLD, and compare it to my previous posts. The information in this post is in reference to information recorded as of the market close on Tuesday, December 8, 2009.
Three days prior to the above mentioned market close, I wrote about how the Gold ETF, GLD, had already dropped 4.6%. That amount was only two-thirds of the way to my predicted sell-off amount. On the following two days, it continued to drop in price almost another 3%. The first day it gaped down and then climbed up, only to retrace one-third of the way back. The second day it drifted down, and then bounced back up a little.
The total over the past four trading days is a loss of a little under 7%. This puts it exactly on track with my prognostication. What we need now is a bounce. But looking back over the ETFs previous movements, it appears that it may actually pull back another 3%. This would be more or less a full 10% correction, an unexpected surprise considering all the economic bad news and hype of gold as a hedge against currency devaluation. All things considered, I am inclined to believe that another 3% is possible, but I am still of the mind that there is another bull move about to happen. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Three days prior to the above mentioned market close, I wrote about how the Gold ETF, GLD, had already dropped 4.6%. That amount was only two-thirds of the way to my predicted sell-off amount. On the following two days, it continued to drop in price almost another 3%. The first day it gaped down and then climbed up, only to retrace one-third of the way back. The second day it drifted down, and then bounced back up a little.
The total over the past four trading days is a loss of a little under 7%. This puts it exactly on track with my prognostication. What we need now is a bounce. But looking back over the ETFs previous movements, it appears that it may actually pull back another 3%. This would be more or less a full 10% correction, an unexpected surprise considering all the economic bad news and hype of gold as a hedge against currency devaluation. All things considered, I am inclined to believe that another 3% is possible, but I am still of the mind that there is another bull move about to happen. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Portfolio Update
Today, just about every market went down. It could even be said that the treasuries had a bearish day as they pulled back after gaping up. That being said, this is how I did.
CPLP had a down day, but only by a few cents. My position in this stock still remains profitable. However, I am not concerned about it loosing value since it is a dividend paying stock with options. I will add to my position in the event that it drops and sell calls against it.
CVX had a drastically down day today. It even fell below the supporting trend line of it's channel. The secondary indicators are weak and weakening with no sign of recovery in the near future. As a result, my option is looking deplorable. I am putting in a stop-limit order to get out tomorrow.
EVEP had a down day, but it started up a little. There is weakness in the secondary indicators and the current bid and ask brackets the last price of the day. It could go either way. The good news is that it is a dividend paying stock with options. I am not worried if it goes down in price. I will add to my position in the event that it does go down.
FPL had an up day, but it's movement through out the day kept it depressed in the options market. As a result it remained unchanged. The secondary indicators suggest that it may be reversing soon. Since this is an option play, I want to lock in my profits. I will do this by tightening my stop-limit order.
MU had another bullish day. With 11 days left until expiration, there is little indication that it will pull back to the strike price of the Call Option I sold against it. It is only 12 cents from it's intraday high of a few days ago. And that is 28 cents away from the next strike price. It is all but certain that this non-dividend paying stock will be called away from me. Not a problem for me as this was intentional.
SLV had a down day. In fact, it blew through two supporting trend lines. I am suspecting even more loses in the next few days. As this is an ETF on the commodity silver, I will try to dollar cost average it by buying more if it drops below $17. I probably should have tried buying a Put Option on it a couple days ago. Live and learn.
As for the two paper trades I am in, PCS and S both went down. As a result, PCS is now even while S is in the the red a little. Neither looks like it will hold up to the economic pressures of a weak economy. I really dislike my timing as I missed two opportunities to get in with PCS, one of which was great. Oh, well. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP had a down day, but only by a few cents. My position in this stock still remains profitable. However, I am not concerned about it loosing value since it is a dividend paying stock with options. I will add to my position in the event that it drops and sell calls against it.
CVX had a drastically down day today. It even fell below the supporting trend line of it's channel. The secondary indicators are weak and weakening with no sign of recovery in the near future. As a result, my option is looking deplorable. I am putting in a stop-limit order to get out tomorrow.
EVEP had a down day, but it started up a little. There is weakness in the secondary indicators and the current bid and ask brackets the last price of the day. It could go either way. The good news is that it is a dividend paying stock with options. I am not worried if it goes down in price. I will add to my position in the event that it does go down.
FPL had an up day, but it's movement through out the day kept it depressed in the options market. As a result it remained unchanged. The secondary indicators suggest that it may be reversing soon. Since this is an option play, I want to lock in my profits. I will do this by tightening my stop-limit order.
MU had another bullish day. With 11 days left until expiration, there is little indication that it will pull back to the strike price of the Call Option I sold against it. It is only 12 cents from it's intraday high of a few days ago. And that is 28 cents away from the next strike price. It is all but certain that this non-dividend paying stock will be called away from me. Not a problem for me as this was intentional.
SLV had a down day. In fact, it blew through two supporting trend lines. I am suspecting even more loses in the next few days. As this is an ETF on the commodity silver, I will try to dollar cost average it by buying more if it drops below $17. I probably should have tried buying a Put Option on it a couple days ago. Live and learn.
As for the two paper trades I am in, PCS and S both went down. As a result, PCS is now even while S is in the the red a little. Neither looks like it will hold up to the economic pressures of a weak economy. I really dislike my timing as I missed two opportunities to get in with PCS, one of which was great. Oh, well. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Monday, December 7, 2009
Portfolio Update
Not much to say about the market today. It was mixed and so was my portfolio.
CPLP closed just under it's previous close, creating a small loss for me.
CVX closed slightly up, but only after some large positive and negative swings. As a result of the negative swings toward the end of the day, I am down on my Call Option.
EVEP moved higher and closed at the top of it's upward trending channel. As a result, my Call Option is profitable. Unfortunately, the trading range is so narrow that the gains are marginal.
FPL moved back up some. Unfortunately, it seems to be over-bought at this time. I believe I may sell and take my meager profits.
MU gained a little bit. But it seems to be over-bought as well. It looks like it will be pulling back this week. But I suppose if it does, it won't be for a lot or for long.
SLV opened much lower, but regained some of it's losses. Unfortunately, these gains were not enough to break it above yesterday's close.
As for my paper trades, we have some news to report. Both PCS and S went up today; PCS for profit and S for entry. PCS is profiting enough to cover it's commissions at this time. S has broken out and has me in at a fair amount. I will keep an eye on them.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP closed just under it's previous close, creating a small loss for me.
CVX closed slightly up, but only after some large positive and negative swings. As a result of the negative swings toward the end of the day, I am down on my Call Option.
EVEP moved higher and closed at the top of it's upward trending channel. As a result, my Call Option is profitable. Unfortunately, the trading range is so narrow that the gains are marginal.
FPL moved back up some. Unfortunately, it seems to be over-bought at this time. I believe I may sell and take my meager profits.
MU gained a little bit. But it seems to be over-bought as well. It looks like it will be pulling back this week. But I suppose if it does, it won't be for a lot or for long.
SLV opened much lower, but regained some of it's losses. Unfortunately, these gains were not enough to break it above yesterday's close.
As for my paper trades, we have some news to report. Both PCS and S went up today; PCS for profit and S for entry. PCS is profiting enough to cover it's commissions at this time. S has broken out and has me in at a fair amount. I will keep an eye on them.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Prognostication Comes True Or Squirrel Finds A Nut
Today I came across the interview Aaron Task had with Bernie Schaeffer yesterday on his Yahoo Finance show, techticker. In the accompanying article he also writes, it included a point about gold that I found interesting. This point also reminded me of a post I wrote not too long ago.
In Task's article he mentions that when gold pulled back on Friday, it "tumbled more than $60, or 5%". When Task mentioned 5% it reminded me of a prognostication I made before Thanksgiving (November 24, 2009). In that prognostication I stated that I expect the gold ETF (GLD) to "only pull back as much as 7%". Now the point Task made is true, but it only takes into account intraday trading. When I made my statement I was not talking about intraday trading. So how much did the ETF really fall?
On December 2, 2009, two days before yesterday's pull back, GLD closed at a high of $119.18. As of yesterday's close, GLD is at $113.75. That means that it tumbled a total of $5.43, or 4.6%. This is still more than half of what I prognosticated. On top of that, it happened within the two week time frame I stated also. Not bad in my opinion. The question now is what will the next trading day bring? Will it a) continue to slide, b) oscillate sideways, or c) bounce?
The answer? I don't know. My opinion is that statistically it should continue to slide for at least one more day. Especially lately as it has been over-priced for an extremely long period of time, and the price has been increasing way too steeply. Usually such things are indicators that the drop will also be dramatic, as it has already shown in one day. However, humans are irrational and the sales pitch of a metals commodity broker is quite convincing. It is very likely that it will oscillate sideways for a while or just bounce. Maybe it will create a double top before coming down again. I just don't know.
What I do know is that the candlestick created on this down day has a long lower shadow. This usually means that bulls saw the drop as a good thing and rushed in to grab a great deal. From here the equity value travels sideways or bounces. The length of the shadow in comparison to the body is an indicator of direction. Generally, the longer the shadow, the more likely there will be a bounce. Since this one has a long shadow shorter than the body of the candlestick, it will probably travel sideways for a few days. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com/
=== References ===
Don't Fear the Fed: Stocks, Gold Still a Buy, Bernie Schaeffer Says
Tuesday, November 24, 2009 - Investors Opinion: Portfolio Update
In Task's article he mentions that when gold pulled back on Friday, it "tumbled more than $60, or 5%". When Task mentioned 5% it reminded me of a prognostication I made before Thanksgiving (November 24, 2009). In that prognostication I stated that I expect the gold ETF (GLD) to "only pull back as much as 7%". Now the point Task made is true, but it only takes into account intraday trading. When I made my statement I was not talking about intraday trading. So how much did the ETF really fall?
On December 2, 2009, two days before yesterday's pull back, GLD closed at a high of $119.18. As of yesterday's close, GLD is at $113.75. That means that it tumbled a total of $5.43, or 4.6%. This is still more than half of what I prognosticated. On top of that, it happened within the two week time frame I stated also. Not bad in my opinion. The question now is what will the next trading day bring? Will it a) continue to slide, b) oscillate sideways, or c) bounce?
The answer? I don't know. My opinion is that statistically it should continue to slide for at least one more day. Especially lately as it has been over-priced for an extremely long period of time, and the price has been increasing way too steeply. Usually such things are indicators that the drop will also be dramatic, as it has already shown in one day. However, humans are irrational and the sales pitch of a metals commodity broker is quite convincing. It is very likely that it will oscillate sideways for a while or just bounce. Maybe it will create a double top before coming down again. I just don't know.
What I do know is that the candlestick created on this down day has a long lower shadow. This usually means that bulls saw the drop as a good thing and rushed in to grab a great deal. From here the equity value travels sideways or bounces. The length of the shadow in comparison to the body is an indicator of direction. Generally, the longer the shadow, the more likely there will be a bounce. Since this one has a long shadow shorter than the body of the candlestick, it will probably travel sideways for a few days. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com/
=== References ===
Don't Fear the Fed: Stocks, Gold Still a Buy, Bernie Schaeffer Says
Tuesday, November 24, 2009 - Investors Opinion: Portfolio Update
Friday, December 4, 2009
Portfolio Update
Not much to say about the market today. It swung high and then low and then settled somewhere in the middle. The end result had the stock market up a few dozen points and the basic metals, treasuries, and oil ETFs down. As for me it was a slightly down day for me over all.
CPLP only went up 6 cents to put me in the green. It has broken above one of the resistance trend lines that I have been using to tracking against it, so that is a bit of good news for my bull position. There is strength in the secondary indicators so with plenty of upside potential still available.
CVX also had a slightly up day. The close, however, was down from it's open. It currently sits on the supporting trend line that it came down to yesterday. The volume was only slightly higher than average and the secondary indicators continue to pull back. Not sure what this mixture means for the future of the stock or my Call Option on it. I still have some time on the option, so I will wait for next week.
EVEP had an up day. Although it sits in an up trending channel, the secondary indicators are showing weakness. I believe that it may be in the process of pulling back. If it does, I think I may dollar cost average into it some more for the reason that it's dividend is very good and it has strong earnings.
FPL had a down day. It continues to battle it's 200- and 50-day moving averages. I am inclined to believe that it will continue to pull back or hold this level for a few day before moving further up. My option still has time so I will wait and see.
MU gaped up today, but then pulled back before it's close. The volume was stronger than average and the secondary indicators are on the strong side, but they are showing weakness. I think it may pull back, but I don't think it will drop below the strike price of the Call Option I sold against my stock. If it doesn't, my stock will be called away from me for the small profit I was expecting to receive.
SLV had another down day. This down move brought it below one of the upward trending support lines I used to chart it's movements. This isn't the first time it has fallen below this support line, so I no longer have confidence in using it. There is one more that has proven more reliable. If it breaks below this one, I will consider selling my position and waiting on better circumstances.
As far as my paper trading is concerned, there is still no change there. PCS closed unchanged and S still hasn't reached my contingency price, only closing up a couple cents.
The market seems to be slowing down in my opinion. The stocks have been losing momentum and the commodity ETFs pulled back pretty hard after so many days of continual gains. The bulls in all the markets may have exhausted themselves. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP only went up 6 cents to put me in the green. It has broken above one of the resistance trend lines that I have been using to tracking against it, so that is a bit of good news for my bull position. There is strength in the secondary indicators so with plenty of upside potential still available.
CVX also had a slightly up day. The close, however, was down from it's open. It currently sits on the supporting trend line that it came down to yesterday. The volume was only slightly higher than average and the secondary indicators continue to pull back. Not sure what this mixture means for the future of the stock or my Call Option on it. I still have some time on the option, so I will wait for next week.
EVEP had an up day. Although it sits in an up trending channel, the secondary indicators are showing weakness. I believe that it may be in the process of pulling back. If it does, I think I may dollar cost average into it some more for the reason that it's dividend is very good and it has strong earnings.
FPL had a down day. It continues to battle it's 200- and 50-day moving averages. I am inclined to believe that it will continue to pull back or hold this level for a few day before moving further up. My option still has time so I will wait and see.
MU gaped up today, but then pulled back before it's close. The volume was stronger than average and the secondary indicators are on the strong side, but they are showing weakness. I think it may pull back, but I don't think it will drop below the strike price of the Call Option I sold against my stock. If it doesn't, my stock will be called away from me for the small profit I was expecting to receive.
SLV had another down day. This down move brought it below one of the upward trending support lines I used to chart it's movements. This isn't the first time it has fallen below this support line, so I no longer have confidence in using it. There is one more that has proven more reliable. If it breaks below this one, I will consider selling my position and waiting on better circumstances.
As far as my paper trading is concerned, there is still no change there. PCS closed unchanged and S still hasn't reached my contingency price, only closing up a couple cents.
The market seems to be slowing down in my opinion. The stocks have been losing momentum and the commodity ETFs pulled back pretty hard after so many days of continual gains. The bulls in all the markets may have exhausted themselves. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Portfolio Update
Today was a weak day in the market with relatively small loses and the result for me was mixed.
CPLP had an up day. The end result was a profit for me. From my analysis, there is plenty of potential for some dramatic gains, so I will continue to hold on to it.
CVX had a down day, and this brought down the value of my Call Option. As it stands, CVX closed at the first of two of it's most consistent trend lines of support. Although past behavior is not indicative of future results, it does, suggest the most likely action to take place. And since bouncing up after hitting this support line is the most common reaction, it is likely that it will go up tomorrow. Now, if it breaks down further, then I will begin to consider protecting what's left of the principal.
EVEP had a down day. The end result is that I am a little bit in the red with it. The current overall trend is bullish while the stock is going toward the supporting trend line of it's channel. Due to the secondary indicators that I watch, I have the opinion that the stock may be in the process of pulling back. Since my position in it is small, and it pays a large dividend, I am going to wait this out.
FPL had a down day. Since I a Call Option on the stock, the value of my position also lost value. The price movement of the day, however, did not drop below the resistance level that it broke through the day before. Although the secondary indicators suggest the stock is becoming overbought, I am positive about future potential for upward gains. It could just be defining a new resistance trend line for a bullish trend. I still have time left on my option and plenty of value before my stop-limit order get triggered, so I will let it ride until the stop-limit order gets triggered or I get more reason to sell.
MU almost had a really up day, but pulled back before the close to result in a very long upper wick. The wick is actually longer than the body of the candle stick. This could mean that the stock has exhausted the number of bulls currently in the market place. And since the general direction of the stock for the past month has been up, it is likely that the stock is going to perform a pull back to it's supporting trend line before moving up. If it breaks below that supporting trend line, then this could be the signal that indicates the end off it's run. I personally don't see it breaking below that supporting trend line. It may not even fall below $7.75. Neither direction means anything to me as I am looking forward to getting the non-dividend paying stock called away from me for a little capital gain or to sell another call option against it if it drops below the strike price of the current Call Option before and through expiration.
SLV had a down day. It's price movement resulted in a doji star below the previous day. Since it has currently been in an up trend, such candle sticks carry little influence by themselves. However, secondary indicators suggest that the current run could be due for a pull back. Such a pull back doesn't seem to be all that drastic of a move. It will probably be no more than a $1 per share. Anything more than that should be considered seriously.
As for my paper trading in the options market, both stocks that I am watching for that have pulled back today.
PCS pulled back only a few cents so there is still some strength behind it according to the secondary indicators. The option value didn't move any so I am leaving it in place.
S, on the other hand, still continues to pulled back. Even though it started out making some gains, S ended the day down. When it topped out two weeks ago, it created a slightly declining resistance trend line. At this point I could revise my contingency price lower by 5 cents. But because it is such a shallow descent, I am leaving the contingency price as is. I will wait for it to break $3.95 on the stock before the option get bough. I should be in this position within the next 5 to 10 days. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP had an up day. The end result was a profit for me. From my analysis, there is plenty of potential for some dramatic gains, so I will continue to hold on to it.
CVX had a down day, and this brought down the value of my Call Option. As it stands, CVX closed at the first of two of it's most consistent trend lines of support. Although past behavior is not indicative of future results, it does, suggest the most likely action to take place. And since bouncing up after hitting this support line is the most common reaction, it is likely that it will go up tomorrow. Now, if it breaks down further, then I will begin to consider protecting what's left of the principal.
EVEP had a down day. The end result is that I am a little bit in the red with it. The current overall trend is bullish while the stock is going toward the supporting trend line of it's channel. Due to the secondary indicators that I watch, I have the opinion that the stock may be in the process of pulling back. Since my position in it is small, and it pays a large dividend, I am going to wait this out.
FPL had a down day. Since I a Call Option on the stock, the value of my position also lost value. The price movement of the day, however, did not drop below the resistance level that it broke through the day before. Although the secondary indicators suggest the stock is becoming overbought, I am positive about future potential for upward gains. It could just be defining a new resistance trend line for a bullish trend. I still have time left on my option and plenty of value before my stop-limit order get triggered, so I will let it ride until the stop-limit order gets triggered or I get more reason to sell.
MU almost had a really up day, but pulled back before the close to result in a very long upper wick. The wick is actually longer than the body of the candle stick. This could mean that the stock has exhausted the number of bulls currently in the market place. And since the general direction of the stock for the past month has been up, it is likely that the stock is going to perform a pull back to it's supporting trend line before moving up. If it breaks below that supporting trend line, then this could be the signal that indicates the end off it's run. I personally don't see it breaking below that supporting trend line. It may not even fall below $7.75. Neither direction means anything to me as I am looking forward to getting the non-dividend paying stock called away from me for a little capital gain or to sell another call option against it if it drops below the strike price of the current Call Option before and through expiration.
SLV had a down day. It's price movement resulted in a doji star below the previous day. Since it has currently been in an up trend, such candle sticks carry little influence by themselves. However, secondary indicators suggest that the current run could be due for a pull back. Such a pull back doesn't seem to be all that drastic of a move. It will probably be no more than a $1 per share. Anything more than that should be considered seriously.
As for my paper trading in the options market, both stocks that I am watching for that have pulled back today.
PCS pulled back only a few cents so there is still some strength behind it according to the secondary indicators. The option value didn't move any so I am leaving it in place.
S, on the other hand, still continues to pulled back. Even though it started out making some gains, S ended the day down. When it topped out two weeks ago, it created a slightly declining resistance trend line. At this point I could revise my contingency price lower by 5 cents. But because it is such a shallow descent, I am leaving the contingency price as is. I will wait for it to break $3.95 on the stock before the option get bough. I should be in this position within the next 5 to 10 days. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Portfolio Update
Today was a mixed day in the markets. The outcome for the most diversified investor would be just about even. I, on the other hand, try to be as opportunistic as I can while maintaining control. That is not saying much so I will just get into my portfolio update.
CPLP continues in the consolidation trend it has been sitting in. Today it moved up as much as 8 cents but could only hold on to 3 cents at the close of the market. The current bid and ask prices are too far apart and on opposite extremes to be relied upon. Depending on who bites first, Bull or Bear, the market could go either way. Taking into consideration, it seems likely tomorrow will be another down day. Losses are currently small.
CVX had a down day with a long shadow after a doji day yesterday. This usually means that the stock is heading down. But it has a number of supporting indicators to suggest that this may only be the negative side of it's upward trending channel. This stock requires patience and so does my Call Option on it. Losses are currently small.
EVEP had a down day, as well. This down day, however, had some action both above it's open and below it's close. With other indicators still suggesting strength is still present and the existence of a bullish trend, I have no reason to assume the worse on this stock yet. Losses are very small on this one with plenty of up potential to watch for.
FPL provided me some really good news today. FPL had another up day. It even spent a little time above the 200 day moving average. Now the move was not a large move, but because it is $3 above the $50 strike price of my Call Option, small moves produce exponential gains. So I am pleased to say that this move averages me into the green.
Next we have MU, which made a very affirmative move to the upside today. It is now over the $8 strike price of the option I sold against it. This means that if today was option expiration, I would have my 100 shares of this non-dividend paying stock assigned to someone else for $8 per share. That is okay by me as that was the plan anyway. I buy it under $8 per share to sell a Call Option against it and collect a premium, I then sell it to the Call Option buyer under market value at $8 per share even though it is worth more. The end result is they get a stock at a price under market, and I get a premium and a small profit. Win-win in my eyes.
Last we have SLV, which also had an up day although the close was actually lower than it's open. Considering the volume and the oscillating secondary indicators, I am seeing the possibility for a little bit of a drive up, but generally a pull back to about $17.50-$18 before anymore serious movement. This also seems to be the most recent trend for SLV. It may be wise for me to buy more on a pull back.
As for my paper trading, S still remains under it's defined contingency price, but PCS broke above and then closed at the contingency price I defined for it. As was stated in a previous blog where I described my paper trading strategy, I am going to record the trade as if it executed at the Call Options high for the day. It just happens that the price didn't change all day from $2 per contract share. This means I am now tracking a $5Feb10 Call Option on 100 shares of PCS for a total of $200. We will see where it goes from here. A comfortable loss is 25-30% of the purchase price. This means I am looking at a stop-limit of $1.50-$1.40 per contract share. We will see if the option drops to this.
Generally speaking, the oscillating indicators see a reversal in momentum to the up side. This suggests to me that I am likely to see more profits than losses in the next couple weeks. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CPLP continues in the consolidation trend it has been sitting in. Today it moved up as much as 8 cents but could only hold on to 3 cents at the close of the market. The current bid and ask prices are too far apart and on opposite extremes to be relied upon. Depending on who bites first, Bull or Bear, the market could go either way. Taking into consideration, it seems likely tomorrow will be another down day. Losses are currently small.
CVX had a down day with a long shadow after a doji day yesterday. This usually means that the stock is heading down. But it has a number of supporting indicators to suggest that this may only be the negative side of it's upward trending channel. This stock requires patience and so does my Call Option on it. Losses are currently small.
EVEP had a down day, as well. This down day, however, had some action both above it's open and below it's close. With other indicators still suggesting strength is still present and the existence of a bullish trend, I have no reason to assume the worse on this stock yet. Losses are very small on this one with plenty of up potential to watch for.
FPL provided me some really good news today. FPL had another up day. It even spent a little time above the 200 day moving average. Now the move was not a large move, but because it is $3 above the $50 strike price of my Call Option, small moves produce exponential gains. So I am pleased to say that this move averages me into the green.
Next we have MU, which made a very affirmative move to the upside today. It is now over the $8 strike price of the option I sold against it. This means that if today was option expiration, I would have my 100 shares of this non-dividend paying stock assigned to someone else for $8 per share. That is okay by me as that was the plan anyway. I buy it under $8 per share to sell a Call Option against it and collect a premium, I then sell it to the Call Option buyer under market value at $8 per share even though it is worth more. The end result is they get a stock at a price under market, and I get a premium and a small profit. Win-win in my eyes.
Last we have SLV, which also had an up day although the close was actually lower than it's open. Considering the volume and the oscillating secondary indicators, I am seeing the possibility for a little bit of a drive up, but generally a pull back to about $17.50-$18 before anymore serious movement. This also seems to be the most recent trend for SLV. It may be wise for me to buy more on a pull back.
As for my paper trading, S still remains under it's defined contingency price, but PCS broke above and then closed at the contingency price I defined for it. As was stated in a previous blog where I described my paper trading strategy, I am going to record the trade as if it executed at the Call Options high for the day. It just happens that the price didn't change all day from $2 per contract share. This means I am now tracking a $5Feb10 Call Option on 100 shares of PCS for a total of $200. We will see where it goes from here. A comfortable loss is 25-30% of the purchase price. This means I am looking at a stop-limit of $1.50-$1.40 per contract share. We will see if the option drops to this.
Generally speaking, the oscillating indicators see a reversal in momentum to the up side. This suggests to me that I am likely to see more profits than losses in the next couple weeks. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Portfolio Update
Whoohoo! I love it when my portfolio glows green, don't you? Every position in my portfolio went up today. Some better than others. For the most part, the day was a bullish. But let's get into detail about my portfolio.
My new stock position of CPLP only went up 2 cents today, continuing it's trend of consolidation. I will have to be patient with this one.
My CVX Call Option moved up more than 12%, reducing my overall losses as the stock continues to oscillate in an upward trending channel. Patience should pay off, but not just yet.
My other new stock position of EVEP also moved up today. This position is taking on the characteristics of a break out. The rest of this week will verify if this is the case.
My FPL Call Option made large gains today as the underlying stock broke out and stayed above the downward trending resistance line that had been suppressing it for the past few months. Patience has payed off for this one so far and there is still a whole month and a half until the option expires.
My Covered Call on MU is also looking up today. The stock is profitable and approaching assignment value. Again, MU is a non-dividend paying stock so I am in it purely for a little capital gain and the premium of selling the option.
My SLV stock is also in the green. Unfortunately, the secondary indicators are making it look like I got in the trend too late. Not sure what I am going to do just yet, so I will be patient and see what tomorrow brings.
Finally, in regards to the stock options I will be reporting on, PCS and S, I have nothing to report. Neither stock has hit my contingency price point to make it buy their respective Call Options. I personally think that PCS is going to continue sideways and S will continue to pull back until next week and then each will break out. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
My new stock position of CPLP only went up 2 cents today, continuing it's trend of consolidation. I will have to be patient with this one.
My CVX Call Option moved up more than 12%, reducing my overall losses as the stock continues to oscillate in an upward trending channel. Patience should pay off, but not just yet.
My other new stock position of EVEP also moved up today. This position is taking on the characteristics of a break out. The rest of this week will verify if this is the case.
My FPL Call Option made large gains today as the underlying stock broke out and stayed above the downward trending resistance line that had been suppressing it for the past few months. Patience has payed off for this one so far and there is still a whole month and a half until the option expires.
My Covered Call on MU is also looking up today. The stock is profitable and approaching assignment value. Again, MU is a non-dividend paying stock so I am in it purely for a little capital gain and the premium of selling the option.
My SLV stock is also in the green. Unfortunately, the secondary indicators are making it look like I got in the trend too late. Not sure what I am going to do just yet, so I will be patient and see what tomorrow brings.
Finally, in regards to the stock options I will be reporting on, PCS and S, I have nothing to report. Neither stock has hit my contingency price point to make it buy their respective Call Options. I personally think that PCS is going to continue sideways and S will continue to pull back until next week and then each will break out. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
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