Friday, December 11, 2009

Portfolio Update

It is said that 'patience is a virtue.' And it is a virtue I am in short supply of. I hope it isn't presumptuous but I would like to thank God for the amount he has given me. So this is the reason for my happiness today.

CPLP took another stab at breaking through the resistance line of the sideways channel it is in. Unfortunately, today was not the day for it to stay above that line. The fortunate thing is that it did break through and although it retraced back under resistance, it still kept 10 cents per share. I am still optimistic as the MACD and Stochastic lines continue to grow in strength. All that is needed is a strong volume day.

EVEP had a bullish day, but the candlestick pattern is almost that of a hangman, a body that illustrates that the closing price made an obvious change from the opening with a long lower shadow. Interestingly, it actually closed at the same high it made yesterday. Usually hangman candlestick patterns suggest a reversal is likely, but the body of this particular candlestick is about the same length as the shadow. This devalues the negative potential of the pattern. However, it is still wise to analyze this in connection with the slightly better than average volume, Stochastic lines moving sideways near overbought levels, and the MACD lines having climbed steeply above the zero line for the past three days. After doing that I am still inclined to believe that the immediate upward cycle is over or nearing it's end but I will be waiting for confirmation next.

FPL had a really bullish day and is the main reason for my happiness today. Not only was the day a bullish day for FPL, it started at the resistance line of the upward channel it was in, broke through, and closed well above it. Volume was stronger than average two days in a row and the secondary indicators, although in the range of overbought, are still strong. I have been tightening my stops for the last three tree sessions and will being doing it again as I would much rather keep as much of what I have been given by the market instead of being a pig and losing most of it to unrealistic expectations that it may continue to go up after slipping back.

MU didn't have a bullish day today. Instead, it had a decapitated hangman of a day. What I mean is that it had a very narrow move down from it's open, and barley even went below where it closed, creating a very short shadow. Similar to my earlier statement about the hangman-like move EVEP made today, there is not much value in a hangman day where the lower shadow is not longer than the body of the candlestick in terms of multiples. However, like EVEP, the secondary indicators are also suggesting the end of the run is near. Since my interest in this stock was primarily for the benefit of the premium I received when I sold a Call Option option against it, I am still not at all concerned about the direction that it is taking.

SLV also did not have a bullish day. In fact it was a little less favorable than I expected. It hit a lower low today as it broke below the lows that it bounced off of for the past two days prior, but closed just above them. The price movement of the day, however, was another hammer. In comparison to the hangman candlesticks of EVEP and MU, this one is suppose to be more favorable as the shadow on it is about two times the length of the body the price movement created. Also since, silver is suppose to be "real" money, and the value of it is completely tied to supply and demand. I am very unlikely to ever sell it unless I have a greater amount of it at a much greater price. In regards to secondary indicators and the rate of change in the ETF, it all tells me that if I had more cash/currency on hand, I should buy more as it should be reversing soon. But so is life, I do not have the capital at this time.

As far as my paper trades are concerned, PCS and S both moved slightly higher today, but their probabilities of continuing higher still haven't changed. In fact, the price movement of these stocks actually opened higher and then drifted down, just not the full amount that it opened up. In addition, based on the direction and position of the secondary indicators of these two stocks, I don't have a lot of confidence that it will continue to go up right now. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

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