As was mentioned in the last post, I will not be able to make daily reports for at least the next two months. Not reporting as often as I had will also increase the amount of information I have to pull from. So my reports will be focused on the U.S. markets only. Sorry, if there were any international readers, but I have no idea if you are out there since I haven't gotten any comments. So until I do, it is only my opinion that counts.
U.S.
Dow => 7776.18, +496.93
Nasdaq => 1545.20, +53.94
S&P => 815.94, +4.63
Mine
AMD => 3.37, +0.05
F => 2.84, -0.04
NG => 2.68, +0.32
AMD PG => 0.28 (Sold to Close 3/24/2009), -0.18 (Total)
F PG => 0.40 (Sold to Close 3/24/2009), -0.35 (Total)
FPL DI => 5.60 (Sold to Close 3/24/2009), +3.75 (Total)
Trend Report
Friday, the U.S. markets closed down for the day, but not enough to eliminate a third bull week. This shows a continued rally of the bulls but it also puts all of the indices into their respective resistance zones marked by the levels of seven weeks ago. So what does that mean?
Meaning
First let's describe a resistance zone. A resistance zone is not a specific point or value. I would say that a safe assumption is a point value +/-5%. For example, the Dow is approaching the 8000 point level, where it stalled around for a few weeks before dropping through. So the Dow resistance zone is 8000 +/-5% (400 points), a range of 7600-8400. Currently it is in the range at 7776.18.
For the Nasdaq it is 1500 +/-5% (75 points), a range of 1425-1575. Currently it is in the range at 1545.20. For the S&P it is 800 +/-5%(40 points), a range of 760-840. Currently it is in the range at 815.94.
Lets continue. Because I am a swing trader, I use one chart interval for trend and a tighter one for timing. In this more volatile market I have been using the tighter intervals of, weekly for trend and daily for timing. The trend report above was done using the weekly chart information, so for timing I am obviously using the the daily charts. But I am also using the indicators that I mentioned several times before in my previous posts.
Timing
So on the daily chart of the Dow we have a strong, but weakening RSI of 58.19. The Stochastic is bullish, but has been overbought for over a week. And the MACD is also bullish, but the histogram is showing signs of increasing weakness.
The Nasdaq has a similar report. The RSI is strong, but weakened to 58.6. The Stochastic is bullish, but has been overbought for over a week. And the MACD is also bullish, but the histogram is also showing signs of increasing weakness.
Finally, the S&P. The RSI is strong, but weakened to 57.65. The Stochastic is bullish, but has been overbought for over a week. And the MACD is also bullish, but the histogram is also showing signs of increasing weakness.
Conclusion
All though it has not occurred as quickly as I was previously expecting, this rally is going to have a short life. I am expecting stagnation at this zone and then a pull back to the lows that were put in three weeks ago. I am also hoping that the markets will bounce from those lows and then blow through their current resistance zones. But currently the timing indicates that research into Puts and Shorts should be the daily routine. Look for your ins and prepare your outs for your Calls and Longs.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Monday, March 23, 2009
What Happened to Today's Report?
I am guessing you maybe wondering where today's report is? Well, due to circumstances that continued from last Thursday's late report, I will no longer be able to give daily reports for the foreseeable future of 60 days.
My reports will be limited to weekly reports on Saturday and prognostication on Sunday. On occasion I may post during the week, but I don't see that happening that often. However, I do hope you choose to check anyway.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
My reports will be limited to weekly reports on Saturday and prognostication on Sunday. On occasion I may post during the week, but I don't see that happening that often. However, I do hope you choose to check anyway.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Executed Puts
As expected the bears are coming out, although a bit slower than expected.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,945.96, -26.21, -0.33%
Hang Seng => 12,833.51, -297.41, -2.26%
Straits Times => 1,596.92, +12.06, +0.76%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,842.85, +25.92, +0.68%
DAX => 4,068.74, +25.28, +0.63%
CAC => 2,791.14, +14.15, +0.51%
U.S.:
Dow => 7,276.94, -123.86, -1.67%
Nasdaq => 1,457.27, -26.21, -1.77%
S&P => 768.49, -15.55, -1.98%
Me:
AMD => 2.67, -0.29
AMD PG => 0.46 (Bought to Open @ 0.46)
F => 2.75, +0.24
F PG => 0.65, -0.10 (Bought to Open @ 0.75)
FPL DI => 5.40, -0.26
NG => 2.36, -0.22
And I think the wise move is to go with the trend. But is it really time to go with the bears on this one? Some would say that waiting is better, just to make sure. So let me explain why I think it is time.
All the indices put in another bear day and the pass three days show a very obvious pivot. We also have the RSI declining to or below the 50 mark. Usually waiting for another bear day is recommended so that we can be sure it is a pivot and that the RSI can fall below 50, but I am rather certain about this move.
As for the indicators, for all three indices, the stochastic has leveled off at the overbought level. This gives rise to the opinion that investors are going to start selling to get their profits. We also have the MACD doing the same thing after a long uninterrupted climb. Usually solid climbs are followed by solid declines for a short period of time, but it could be longer.
So taking that set of information into consideration I looked at a few of the stocks that I like for puts. We have Advance Micro Devices (AMD) and Ford (F). AMD reflects the broad market exactly, so I am not going to explain myself on that one. However, I probably should explain myself on Ford.
Ford did pivot, but the RSI is actually still climbing and is way up at 74.58. The stochastic indicator is overbought and leveling off, but the MACD has yet to turn, although it has run up for a while. So there is no 100% certainty that Ford will go down from here on out, it is more of a 75% certainty that it will continue to decline. Probably not as forcefully as I believe AMD will, but significant enough to make a profit.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,945.96, -26.21, -0.33%
Hang Seng => 12,833.51, -297.41, -2.26%
Straits Times => 1,596.92, +12.06, +0.76%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,842.85, +25.92, +0.68%
DAX => 4,068.74, +25.28, +0.63%
CAC => 2,791.14, +14.15, +0.51%
U.S.:
Dow => 7,276.94, -123.86, -1.67%
Nasdaq => 1,457.27, -26.21, -1.77%
S&P => 768.49, -15.55, -1.98%
Me:
AMD => 2.67, -0.29
AMD PG => 0.46 (Bought to Open @ 0.46)
F => 2.75, +0.24
F PG => 0.65, -0.10 (Bought to Open @ 0.75)
FPL DI => 5.40, -0.26
NG => 2.36, -0.22
And I think the wise move is to go with the trend. But is it really time to go with the bears on this one? Some would say that waiting is better, just to make sure. So let me explain why I think it is time.
All the indices put in another bear day and the pass three days show a very obvious pivot. We also have the RSI declining to or below the 50 mark. Usually waiting for another bear day is recommended so that we can be sure it is a pivot and that the RSI can fall below 50, but I am rather certain about this move.
As for the indicators, for all three indices, the stochastic has leveled off at the overbought level. This gives rise to the opinion that investors are going to start selling to get their profits. We also have the MACD doing the same thing after a long uninterrupted climb. Usually solid climbs are followed by solid declines for a short period of time, but it could be longer.
So taking that set of information into consideration I looked at a few of the stocks that I like for puts. We have Advance Micro Devices (AMD) and Ford (F). AMD reflects the broad market exactly, so I am not going to explain myself on that one. However, I probably should explain myself on Ford.
Ford did pivot, but the RSI is actually still climbing and is way up at 74.58. The stochastic indicator is overbought and leveling off, but the MACD has yet to turn, although it has run up for a while. So there is no 100% certainty that Ford will go down from here on out, it is more of a 75% certainty that it will continue to decline. Probably not as forcefully as I believe AMD will, but significant enough to make a profit.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
"PUT"ting to Action a Bear Strategy
As expected from my very impromptu market rap up before the market closed, the bears owned the day. (As a quick note, I am sorry for the bad grammer in that last post.) So what did we have going on and what am I doing about it?
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,945.96 , -26.20, -0.33%
Hang Seng => 13,130.91, +13.75, +0.10%
Straits Times => 1,584.86, +8.93, +0.57%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,816.93, +11.94, +0.31%
DAX => 4,043.46, +47.14 +1.18%
CAC => 2,776.99, +16.65, +0.60%
U.S.:
Dow => 7,400.80, -85.78,-1.15%
Nasdaq => 1,483.48, -7.74, -0.52%
S&P => 784.04, -10.31 -1.30%
Me:
AMD => 2.96, -0.01
F => 2.51, +0.04
FPL DI => 5.66, +1.77
NG => 8, +0.07
A profitable day for those that purchased wisely. But a day of disappointment for those that continue to expect the bulls to continue indefinitely. The market continues to poise itself for another bear move to test the most recent lows of a few weeks ago.
We have the report of the bill to steeply tax the execs that earned contracted bonuses, despite their failure to produce, was passed today. But such news didn't do enough to offset the news about additional job cuts occurring and the sale of failed IndyMac being closed with One West. Also, AIG sues Countrywide (ahem, Bank of America owns them) over the loses taken on bad loans. The fingers continue to be pointed around. So sad.
I am putting in a tight stop for my FPL DI position tomorrow to prevent any unnecessary loss of capital. I will, however, allow for all of the Covered Call positions to continue as is. I made my money on the sale of the options against the asset and will or can on the calling away of my stock or the sale of the next option.
I will also be looking for confirmation tomorrow that FPL is reversing. Today FPL put in a doji candlestick and I have been repeating that the Stochastic and MACD are nearing oversold. So I think now is a good time to plan for a put on FPL as well. Don't know the numbers now and too tired to run them. Hopefully I will have them before the market opens in the moning.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,945.96 , -26.20, -0.33%
Hang Seng => 13,130.91, +13.75, +0.10%
Straits Times => 1,584.86, +8.93, +0.57%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,816.93, +11.94, +0.31%
DAX => 4,043.46, +47.14 +1.18%
CAC => 2,776.99, +16.65, +0.60%
U.S.:
Dow => 7,400.80, -85.78,-1.15%
Nasdaq => 1,483.48, -7.74, -0.52%
S&P => 784.04, -10.31 -1.30%
Me:
AMD => 2.96, -0.01
F => 2.51, +0.04
FPL DI => 5.66, +1.77
NG => 8, +0.07
A profitable day for those that purchased wisely. But a day of disappointment for those that continue to expect the bulls to continue indefinitely. The market continues to poise itself for another bear move to test the most recent lows of a few weeks ago.
We have the report of the bill to steeply tax the execs that earned contracted bonuses, despite their failure to produce, was passed today. But such news didn't do enough to offset the news about additional job cuts occurring and the sale of failed IndyMac being closed with One West. Also, AIG sues Countrywide (ahem, Bank of America owns them) over the loses taken on bad loans. The fingers continue to be pointed around. So sad.
I am putting in a tight stop for my FPL DI position tomorrow to prevent any unnecessary loss of capital. I will, however, allow for all of the Covered Call positions to continue as is. I made my money on the sale of the options against the asset and will or can on the calling away of my stock or the sale of the next option.
I will also be looking for confirmation tomorrow that FPL is reversing. Today FPL put in a doji candlestick and I have been repeating that the Stochastic and MACD are nearing oversold. So I think now is a good time to plan for a put on FPL as well. Don't know the numbers now and too tired to run them. Hopefully I will have them before the market opens in the moning.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Notice: Due to Circumstance...
Due to circumstances out of my control. Today's post will be rather late. But to put be to the point in case I am not able to post today.
The Asian markets were up mostly up. The European markets were all up. On carry over news from the U.S.. But the U.S. markets were not able to keep above water by 3:17pm EST.
Unless the news that the House has passed the bill to tax those AIG execs that got those bonuses really starts to get the bulls attention, it looks like it might just be a flat or negative day.
Hello Pooh and Baloo, welcome to the party.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
The Asian markets were up mostly up. The European markets were all up. On carry over news from the U.S.. But the U.S. markets were not able to keep above water by 3:17pm EST.
Unless the news that the House has passed the bill to tax those AIG execs that got those bonuses really starts to get the bulls attention, it looks like it might just be a flat or negative day.
Hello Pooh and Baloo, welcome to the party.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Bulls Push On! But For How Long? To Inflation and Beyond!
The markets being followed were mostly green today, with solid gains, but how long will this little rally last?
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,972.17, +23.04, +0.29%
Hang Seng => 13,117.17, +239.08, +1.86%
Straits Times => 1,575.94, +16.91, +1.08%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,804.99, -52.11, -1.35%
DAX => 3,996.32, +8.55, +0.21%
CAC => 2,760.34, -6.94, -0.25%
U.S.:
Dow => 7,486.58, +90.88, +1.23%
Nasdaq => 1,491.22, +29.11, +1.99%
S&P => 794.35, +16.23, +2.09%
Me:
AMD => 2.97, +0.21
F => 2.47, +0.19
FPL DI => 3.89, +0.08 (Note: Closing Bid was 5.50, so unofficial change is +1.69)
NG=> 2.51, +0.26
Today was an impressive push to the upside in late trading. Reason for the push was the announcement that the Federal Reserve would buy $300 billion in government debt (long-term Treasury securities). Why would this cause the market to go up? Well that took me a moment to figure out.
Apparently it is a speculative reaction. Investors are assuming that if the Federal Reserve is buying the debt that the government has racked up, then the Fed is showing confidence that the debt will be payed off. In other words, that all the assistance that the government has supplied to struggling banks will be paid back with interest. Now this interest needs to be significant enough to cover the interest to be paid out to the Fed for buying the Treasury securities. If these banks are going to be able to pay back their debt with interest significant enough to pay back the aid they received, then they should be liquid enough to lend money to you and I, in the form of mortgages, loans, and credit card limits. Right?
But there is more. The Federal Reserve also lends money out to the banks themselves. Money they use to lend to you and I at a marked up interest rate. Doesn't something seem strange about that? The Federal Reserve is effectively loaning money out to these same banks by means of two different avenues. And where are they getting this money to buy the Treasury securities and loan to the banks? They get it from the U.S. Treasury that prints the money and stamps the coins. Hmm, I smell inflation coming around the corner very quickly, how about you?
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,972.17, +23.04, +0.29%
Hang Seng => 13,117.17, +239.08, +1.86%
Straits Times => 1,575.94, +16.91, +1.08%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,804.99, -52.11, -1.35%
DAX => 3,996.32, +8.55, +0.21%
CAC => 2,760.34, -6.94, -0.25%
U.S.:
Dow => 7,486.58, +90.88, +1.23%
Nasdaq => 1,491.22, +29.11, +1.99%
S&P => 794.35, +16.23, +2.09%
Me:
AMD => 2.97, +0.21
F => 2.47, +0.19
FPL DI => 3.89, +0.08 (Note: Closing Bid was 5.50, so unofficial change is +1.69)
NG=> 2.51, +0.26
Today was an impressive push to the upside in late trading. Reason for the push was the announcement that the Federal Reserve would buy $300 billion in government debt (long-term Treasury securities). Why would this cause the market to go up? Well that took me a moment to figure out.
Apparently it is a speculative reaction. Investors are assuming that if the Federal Reserve is buying the debt that the government has racked up, then the Fed is showing confidence that the debt will be payed off. In other words, that all the assistance that the government has supplied to struggling banks will be paid back with interest. Now this interest needs to be significant enough to cover the interest to be paid out to the Fed for buying the Treasury securities. If these banks are going to be able to pay back their debt with interest significant enough to pay back the aid they received, then they should be liquid enough to lend money to you and I, in the form of mortgages, loans, and credit card limits. Right?
But there is more. The Federal Reserve also lends money out to the banks themselves. Money they use to lend to you and I at a marked up interest rate. Doesn't something seem strange about that? The Federal Reserve is effectively loaning money out to these same banks by means of two different avenues. And where are they getting this money to buy the Treasury securities and loan to the banks? They get it from the U.S. Treasury that prints the money and stamps the coins. Hmm, I smell inflation coming around the corner very quickly, how about you?
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
World Markets Mixed; U.S. Beginning of Recession Stagnation?
Yesterday, the rally train looked like it ran out of steam, and I made some predictions as to what the market results for Monday meant. I will discuss these in a little bit. But first, the market results.
The Nikkei put in solid gains today, while the rest of Asia swallowed modest losses. Europe continued that sentiment with losses for their major three indecies. The U.S., on the other hand, after a slow and mixed start attempted to swallow up all the losses that were put in yesterday.
By mid-day all indecies put in a solid gain of at least 1%. At the closing bell all three indecies recorded more than 2% in gains. This was on news that construction of new homes are starting to go up and so are the wholesale prices, as well as the continued exercise by the Obama administration and the Treasury to stop and retrieve the money that AIG paid out in bonuses to members of the division that caused AIG to stumble.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,949.13, +244.98, +3.18%
Hang Seng => 12,878.09, -98.62, -0.76%
Straits Times => 1,559.03, -27.29, -1.72%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,857.10, -6.89, -0.18%
DAX => 3,987.77, -56.77, -1.40%
CAC => 2,767.28, -24.38, -0.87%
U.S.:
Dow => 7,395.70, +178.73, +2.48%
Nasdaq => 1,462.11, +58.09, +4.14%
S&P => 778.11, +24.22 +3.21%
Me:
AMD => 2.76, +0.28
F => 2.28, +0.18
FPL DI => 3.81, +0.21
NG => 2.25, -0.15
Yesterdays opinion included a probability spread about what the market would do today. In that prediction I said:
So what did the market do today? It ran stagnant. How can I say that? The news produced today was only enough to swing the prediction about 20% toward stagnation. This is because it did not create a significant change of opinion to cause it to advance significantly above highs of yesterday.
The fact that there was good economic news in regards to home building and wholesale goods is promising. However, there was still the occasional layoff report such as the laying off of 2,454 workers in 3 states by Caterpiller. Those, fortunately, are becoming less frequent. It is logical to say that the bear is wounded but not dead, yet.
So what am I predicting for tomorrow? Well my opinion is still bearish for the general market. See the bullet points I provided in Day Five of the Bull? for my reasons why. I do also have something to add. It is my opinion that we may start seeing the market creating a base, and it may be relatively "thick". What I mean by "thick" should become apparent as I give you my numbers.
For at least the next three to six months, I see the Dow bouncing between 6500 and 7500, the Nasdaq between 1250 and 1450, and the S&P between 650 and 800. These numbers are the most recent support and resistance levels that they have encountered. Considering all the world news and the increasing positive tone, these seem to be most logical to me. The prefect place for day- and swing-traders to play.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
The Nikkei put in solid gains today, while the rest of Asia swallowed modest losses. Europe continued that sentiment with losses for their major three indecies. The U.S., on the other hand, after a slow and mixed start attempted to swallow up all the losses that were put in yesterday.
By mid-day all indecies put in a solid gain of at least 1%. At the closing bell all three indecies recorded more than 2% in gains. This was on news that construction of new homes are starting to go up and so are the wholesale prices, as well as the continued exercise by the Obama administration and the Treasury to stop and retrieve the money that AIG paid out in bonuses to members of the division that caused AIG to stumble.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,949.13, +244.98, +3.18%
Hang Seng => 12,878.09, -98.62, -0.76%
Straits Times => 1,559.03, -27.29, -1.72%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,857.10, -6.89, -0.18%
DAX => 3,987.77, -56.77, -1.40%
CAC => 2,767.28, -24.38, -0.87%
U.S.:
Dow => 7,395.70, +178.73, +2.48%
Nasdaq => 1,462.11, +58.09, +4.14%
S&P => 778.11, +24.22 +3.21%
Me:
AMD => 2.76, +0.28
F => 2.28, +0.18
FPL DI => 3.81, +0.21
NG => 2.25, -0.15
Yesterdays opinion included a probability spread about what the market would do today. In that prediction I said:
I predict a 10% chance of a big rally, 30% chance of stagnant movement, but a 60% chance of the bears taking over.I should probably supply some detail about how I came up with my percentages, and I think I will, just not today. To keep it simple I will say this much; a third is the chart performance, a third are the indicators, and a third is the news. Since, the news yesterday was primarily about the AIG bonuses, I allowed it to carry over to the bear side of my analysis. I also allow up to 10% for the occasional anomaly. Something that has become more common in these economic times.
So what did the market do today? It ran stagnant. How can I say that? The news produced today was only enough to swing the prediction about 20% toward stagnation. This is because it did not create a significant change of opinion to cause it to advance significantly above highs of yesterday.
The fact that there was good economic news in regards to home building and wholesale goods is promising. However, there was still the occasional layoff report such as the laying off of 2,454 workers in 3 states by Caterpiller. Those, fortunately, are becoming less frequent. It is logical to say that the bear is wounded but not dead, yet.
So what am I predicting for tomorrow? Well my opinion is still bearish for the general market. See the bullet points I provided in Day Five of the Bull? for my reasons why. I do also have something to add. It is my opinion that we may start seeing the market creating a base, and it may be relatively "thick". What I mean by "thick" should become apparent as I give you my numbers.
For at least the next three to six months, I see the Dow bouncing between 6500 and 7500, the Nasdaq between 1250 and 1450, and the S&P between 650 and 800. These numbers are the most recent support and resistance levels that they have encountered. Considering all the world news and the increasing positive tone, these seem to be most logical to me. The prefect place for day- and swing-traders to play.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Day Five of the Bull?
The markets go for a fifth day of gains. But were they able to make it? The Asian markets start off with mixed gains but up in the green. Europe continues the rally making solid gains in all indecies. But as for the U.S., it looks like the train just ran out of steam.
Despite week economic news and the report that AIG is giving out bonuses with tax payer money, the U.S. indecies marched upwards. However, that was short lived. As of the closing bell, all indecies ended negative.
Standing news is that President Obama has ordered that every legal avenue be explored to block the AIG bonuses.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,704.15, +134.87, +1.78%
Hang Seng => 12,976.71, +450.91, +3.60%
Straits Times => 1,586.32, +8.80, +0.56%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,863.99, +110.31, +2.94%
DAX => 4,044.54, +90.94, +2.30%
CAC => 2,791.66, +86.03, +3.18%
US:
Dow => 7,216.97, -7.01, -0.10%
Nasdaq => 1,404.02, -27.48, -1.92%
S&P => 753.89, -2.66, -0.35%
Me:
AMD => 2.48, -0.04
F => 2.10, -0.09
NG => 2.40, -0.06
FPL DI => 3.60, +1.16
Looking into the technicals of this rally, it looks like the bull is about to be slaughtered by the bear. And here are the reasons why.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Despite week economic news and the report that AIG is giving out bonuses with tax payer money, the U.S. indecies marched upwards. However, that was short lived. As of the closing bell, all indecies ended negative.
Standing news is that President Obama has ordered that every legal avenue be explored to block the AIG bonuses.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,704.15, +134.87, +1.78%
Hang Seng => 12,976.71, +450.91, +3.60%
Straits Times => 1,586.32, +8.80, +0.56%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,863.99, +110.31, +2.94%
DAX => 4,044.54, +90.94, +2.30%
CAC => 2,791.66, +86.03, +3.18%
US:
Dow => 7,216.97, -7.01, -0.10%
Nasdaq => 1,404.02, -27.48, -1.92%
S&P => 753.89, -2.66, -0.35%
Me:
AMD => 2.48, -0.04
F => 2.10, -0.09
NG => 2.40, -0.06
FPL DI => 3.60, +1.16
Looking into the technicals of this rally, it looks like the bull is about to be slaughtered by the bear. And here are the reasons why.
- We had 4 full days of overall gains in the U.S. market.
- The Dow has put in what appears to be a grave stone doji,
- The S&P is more of an inverted hammer (but it might as well be a grave stone), and
- The Nasdaq put in a solid bullish engulfing.
- None of the indices broke above the 50 point threshold of the RSI indicator.
- We have the stochastics and MACD of all three indices approaching oversold levels, plus the MACD is under the zero line as it has been the entire rally. So if you are not in the market now, it's too late anyway.
What is the market going to do tomorrow. I predict a 10% chance of a big rally, 30% chance of stagnant movement, but a 60% chance of the bears taking over. Time for me to analyze and put in a few put plays for the coming week.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Friday, March 13, 2009
A Fourth Day of Gains: Bull Market or Head Fake?
Today, Wall Street put in a fourth day of gains. This is the market in review.
Friday the 13th wasn't a day of bad luck as it is touted to be. Overall all the markets did okay. Starting in Asia all indecies made solid gains over 4%. In Europe, only the DAX came under the wire, but only by a hair. With a five more minutes it might have gotten there. And the U.S., although diving at mid-day, ended the day with all indecies fractionally higher than yesterday.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,569.28, +371.03, +5.15%
Hang Seng => 12,525.80, +524.27, +4.37%
Straits Times => 1,577.52, +83.99, +5.62%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,753.68, +41.62, +1.12%
DAX => 3,953.60, -2.62, -0.07%
CAC => 2,705.63, +11.38, +0.42%
U.S.:
Dow => 7,223.98, +53.92, +0.75%
Nasdaq => 1,431.50, +5.40, +0.38%
S&P => 756.55, +5.81, +0.77%
As For Me:
AMD => 2.52, +0.12
AMD DG => 0.20, +0.08 (Sold to Close @ 0.20)
F => 2.19, +0.09
FPL DI => 2.44, +0.09
NG => 2.46, -0.02
I sold out of the AMD $3Apr09Call (AMD DG) because it finally returned to profitability. Now why would I sell out of it now that it has returned to profitability? That is because $2.50 is a resistance zone for AMD since January 5th when, on huge volume, it broke over it for a few days. It has since then attempted to break over it about 6 times and failed. Today was the first time it has exceeded $2.50 but it retreated back towards it before the market closed. That kind of activity indicates that those who purchased it back in early January were selling it off.
In addition, the Stochastic indicator shows that it is nearing the 70 mark where it retreated from previously. Also, the MACD has exceeded its most recent apex. Such things at the top of a move indicate that momentum may soon reverse. And since the options are more volatile than the stock, I am not willing to risk the gains I have made.
I have, however, a sold $3Apr09Call against my current stock position (Covered Calls) that I picked up back on February 25th. I will be holding on to AMD from this point on, adding to my position on pull backs.
Speaking of Covered Calls, I also sold a $3Apr09Call against my Ford (F) position. This was done for much of the same reasons that I did it against AMD. Ford stock is nearing the top of an upward channel, the stochastic and MACD are high, and I intend on adding to my position on pull backs.
I see both Ford (F) and AMD (AMD) as viable companies, and their stock prices affordable. I also see the potential for more gains on this movement. Although it might get up to three dollars a share before the third Friday of April, I think it will pulling back below $3 before option expiration.
Nova Gold (NG) is another stock that I am trying to sell Covered Calls against. However, the next option available is the $5Apr09Call and it has not reached a price that I would like to sell at.
What can we expect for next week? Technically speaking, there is still plenty of upside left for this swing. However, if history is any kind of witness, and it usually is, There will be a pull back day coming. How strong that day is, will speak volumes about the future of the market.
If the pull back wipes out two or more days of gains, we can expect that the bottom was not quite reached and the prediction of 5000 for the Dow is still probable. If the pull back wipes out gains in small increments before putting in more days like this week, then we just might have seen the worst of it.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Friday the 13th wasn't a day of bad luck as it is touted to be. Overall all the markets did okay. Starting in Asia all indecies made solid gains over 4%. In Europe, only the DAX came under the wire, but only by a hair. With a five more minutes it might have gotten there. And the U.S., although diving at mid-day, ended the day with all indecies fractionally higher than yesterday.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,569.28, +371.03, +5.15%
Hang Seng => 12,525.80, +524.27, +4.37%
Straits Times => 1,577.52, +83.99, +5.62%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,753.68, +41.62, +1.12%
DAX => 3,953.60, -2.62, -0.07%
CAC => 2,705.63, +11.38, +0.42%
U.S.:
Dow => 7,223.98, +53.92, +0.75%
Nasdaq => 1,431.50, +5.40, +0.38%
S&P => 756.55, +5.81, +0.77%
As For Me:
AMD => 2.52, +0.12
AMD DG => 0.20, +0.08 (Sold to Close @ 0.20)
F => 2.19, +0.09
FPL DI => 2.44, +0.09
NG => 2.46, -0.02
I sold out of the AMD $3Apr09Call (AMD DG) because it finally returned to profitability. Now why would I sell out of it now that it has returned to profitability? That is because $2.50 is a resistance zone for AMD since January 5th when, on huge volume, it broke over it for a few days. It has since then attempted to break over it about 6 times and failed. Today was the first time it has exceeded $2.50 but it retreated back towards it before the market closed. That kind of activity indicates that those who purchased it back in early January were selling it off.
In addition, the Stochastic indicator shows that it is nearing the 70 mark where it retreated from previously. Also, the MACD has exceeded its most recent apex. Such things at the top of a move indicate that momentum may soon reverse. And since the options are more volatile than the stock, I am not willing to risk the gains I have made.
I have, however, a sold $3Apr09Call against my current stock position (Covered Calls) that I picked up back on February 25th. I will be holding on to AMD from this point on, adding to my position on pull backs.
Speaking of Covered Calls, I also sold a $3Apr09Call against my Ford (F) position. This was done for much of the same reasons that I did it against AMD. Ford stock is nearing the top of an upward channel, the stochastic and MACD are high, and I intend on adding to my position on pull backs.
I see both Ford (F) and AMD (AMD) as viable companies, and their stock prices affordable. I also see the potential for more gains on this movement. Although it might get up to three dollars a share before the third Friday of April, I think it will pulling back below $3 before option expiration.
Nova Gold (NG) is another stock that I am trying to sell Covered Calls against. However, the next option available is the $5Apr09Call and it has not reached a price that I would like to sell at.
What can we expect for next week? Technically speaking, there is still plenty of upside left for this swing. However, if history is any kind of witness, and it usually is, There will be a pull back day coming. How strong that day is, will speak volumes about the future of the market.
If the pull back wipes out two or more days of gains, we can expect that the bottom was not quite reached and the prediction of 5000 for the Dow is still probable. If the pull back wipes out gains in small increments before putting in more days like this week, then we just might have seen the worst of it.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Bear Market Rally Extends for Third Day
Economic bad news continues to come in and the market just shrugs it off. Is the bear market over?
Jobless claims rise as retail sales slip. Here we have another revision to the jobless claim numbers. The total number of claims is now at 5.3 million. This is the sixth time in seven weeks that a new high has been set. More job cuts were anounced.
The Commerce Department said that the retail sails fell by 0.1 percent. This is less than the 0.5 percent that analysts expected. But the government indicated that the January performance was up 1.8 percent, only 1 percent was expected.
We also have news about business inventory. It was reported that it was cut again in January for the fifth straigh time. Yet the market did not responde negatively to this.
What the market did was rise because the news from GM was promissing. GM told the Obama administration that it will not be in need of government aid as soon as they though because their cost cuts are taking hold.
Also, Standard & Poors cut GE's rating to AA but indicated that no further cuts are being considered. Investors were reported to have expected a deeper downgrade. This looked promissing to them. And the market rallied.
Fed reports record fall in household net worth. But that bad news was about the 4th quarter of 2008. I guess it is true that the news gets built into the price. Because these numbers were over two months old. The market completely ignored it. And the market continued to rally.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,198.25, -177.87, -2.41%
Hang Seng => 12,001.53, +70.87, +0.59%
Straits Times => 1,493.53, -11.98, -0.80%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,712.06, +18.25, +0.49%
DAX => 3,956.22, +42.12, +1.08%
CAC => 2,694.25, +20.05, +0.75%
U.S.:
Dow => 7,170.06, +239.66, +3.46%
Nasdaq => 1,426.10, +54.46, +3.97%
S&P => 750.74, +29.38, +4.07%
My Portfolio:
AMD => 2.40, +0.09
AMD DG => 0.12, unchanged
F => 2.10, +0.14
FPL DI => 2.35, +.025
MIPS => 2.44 +0.07 (Stop @ 2.33, Sold @ 2.44)
NG => 2.48, -0.12
So, what do we have? We have a third day of gains in the market. The second time in three days that the U.S. market put in more than 3% in gains. Is the bear market over? Don't be silly.
Take a look at the three indexes. This isn't the first time that the market has put in repeated gains or has turned upward. For instance, the Dow put in 5 consecutive market days of gains between November 21-28 of 2008, over 1200 points. Yet the following day, gave back 600+ points. So is the bear market over? Not in the least.
The only way we will know if the bear market is over is when there are more positive days with gains averaging higher than the losses of the negative days which should be fewer and in between. When that happens we should see the most recent closing bottom (support) tested and rejected and then the previous ceilings (resistance) tested and blown through to create new supports to be tested and rejected.
At least two of these and we can say yes this was a bottom. But the chances are we will see the past bottoms (Dow 6500, Nasdaq 1260, S&P 675) retested before the ceilings are tested and broken. What I will say is that responsibility is returning to market, and we may see some stagnation until jobless claims slow and more companies report profits. But be prepared to jump off the bull, and onto the bear, at a moments notice.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Jobless claims rise as retail sales slip. Here we have another revision to the jobless claim numbers. The total number of claims is now at 5.3 million. This is the sixth time in seven weeks that a new high has been set. More job cuts were anounced.
The Commerce Department said that the retail sails fell by 0.1 percent. This is less than the 0.5 percent that analysts expected. But the government indicated that the January performance was up 1.8 percent, only 1 percent was expected.
We also have news about business inventory. It was reported that it was cut again in January for the fifth straigh time. Yet the market did not responde negatively to this.
What the market did was rise because the news from GM was promissing. GM told the Obama administration that it will not be in need of government aid as soon as they though because their cost cuts are taking hold.
Also, Standard & Poors cut GE's rating to AA but indicated that no further cuts are being considered. Investors were reported to have expected a deeper downgrade. This looked promissing to them. And the market rallied.
Fed reports record fall in household net worth. But that bad news was about the 4th quarter of 2008. I guess it is true that the news gets built into the price. Because these numbers were over two months old. The market completely ignored it. And the market continued to rally.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,198.25, -177.87, -2.41%
Hang Seng => 12,001.53, +70.87, +0.59%
Straits Times => 1,493.53, -11.98, -0.80%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,712.06, +18.25, +0.49%
DAX => 3,956.22, +42.12, +1.08%
CAC => 2,694.25, +20.05, +0.75%
U.S.:
Dow => 7,170.06, +239.66, +3.46%
Nasdaq => 1,426.10, +54.46, +3.97%
S&P => 750.74, +29.38, +4.07%
My Portfolio:
AMD => 2.40, +0.09
AMD DG => 0.12, unchanged
F => 2.10, +0.14
FPL DI => 2.35, +.025
MIPS => 2.44 +0.07 (Stop @ 2.33, Sold @ 2.44)
NG => 2.48, -0.12
So, what do we have? We have a third day of gains in the market. The second time in three days that the U.S. market put in more than 3% in gains. Is the bear market over? Don't be silly.
Take a look at the three indexes. This isn't the first time that the market has put in repeated gains or has turned upward. For instance, the Dow put in 5 consecutive market days of gains between November 21-28 of 2008, over 1200 points. Yet the following day, gave back 600+ points. So is the bear market over? Not in the least.
The only way we will know if the bear market is over is when there are more positive days with gains averaging higher than the losses of the negative days which should be fewer and in between. When that happens we should see the most recent closing bottom (support) tested and rejected and then the previous ceilings (resistance) tested and blown through to create new supports to be tested and rejected.
At least two of these and we can say yes this was a bottom. But the chances are we will see the past bottoms (Dow 6500, Nasdaq 1260, S&P 675) retested before the ceilings are tested and broken. What I will say is that responsibility is returning to market, and we may see some stagnation until jobless claims slow and more companies report profits. But be prepared to jump off the bull, and onto the bear, at a moments notice.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Wall Street Extends Rally Despite Mid-day Fizzle, "Bearly".
Following the big "blip" on Wall Street yesterday, the international markets followed suite today. But the international rally was incomplete. Although the Asian market and most of Europe ended in the green, the FTSE couldn't sustain the rally and slide back into the red.
Mimicing the FTSE, the second day of U.S. market's rally fizzled out into the red during mid-day trading. Then the Wall Street bulls made a heroic charge in the last two hours of trading to end the day with the major U.S. indecies in the green, although only fractionally.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,376.12, +321.14, +4.55%
Hang Seng => 11,930.66, +236.61, +2.02%
Straits Times => 1,505.51, +19.76,+1.33%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,693.81, -21.42, -0.58%
DAX => 3,914.10, +27.12, +0.70%
CAC => 2,674.20, +10.52, +0.39%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,930.40, +3.91, +0.06%
Nasdaq => 1,371.64, +13.36, +0.98%
S&P => 721.36, +1.76, +0.24%
Me:
AMD => $2.31, -0.01
AMD DG => $0.12, +0.01
BKC PX => Sold to Close @ $1.45
F => $1.96, +0.04 Bought @ $1.9150
FPL DI => $2.10, +0.25 (Bought to Open @ $1.85)
MIPS => $2.37, +0.01
NG => $2.60, +0.17
My put on BKC got stopped out. However, it looks like BKC ended with a bearish harami, and both the stochastic and MACD turning down from overbought conditions. I might get back into it tomorrow.
I got into F under consideration that it will most likely be the only one of the Big 3 to survive in it's present condition. This time I will not be setting a tight stop on it.
I got into a call option for FPL because mathematically the candlesticks are for a bullish engulfing, however they are not properly positioned. The stochastic and MACD are both extremely oversold and showing signs of turning. So far this position has profited today from an intra-day purchase right after the market open.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Mimicing the FTSE, the second day of U.S. market's rally fizzled out into the red during mid-day trading. Then the Wall Street bulls made a heroic charge in the last two hours of trading to end the day with the major U.S. indecies in the green, although only fractionally.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,376.12, +321.14, +4.55%
Hang Seng => 11,930.66, +236.61, +2.02%
Straits Times => 1,505.51, +19.76,+1.33%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,693.81, -21.42, -0.58%
DAX => 3,914.10, +27.12, +0.70%
CAC => 2,674.20, +10.52, +0.39%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,930.40, +3.91, +0.06%
Nasdaq => 1,371.64, +13.36, +0.98%
S&P => 721.36, +1.76, +0.24%
Me:
AMD => $2.31, -0.01
AMD DG => $0.12, +0.01
BKC PX => Sold to Close @ $1.45
F => $1.96, +0.04 Bought @ $1.9150
FPL DI => $2.10, +0.25 (Bought to Open @ $1.85)
MIPS => $2.37, +0.01
NG => $2.60, +0.17
My put on BKC got stopped out. However, it looks like BKC ended with a bearish harami, and both the stochastic and MACD turning down from overbought conditions. I might get back into it tomorrow.
I got into F under consideration that it will most likely be the only one of the Big 3 to survive in it's present condition. This time I will not be setting a tight stop on it.
I got into a call option for FPL because mathematically the candlesticks are for a bullish engulfing, however they are not properly positioned. The stochastic and MACD are both extremely oversold and showing signs of turning. So far this position has profited today from an intra-day purchase right after the market open.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Powerful Bear Market Rally on Leaked Memo
Wow, what a day. After a seesaw day yesterday, the indecies made a powerful move to the upside today on some very interesting news.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,054.98, -31.05, -0.44%
Hang Seng => 11,694.05, +349.47, +3.08%
Straits Times => 1,485.75, +28.80, +1.98%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,715.23, +172.83, +4.88%
DAX => 3,886.98, +194.95, +5.28%
CAC => 2,663.68, +144.39, +5.73%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,926.49, +379.44, +5.80%
Nasdaq => 1,358.28, +89.64, +7.07%
S&P => 719.60, +43.07, +6.37%
As for me:
AMD =>$2.32, +0.18
MIPS => $2.36, +0.17
NG => $2.43, -0.11
AMD DG => $0.11, +0.01
BKC PX => $2.15
First, a memo was leaked indicating that Citigroup Inc operated with a profit for both January and February of this year. A surprising announcement considering the billions of dollars in government aid they have taken even up to the end of February.
So, if they truly are making a profit and can afford to give out some sort of bonus' to their Smith Barney fund managers, then why are they being given any aid at all. Why did the U.S. Government have to take a 36% stake in the company. Maybe if they had disclosed that they made been making a profit their stock price would not have dipped below $1.
So, the question arises, is it time to start considering Citigroup Inc. for a stock position? Only if you are a speculator. The stock price is well below all the commonly followed moving-averages (20/50/200), there has been no recognizable or significant candlestick patterns, the RSI is only now moving back up after being beaten below 30 points.
But on the side of speculators, the Chaikin Money Flow indicator is showing that volume is becoming less negative, the Stochastic and MACD indicators show that it is very oversold but turning.
So what am I doing? I am sitting on the side lines. I am going to wait for a pull back and an indication that this pop wasn't a one time thing.
Second, U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House financial services committee, said that the up-tick rule, intended to hinder shorting stocks unless they first moved up in price, may be reinstated within a month from now.
Well it looks like all the discussions on the financial media outlets have been heard. 'Bout time!
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,054.98, -31.05, -0.44%
Hang Seng => 11,694.05, +349.47, +3.08%
Straits Times => 1,485.75, +28.80, +1.98%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,715.23, +172.83, +4.88%
DAX => 3,886.98, +194.95, +5.28%
CAC => 2,663.68, +144.39, +5.73%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,926.49, +379.44, +5.80%
Nasdaq => 1,358.28, +89.64, +7.07%
S&P => 719.60, +43.07, +6.37%
As for me:
AMD =>$2.32, +0.18
MIPS => $2.36, +0.17
NG => $2.43, -0.11
AMD DG => $0.11, +0.01
BKC PX => $2.15
First, a memo was leaked indicating that Citigroup Inc operated with a profit for both January and February of this year. A surprising announcement considering the billions of dollars in government aid they have taken even up to the end of February.
So, if they truly are making a profit and can afford to give out some sort of bonus' to their Smith Barney fund managers, then why are they being given any aid at all. Why did the U.S. Government have to take a 36% stake in the company. Maybe if they had disclosed that they made been making a profit their stock price would not have dipped below $1.
So, the question arises, is it time to start considering Citigroup Inc. for a stock position? Only if you are a speculator. The stock price is well below all the commonly followed moving-averages (20/50/200), there has been no recognizable or significant candlestick patterns, the RSI is only now moving back up after being beaten below 30 points.
But on the side of speculators, the Chaikin Money Flow indicator is showing that volume is becoming less negative, the Stochastic and MACD indicators show that it is very oversold but turning.
So what am I doing? I am sitting on the side lines. I am going to wait for a pull back and an indication that this pop wasn't a one time thing.
Second, U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House financial services committee, said that the up-tick rule, intended to hinder shorting stocks unless they first moved up in price, may be reinstated within a month from now.
Well it looks like all the discussions on the financial media outlets have been heard. 'Bout time!
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Seesaw Day Ending Down
It was a seesaw of a day. The U.S. markets opened lower on sentiment with the international markets, but rallied shortly afterwards on news merger and acquisition news. A late rally in the European markets also followed this news.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,086.03, -87.07, -1.21%
Hang Seng => 11,344.58, -576.94, -4.84%
Straits Times => 1,456.95, -56.17, -3.71%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,542.40, +11.67, +0.33%
DAX => 3,692.03, +25.62, +0.70%
CAC => 2,519.29, -15.16, -0.60%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,547.05, -79.89, -1.21%
Nasdaq => 1,268.64, -25.21, -1.95%
S&P => 676.53, -6.85, -1.00%
As for me:
AMD => 2.14, unchanged
MIPS => 2.19, +0.06
NG => 2.54, -0.16
AMD DG => 0.10, +0.01
BKC PX => 2.15, +0.15
The Top Headlines of the Day:
Upon the open the U.S. markets rallied to the plus side on news that Merck successfully bought Schering-Plough for $41.1 billion. In addition, President Obama repealed President George W. Bush's act banning government funding of stem cell research using frozen embryos that would have been destroyed anyway.
Some pharmaceutical companies that I watch posted gains on this news. For instance Genentech Inc. (DNA) posted additional gains (92.63, +1.77) on top of the enormous gains it made last Friday when it was rumored that the repeal would occur today (Correction, this was on the buyout move of Roche). Others posted modes gains after gaping up, like Geron Corp. (GERN, 4.51, +0.64) and Stemcells Inc. (STEM, 1.98, +0.60). Of course, debates about the ethics of using frozen embryos continues.
Maybe the Republicans should consider these embryos in the same honor and respect that they consider the soldiers who died and were maimed for this country. Or maybe the Democrats should consider the soldiers in the same light that they consider the embryos. From my perspective, a loss of human life is a loss of human life, whether it is by enlistment, draft, or parental consent. It is like two neighbors straddling the same fence but leaning to either side and trying to make the other lean in the same way. They are both still straddling the fence.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,086.03, -87.07, -1.21%
Hang Seng => 11,344.58, -576.94, -4.84%
Straits Times => 1,456.95, -56.17, -3.71%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,542.40, +11.67, +0.33%
DAX => 3,692.03, +25.62, +0.70%
CAC => 2,519.29, -15.16, -0.60%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,547.05, -79.89, -1.21%
Nasdaq => 1,268.64, -25.21, -1.95%
S&P => 676.53, -6.85, -1.00%
As for me:
AMD => 2.14, unchanged
MIPS => 2.19, +0.06
NG => 2.54, -0.16
AMD DG => 0.10, +0.01
BKC PX => 2.15, +0.15
The Top Headlines of the Day:
Upon the open the U.S. markets rallied to the plus side on news that Merck successfully bought Schering-Plough for $41.1 billion. In addition, President Obama repealed President George W. Bush's act banning government funding of stem cell research using frozen embryos that would have been destroyed anyway.
Some pharmaceutical companies that I watch posted gains on this news. For instance Genentech Inc. (DNA) posted additional gains (92.63, +1.77) on top of the enormous gains it made last Friday when it was rumored that the repeal would occur today (Correction, this was on the buyout move of Roche). Others posted modes gains after gaping up, like Geron Corp. (GERN, 4.51, +0.64) and Stemcells Inc. (STEM, 1.98, +0.60). Of course, debates about the ethics of using frozen embryos continues.
Maybe the Republicans should consider these embryos in the same honor and respect that they consider the soldiers who died and were maimed for this country. Or maybe the Democrats should consider the soldiers in the same light that they consider the embryos. From my perspective, a loss of human life is a loss of human life, whether it is by enlistment, draft, or parental consent. It is like two neighbors straddling the same fence but leaning to either side and trying to make the other lean in the same way. They are both still straddling the fence.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
The People Watch the Watchmen
Apparently a lot of people watch the Watchmen. This weekend, so far, Watchmen brought in a gross of $55,655,000 at 3,611 theaters for an average of $15,413 per theater in only 3 days as of 7:00 PM, Sunday, March 8th, 2009. The company that distributes this movie is Warner Brothers, a subsidiary of Time Warner Inc. (TWX)
Current TWX is priced at $7.47 per share with weak relative strength and oversold conditions in both Stochastic and MACD. The Stochastic and the MACD, however, show signs of reversal. Also, the price movements of the past two days just barely illustrates a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. Not very promising in my opinion, but there is some probability.
I am not one to put a lot of money on a stock that has low probabilities but I am more likely to put money on the options for it. The 7.00APR09 call option is just in-the-money (ITM) and costs $0.86 per contract share with a Bid/Ask of 0.85/0.90. The 8.00APR09 put option is just ITM and costs $1.00 per contract share with a Bid/Ask of 0.90/0.95.
I won't be playing this, but I will be watching it for future reference as to the effect of box office earnings on the stock.
Investor's Opinion: Who watches the Watchmen?
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Current TWX is priced at $7.47 per share with weak relative strength and oversold conditions in both Stochastic and MACD. The Stochastic and the MACD, however, show signs of reversal. Also, the price movements of the past two days just barely illustrates a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. Not very promising in my opinion, but there is some probability.
I am not one to put a lot of money on a stock that has low probabilities but I am more likely to put money on the options for it. The 7.00APR09 call option is just in-the-money (ITM) and costs $0.86 per contract share with a Bid/Ask of 0.85/0.90. The 8.00APR09 put option is just ITM and costs $1.00 per contract share with a Bid/Ask of 0.90/0.95.
I won't be playing this, but I will be watching it for future reference as to the effect of box office earnings on the stock.
Investor's Opinion: Who watches the Watchmen?
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Friday, March 6, 2009
A Cruel Market
Today the market played a cruel joke. Despite the surging unemployment rate of 8.1 % the market decided to put in early gains, but that would be the set up of the joke. Before even being open half an hour, the market came tumbling down. The European markets were still open at the time and reaeacted by giving back most of their late gains.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,173.10, -260.39, -3.50%
Hang Seng => 11,921.52, -289.72, -2.37%
Straits Times => 1,513.12, -5.52, -0.36%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,530.73, +0.87, +0.02%
DAX => 3,666.41, -29.08, -0.79%
CAC => 2,534.45, -35.18, -1.37%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,626.94, +32.50, +0.49%
Nasdaq => 1,293.85, -5.74, -0.44%
S&P => 683.38, +0.83, +0.12%
As for me:
AMD => 2.14, -0.02
AMD DG => 0.09, -0.20
BKC PX => 2.00, -0.30
MIPS => 2.13, +0.21
NG => 2.70, -0.12
In other news:
Senator Charles Grassley (R) Iowa, among others in Washington, says that foreign workers should be fired first. My opinion agrees with that. By doing that it reduces the number of unemployed workers in the U.S. who will be reducing their consumption of goods here. Any job that can and is being performed on U.S. soil in this recession should be done by a U.S. citizen or resident. Once the economy here has stabilized, then and only then should H1-B visas be processed again. There is no valid reason to continue the importation of workers when the employee pool here is so rich with available workers who are already citizen's or permanent resident's.
Carl Guardino, makes the point that we were all immigrants at one time or another. That is only true if you weren't born here. And even then, the statement wasn't to kick them out, just to lay them off first. If they go back to there native countries because they can not afford to stay while looking for a new job, then so be it. Look at the numbers. How many of them have families here in the U.S. that depend on them? How much of the pay that they are earning is staying in the U.S.? My guess would be that it is not much in comparison. Effectively it is an economic bleed that has been tolerated for the purpose participation in the world economy. This is not the time to be expanding foreign business relation. Once the markets have stabilized, then the importation of workers can restart.
Electrolux CEO Hans Straberg told CNBC that failing businesses should be allowed to fail and not be propped up with any more state aid. If they can not survive the winter then they should be allowed to die. Now that is quite a barbaric stance to take in the business world, but truly a point that I can agree with. For instance, in the financial sector Bank of America, Citigroup, and many more others have become too big to survive, not the other way around. And adding failing banks to them was not the best thing to do.
It would have been so much better if the FDIC had just seized the failing banks that were swallowed up by BofA, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, and broke them up into regional holdings. Those regional holdings should then have been sold off to smaller regional banks that had enough liquid assets to purchase them. And then whatever was left should have been auctioned off for what could be salvaged and distributed as funding to the regional economies.
Again, Jon Najarian, co-founder of OpionMonster.com, appeared on CNBC promoting the suspension of mark-to-market. Again, how do you figure that? He says that by doing that the financial institutions will double in a matter of days. That is ludicrous because they still haven't proved that they have changed their business practices. And the big money investors are not going to invest in a pig with lipstick. Bad business practices is what got us here, not mark-to-market.
His appearance on CNBC increases my opinion that Jon Najarian has an ulterior motive. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that the exponential gains in options are paltry in the financial sector. There is not much left to play puts against, and maybe he is trying to do something to pump the market up so that he can profit on the rise of the supposedly "doubling" in price and profit on the dump that will most likely occur right after the bears take their money right back out. Electrolux CEO Hans Straberg understands this economy better. Let the bad businesses fail and divide what is left of their assets and sell to the smaller businesses that can afford to buy them. This includes the financial sector.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,173.10, -260.39, -3.50%
Hang Seng => 11,921.52, -289.72, -2.37%
Straits Times => 1,513.12, -5.52, -0.36%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,530.73, +0.87, +0.02%
DAX => 3,666.41, -29.08, -0.79%
CAC => 2,534.45, -35.18, -1.37%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,626.94, +32.50, +0.49%
Nasdaq => 1,293.85, -5.74, -0.44%
S&P => 683.38, +0.83, +0.12%
As for me:
AMD => 2.14, -0.02
AMD DG => 0.09, -0.20
BKC PX => 2.00, -0.30
MIPS => 2.13, +0.21
NG => 2.70, -0.12
In other news:
Senator Charles Grassley (R) Iowa, among others in Washington, says that foreign workers should be fired first. My opinion agrees with that. By doing that it reduces the number of unemployed workers in the U.S. who will be reducing their consumption of goods here. Any job that can and is being performed on U.S. soil in this recession should be done by a U.S. citizen or resident. Once the economy here has stabilized, then and only then should H1-B visas be processed again. There is no valid reason to continue the importation of workers when the employee pool here is so rich with available workers who are already citizen's or permanent resident's.
Carl Guardino, makes the point that we were all immigrants at one time or another. That is only true if you weren't born here. And even then, the statement wasn't to kick them out, just to lay them off first. If they go back to there native countries because they can not afford to stay while looking for a new job, then so be it. Look at the numbers. How many of them have families here in the U.S. that depend on them? How much of the pay that they are earning is staying in the U.S.? My guess would be that it is not much in comparison. Effectively it is an economic bleed that has been tolerated for the purpose participation in the world economy. This is not the time to be expanding foreign business relation. Once the markets have stabilized, then the importation of workers can restart.
Electrolux CEO Hans Straberg told CNBC that failing businesses should be allowed to fail and not be propped up with any more state aid. If they can not survive the winter then they should be allowed to die. Now that is quite a barbaric stance to take in the business world, but truly a point that I can agree with. For instance, in the financial sector Bank of America, Citigroup, and many more others have become too big to survive, not the other way around. And adding failing banks to them was not the best thing to do.
It would have been so much better if the FDIC had just seized the failing banks that were swallowed up by BofA, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, and broke them up into regional holdings. Those regional holdings should then have been sold off to smaller regional banks that had enough liquid assets to purchase them. And then whatever was left should have been auctioned off for what could be salvaged and distributed as funding to the regional economies.
Again, Jon Najarian, co-founder of OpionMonster.com, appeared on CNBC promoting the suspension of mark-to-market. Again, how do you figure that? He says that by doing that the financial institutions will double in a matter of days. That is ludicrous because they still haven't proved that they have changed their business practices. And the big money investors are not going to invest in a pig with lipstick. Bad business practices is what got us here, not mark-to-market.
His appearance on CNBC increases my opinion that Jon Najarian has an ulterior motive. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that the exponential gains in options are paltry in the financial sector. There is not much left to play puts against, and maybe he is trying to do something to pump the market up so that he can profit on the rise of the supposedly "doubling" in price and profit on the dump that will most likely occur right after the bears take their money right back out. Electrolux CEO Hans Straberg understands this economy better. Let the bad businesses fail and divide what is left of their assets and sell to the smaller businesses that can afford to buy them. This includes the financial sector.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Who Watches the Watchmen?
A new movie comes out this weekend call Watchmen. It is based on a graphic novel distributed by DC comics. Now, as far as I can tell, DC doesn't trade on the open market, but the distribution and production company that made Watchmen in to a movie is. Warner Bros. aka Time Warner Inc. (TWX)
At midnight on Thursday, March 5, 2009, Watchmen was released. And as of 2pm on Friday, March 6, 2009, TWX has had a bull of a day. Not much, but in this market a bull move is a bull move.
TWX opened and put in a low of 7.12 this morning and rallied up to a high of 7.47 with a pull back to 7.36. Now, that is only with a one night showing. That does cause some suspicion. Lets look at some more technicals.
The candlestick created is not finished being made as of 2PM, so can't use that. The RSI for this stock truly is not pretty in the mid-30s. The volume is not extraordinary but not depressing. The stochastics are way oversold and have been for some time, but they crossed up with today's move. The MACD is also way oversold, however, it has been slowly trending upward and has crossed upward with today's bull move in price.
So we have a very week stock with some week indicators that just barely suggest a change in trend. Not enough to sell me on making an investment either way. I definitely want to keep watching it though. I am thinking that if the box office numbers put it in the top 3 and by very tight numbers, TWX might be something to invest in, at least for a short time.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
At midnight on Thursday, March 5, 2009, Watchmen was released. And as of 2pm on Friday, March 6, 2009, TWX has had a bull of a day. Not much, but in this market a bull move is a bull move.
TWX opened and put in a low of 7.12 this morning and rallied up to a high of 7.47 with a pull back to 7.36. Now, that is only with a one night showing. That does cause some suspicion. Lets look at some more technicals.
The candlestick created is not finished being made as of 2PM, so can't use that. The RSI for this stock truly is not pretty in the mid-30s. The volume is not extraordinary but not depressing. The stochastics are way oversold and have been for some time, but they crossed up with today's move. The MACD is also way oversold, however, it has been slowly trending upward and has crossed upward with today's bull move in price.
So we have a very week stock with some week indicators that just barely suggest a change in trend. Not enough to sell me on making an investment either way. I definitely want to keep watching it though. I am thinking that if the box office numbers put it in the top 3 and by very tight numbers, TWX might be something to invest in, at least for a short time.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
False Positive Confirmed
Looks like all the bulls should have stayed on the side lines yesterday. Today, just about every index that I have been reporting on has taken a dump. The only exception to the malaise was Japan's Nikkei. It apparently didn't get the memo about China and continued to rally on news that the U.S. had a positive day.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,433.49, +142.53, +1.95%
Hang Seng => 12,211.24, -119.91, -0.97%
Straits Times => 1,518.64, -25.70, -1.66%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,529.86, -116.01, -3.18%
DAX => 3,695.49, -195.45, -5.02%
CAC => 2,569.63, -106.05,-3.96%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,595.32, -280.52, -4.08%
Nasdaq => 1,299.59, -54.15, -4.00%
S&P => 682.56, -30.31, -4.25%
As for me:
AMD => 2.15, -0.15
AMD DG => 0.10, -0.02
BKC PX => 2.30, +0.45 (Bought to Open @ Limit 1.85, Stop 1.30)
F => 1.78, -0.09 (Sold @ Stop $1.78)
HRP JZ => 0.90, -0.25(Sold to Close @ Market, Contingent on HRP < mips =""> 2.00, -0.05
NG => 2.79, +0.21
Further reports from the Associated Press fills in the why of this market tumble.
Boeing Reports Lower Orders
General Dynamics Cuts Production and Jobs
GM Survivability Questionable
Retailers Report Declines in Sales, Except Wal-Mart
12% Behind on Mortgage or in Foreclosure
If it wasn't for this one ray of sunshine, the market may have tumbled even further.
Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Drop
Apparently analysts expected the claims to drop only 20K and not the 31K from the 670K of the previous week. But don't celebrate just yet, the banks still haven't solved their issues. I still see the probability of further losses before a general market recovery can be claimed.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,433.49, +142.53, +1.95%
Hang Seng => 12,211.24, -119.91, -0.97%
Straits Times => 1,518.64, -25.70, -1.66%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,529.86, -116.01, -3.18%
DAX => 3,695.49, -195.45, -5.02%
CAC => 2,569.63, -106.05,-3.96%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,595.32, -280.52, -4.08%
Nasdaq => 1,299.59, -54.15, -4.00%
S&P => 682.56, -30.31, -4.25%
As for me:
AMD => 2.15, -0.15
AMD DG => 0.10, -0.02
BKC PX => 2.30, +0.45 (Bought to Open @ Limit 1.85, Stop 1.30)
F => 1.78, -0.09 (Sold @ Stop $1.78)
HRP JZ => 0.90, -0.25(Sold to Close @ Market, Contingent on HRP < mips =""> 2.00, -0.05
NG => 2.79, +0.21
Further reports from the Associated Press fills in the why of this market tumble.
Boeing Reports Lower Orders
General Dynamics Cuts Production and Jobs
GM Survivability Questionable
Retailers Report Declines in Sales, Except Wal-Mart
12% Behind on Mortgage or in Foreclosure
If it wasn't for this one ray of sunshine, the market may have tumbled even further.
Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Drop
Apparently analysts expected the claims to drop only 20K and not the 31K from the 670K of the previous week. But don't celebrate just yet, the banks still haven't solved their issues. I still see the probability of further losses before a general market recovery can be claimed.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Pick(s) for the Day
Today I have a pick to discuss. It is the home of the flame broiled Whopper, Burger King. (BKC) I am going to describe how I analyzed the chart and the indicators that I used in picking this stock.
First we will start with the candlestick indicator. Yesterday (03/04/09) it created a bearish candlestick indicator, known as a bearish harami. Simply put, the stock price closed lower than it's open, and this movement was within price range movement of the previous days. The day before the stock price closed higher than it's open. This indicator is a major that informs me that a pivot in the price direction is probable. It requires additional flags to confirm.
So now I analyze my other indicators. Lets look at the RSI (Relative Strenght Indicator). The RSI is at 58, not a good sign. This tells me that the stock has strength to continue to move up. This could be a disappointment but I don't dismiss it right away. So lets continue.
Lets look at the stock price relationship to the Bollinger Bands. Currently is at a the upper Bollinger Band. Now, I wouldn't put a lot of opinion on the Bollinger Bands, because they are a moving resistance or range indicator. They really only suggest that the stock should be watched for reversal indicators. So to me it is confirmed by the candlestick indicator and not the other way around.
I have two more indicators that I like to look at. They are Stochastics and MACD. Both of these agree with the chart that the stock is in an up trend. But that is not what I am concerned about at this point.
The Stochastics are presently near the 80 mark. The 80 mark is a standard indicator that the stock is overbought and that some selling is bound to take place. In addition the Stochastics have a signal line that follows its movement. If the Stochastic starts to turn toward the signal line in an attempt to cross it, then there is further probability that the stock is reversing. This just happens to be true on this day.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is similar to the Stochastics in that there is a primary line and a signal line. In this case I also have the histogram turned on that tells me what the difference in the two lines are. The histogram told me that the difference between the two lines was shrinking in comparison to the day before yesterday. So this is further indication that a reversal in movement is likely.
So because the price is at the upper Bollinger Band, the stock created a bearish harami candlestick pattern, the stochastics and MACD show signs that the move is at an end, I bought a put option against the King.
BKC PX => OTO 1.85, Stop @ 1.30 (Risk of 30%)
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
First we will start with the candlestick indicator. Yesterday (03/04/09) it created a bearish candlestick indicator, known as a bearish harami. Simply put, the stock price closed lower than it's open, and this movement was within price range movement of the previous days. The day before the stock price closed higher than it's open. This indicator is a major that informs me that a pivot in the price direction is probable. It requires additional flags to confirm.
So now I analyze my other indicators. Lets look at the RSI (Relative Strenght Indicator). The RSI is at 58, not a good sign. This tells me that the stock has strength to continue to move up. This could be a disappointment but I don't dismiss it right away. So lets continue.
Lets look at the stock price relationship to the Bollinger Bands. Currently is at a the upper Bollinger Band. Now, I wouldn't put a lot of opinion on the Bollinger Bands, because they are a moving resistance or range indicator. They really only suggest that the stock should be watched for reversal indicators. So to me it is confirmed by the candlestick indicator and not the other way around.
I have two more indicators that I like to look at. They are Stochastics and MACD. Both of these agree with the chart that the stock is in an up trend. But that is not what I am concerned about at this point.
The Stochastics are presently near the 80 mark. The 80 mark is a standard indicator that the stock is overbought and that some selling is bound to take place. In addition the Stochastics have a signal line that follows its movement. If the Stochastic starts to turn toward the signal line in an attempt to cross it, then there is further probability that the stock is reversing. This just happens to be true on this day.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is similar to the Stochastics in that there is a primary line and a signal line. In this case I also have the histogram turned on that tells me what the difference in the two lines are. The histogram told me that the difference between the two lines was shrinking in comparison to the day before yesterday. So this is further indication that a reversal in movement is likely.
So because the price is at the upper Bollinger Band, the stock created a bearish harami candlestick pattern, the stochastics and MACD show signs that the move is at an end, I bought a put option against the King.
BKC PX => OTO 1.85, Stop @ 1.30 (Risk of 30%)
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Market's Rebound
The market's rebounded greatly today despite reports that the U.S. private sector cut 697,000 more jobs in February and that the services sector shrank, although less than estimated, for the fifth straight month. The rally is being attributed to 1) announcements of a possible Chinese economic stimulus package that spured the bounce of the Asian markets; and 2) the released details about an Obama administration plan to help struggling homeowners.
The possible Chinese economic stimulus package peaked the interest of speculators who bumped up the price of oil and other basic materials, on the assumption that the Chinese economy may be getting restarted.
The released details of a government program designed to help as many as 9 million borrowers stay in their homes through refinanced mortgages or loans that are modified to lower monthly payments got some the bulls off the side lines and into some retail and consumable goods sectors in addition to the construction and basic materials sectors.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,290.96, +61.24, +0.85%
Hang Seng => 12,331.15, +297.27, +2.47%
Straits Times => 1,544.34, +15.83, +1.04%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,645.87, +133.78, +3.81%
DAX => 3,890.94, +200.22, +5.42%
CAC => 2,675.68, +121.13, +4.74%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,875.84, +149.82, +2.23%
Nasdaq => 1,353.74, +32.73, +2.48%
S&P => 712.87, +16.54, +2.38%
As for me:
AMD => 2.30, +0.23
AMD DG => 0.12, +0.02
F => 1.87, +0.06
HRP JZ => 1.15, -0.35
MIPS => 2.05, -0.01 (OTO: Buy @ Stop 2.08 - Limit 2.10, Sell @ Stop 1.78)
NG => 2.58, -0.02
QAV QZ => 1.53, -0.24, (Sold to Close @ 1.59)
Market Opinion:
A growing opinion in the market is that it may have created itself a bottom. This is on analysis of the VIX which moves opposite the S&P 500. An article by the Associated Press describes how it is believed that the volatility of the VIX has become more subdued in comparison to previous sell offs in October and November of 2008.
But my question is, can pattern recognition be applied to the volatility indices as well? If they can, then the rally today may just be another false positive.
The previous volatility run-ups of January and March of 2008 resembled a double top. And after a recovery from those run-ups in volatility, there was a steady but subtle increase in volatility until the run-ups in October and November which also resemble a double top.
Presently we are in another recovery period in the volatility, which is also in a subtle up trend like before. So before anyone gets their hopes up about the direction of the market, I would wait to see if this subtle volatility uptrend deflates into a downtrend.
Personally, I will be looking for more of these "diamond in the rough" stocks but for the general market I will remain bearish. Possibly until late 2009, early 2010.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
The possible Chinese economic stimulus package peaked the interest of speculators who bumped up the price of oil and other basic materials, on the assumption that the Chinese economy may be getting restarted.
The released details of a government program designed to help as many as 9 million borrowers stay in their homes through refinanced mortgages or loans that are modified to lower monthly payments got some the bulls off the side lines and into some retail and consumable goods sectors in addition to the construction and basic materials sectors.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,290.96, +61.24, +0.85%
Hang Seng => 12,331.15, +297.27, +2.47%
Straits Times => 1,544.34, +15.83, +1.04%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,645.87, +133.78, +3.81%
DAX => 3,890.94, +200.22, +5.42%
CAC => 2,675.68, +121.13, +4.74%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,875.84, +149.82, +2.23%
Nasdaq => 1,353.74, +32.73, +2.48%
S&P => 712.87, +16.54, +2.38%
As for me:
AMD => 2.30, +0.23
AMD DG => 0.12, +0.02
F => 1.87, +0.06
HRP JZ => 1.15, -0.35
MIPS => 2.05, -0.01 (OTO: Buy @ Stop 2.08 - Limit 2.10, Sell @ Stop 1.78)
NG => 2.58, -0.02
QAV QZ => 1.53, -0.24, (Sold to Close @ 1.59)
Market Opinion:
A growing opinion in the market is that it may have created itself a bottom. This is on analysis of the VIX which moves opposite the S&P 500. An article by the Associated Press describes how it is believed that the volatility of the VIX has become more subdued in comparison to previous sell offs in October and November of 2008.
But my question is, can pattern recognition be applied to the volatility indices as well? If they can, then the rally today may just be another false positive.
The previous volatility run-ups of January and March of 2008 resembled a double top. And after a recovery from those run-ups in volatility, there was a steady but subtle increase in volatility until the run-ups in October and November which also resemble a double top.
Presently we are in another recovery period in the volatility, which is also in a subtle up trend like before. So before anyone gets their hopes up about the direction of the market, I would wait to see if this subtle volatility uptrend deflates into a downtrend.
Personally, I will be looking for more of these "diamond in the rough" stocks but for the general market I will remain bearish. Possibly until late 2009, early 2010.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Uncle Sam's Economic Plan
Today I watched a recording of the CNBC interview with Eric Hovde of Hovde Capital Advisors LLC. (Uncle Sam's Economic Plan) This is another guy that has his head on straight. I will be commenting on it today. But before I do that let's review the markets.
Another wild ride in the markets today. The markets showed a wrestiling of position between the bulls and the bears in the U.S. markets, but the bears won out once again.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,229.72, -50.43, -0.69%
Hang Seng => 12,033.88, -283.58, -2.30%
Straits Times => 1,528.51, -4.89, -0.32%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,512.09, -113.74, -3.14%
DAX => 3,690.72, -19.35, -0.52%
CAC => 2,554.55, -26.91, -1.04%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,725.30, -37.99, -0.56%
Nasdaq => 1,321.01, -1.84, -0.14%
S&P => 696.33, -4.49, -0.64%
As for me:
AMD => 2.07, +0.06
F => 1.81, -0.07
NG=> 2.60, +0.06
AMD DG => 0.10, +0.01
HRP JZ =>1.50, unchanged
NLH JZ => 0.87, -0.68 (Sold to Close).
QAV QZ => 1.83, +0.06 (Bought to Open @ 1.77, Stop @ 1.59)
Because of the continuing lack of confidence in this administrations policy making, I am betting on the bears with a put position against the Nasdaq ETF, Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQQ, QAV QZ - 26MAY09Put). But as you can tell I am still holding on to most my bull positions unless their stops are met.
My reasons for holding are because of their extremely low price points, some technical indicators, and my inherent personal optimism in for those companies.
Now on to the interview, Uncle Sam's Economic Plan. Eric Hovde made a lot of good points that I want to reiterate. But first some numbers that I was interested to see. Residential real estate loans account for about 40% of total bank assets, commercial real estate loans accounts for about 24%, and business real estate loans accounts for about 20%. Right now it is the residential real estate that is dragging down the sector. It's Hovde's opinion that commercial real estate is not far behind from being added to the problem even while residential real estate continues to slide. He is looking for it to start reversing quickly if residential real estate finally stabilizes and turns around.
Hovde is also more realistic in my opinion and states that the U.S. is "rapidly and subtly falling into a depression." This, he says with the understanding that there really isn't a technical definition of a depression. I agree with Hovde, and I am sure most people do, that the credit bubble was the cause.
Despite the governments attempts, the market has a total lack of confidence in the administrations direction. The continuing opinion is that there are too many general ideas out there with few if any specifics about what is being done now to stimulate the economy. As a result the government appears to be quasi socialist at this time.
Hovde describes some examples as to how the stimulus does not focus enough on long lasting changes. One such example is on the building of a high speed rail. Hovde sees a high speed rail as a good idea, but where it is being planned for is the problem. "Anaheim to Vegas? Are you kidding me?! ... go to Disneyland and then gamble away [in the casinos]?", stated Hovde.
Hovde is not overly critical about all things. He understands extending unemployment benefits, funding police forces, health care and the like. He is mostly stunned by the degree and scope. He is even fine with paying higher taxes. (Hearing that shocked me.)
Things that Hovde disagrees with are the taking away of the home mortgage deduction, not for him but for all the others that need it in this housing recession. As far as the deduction for charitable contributions, Hovde is "infuriated" that it is being reduced at this time where charities are needed most.
Another issue that irritates Hovde is the exploitation of cramdown. He sees people gaming the system. He has actually been approached by individuals that are capable of paying there mortgage wanting to stop paying their mortgage just so that they can get a reduction in mortgage payment.
My opinion, why wasn't Hovde added to the President's cabinet?
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Another wild ride in the markets today. The markets showed a wrestiling of position between the bulls and the bears in the U.S. markets, but the bears won out once again.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,229.72, -50.43, -0.69%
Hang Seng => 12,033.88, -283.58, -2.30%
Straits Times => 1,528.51, -4.89, -0.32%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,512.09, -113.74, -3.14%
DAX => 3,690.72, -19.35, -0.52%
CAC => 2,554.55, -26.91, -1.04%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,725.30, -37.99, -0.56%
Nasdaq => 1,321.01, -1.84, -0.14%
S&P => 696.33, -4.49, -0.64%
As for me:
AMD => 2.07, +0.06
F => 1.81, -0.07
NG=> 2.60, +0.06
AMD DG => 0.10, +0.01
HRP JZ =>1.50, unchanged
NLH JZ => 0.87, -0.68 (Sold to Close).
QAV QZ => 1.83, +0.06 (Bought to Open @ 1.77, Stop @ 1.59)
Because of the continuing lack of confidence in this administrations policy making, I am betting on the bears with a put position against the Nasdaq ETF, Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQQ, QAV QZ - 26MAY09Put). But as you can tell I am still holding on to most my bull positions unless their stops are met.
My reasons for holding are because of their extremely low price points, some technical indicators, and my inherent personal optimism in for those companies.
Now on to the interview, Uncle Sam's Economic Plan. Eric Hovde made a lot of good points that I want to reiterate. But first some numbers that I was interested to see. Residential real estate loans account for about 40% of total bank assets, commercial real estate loans accounts for about 24%, and business real estate loans accounts for about 20%. Right now it is the residential real estate that is dragging down the sector. It's Hovde's opinion that commercial real estate is not far behind from being added to the problem even while residential real estate continues to slide. He is looking for it to start reversing quickly if residential real estate finally stabilizes and turns around.
Hovde is also more realistic in my opinion and states that the U.S. is "rapidly and subtly falling into a depression." This, he says with the understanding that there really isn't a technical definition of a depression. I agree with Hovde, and I am sure most people do, that the credit bubble was the cause.
Despite the governments attempts, the market has a total lack of confidence in the administrations direction. The continuing opinion is that there are too many general ideas out there with few if any specifics about what is being done now to stimulate the economy. As a result the government appears to be quasi socialist at this time.
Hovde describes some examples as to how the stimulus does not focus enough on long lasting changes. One such example is on the building of a high speed rail. Hovde sees a high speed rail as a good idea, but where it is being planned for is the problem. "Anaheim to Vegas? Are you kidding me?! ... go to Disneyland and then gamble away [in the casinos]?", stated Hovde.
Hovde is not overly critical about all things. He understands extending unemployment benefits, funding police forces, health care and the like. He is mostly stunned by the degree and scope. He is even fine with paying higher taxes. (Hearing that shocked me.)
Things that Hovde disagrees with are the taking away of the home mortgage deduction, not for him but for all the others that need it in this housing recession. As far as the deduction for charitable contributions, Hovde is "infuriated" that it is being reduced at this time where charities are needed most.
Another issue that irritates Hovde is the exploitation of cramdown. He sees people gaming the system. He has actually been approached by individuals that are capable of paying there mortgage wanting to stop paying their mortgage just so that they can get a reduction in mortgage payment.
My opinion, why wasn't Hovde added to the President's cabinet?
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Nationalization Revisited.
The financial sector continues to give the market a heart attack as AIG reports huge losses and the their bailout is renegotiated.
Asia is the first to react to the bad news:
Nikkei => 7,280.15, -288.27, -3.81%
Hang Seng => 12,317.46, -494.11, -3.86%
Straits Times => 1,533.40, -61.47, -3.85%
Europe didn't react any better:
FTSE => 3,625.83, -204.26, -5.33%
DAX => 3,710.07, -133.67, -3.48%
CAC => 2,581.46, -121.02, -4.48%
And the US finished the day:
Dow => 6,763.29, -299.64, -4.24%
Nasdaq => 1,322.85, -54.99, -3.99%
S&P => 700.82, -34.27, -4.66%
As for me:
AMD => 2.01, -0.17
F => 1.88, -0.12
NG => 2.54, -0.32
AMD DG => 0.09, -0.01
HRP JZ => 1.50, unchanged
NLH JZ =>1.55, unchanged
Today I listened to a Yahoo! Finance techticker interview by hosts Aaron Task and Henry Bloget, and their guest Nouriel Roubini of NYU's Stern School. In the interview they got Roubini's reaction to Bill Gross' comments that "nationalization is a bad idea." I believe Roubini made a few interesting points about how the "nationalization" of the banks isn't the same as the Swedish model that Gross is referring to. If you haven't watched the video, please do(2). This video is a continuation of the interview where Roubini encourages full nationalization as better(1).
Roubini comments in a way that indicates that the situation is no longer "if" the banks will be nationalized, but how and how much. He uses the words "partial" or "full" and illustrates that with Citigroup who is now 36% owned by the government. To him, anything over a third is effectively partially nationalized, and that is the status of Citigroup right now.
I personally don't agree with the idea of fully nationalizing the banks since it will wipe out the shareholders, of which I am not. However, Roubini does make a point at the end of the first video that could very well be true. He comments that at this point fully nationalizing Citigroup and Bank of America would barely have an effect on the market because their stock has already been beaten down so much. Nationalizing the "big banks" would only have about a 50 point effect on the Dow and the significant moves in the market are a result of systemic fear because of the financial sector.
Unfortunately, I see that as a continuing inevitability. News reports will still come out about how the government is disassembling these "to big to fail" banks and those reports will affect the stock value of other companies since these big banks are still the account providers for existing companies.
My opinion on what the government should do is very simple, yet not at all pretty. If the banks want to clean up their balance sheets, they should have to follow these 4 steps.
First, accept a moratorium on all incomplete foreclosures. This will provide time for the owners to get their act together for the last step.
Second, the banks will have to accept the government's offer to buy the bad assets from them at market value or for the foreclosure principle balance, whichever is least. This is fare because the Bank wants more but the government wants to pay less, neither will be happy.
Third, the government should then send the list of assets to the county court house for which the properties reside so that they can be auctioned off, starting at the value the government bought it from the banks for. The resulting amount should then be funneled into the counties budget to pay for education and infrastructure.
Forth, the banks should be forced to allow for every property owner the opportunity to refinance even if they are not in default yet.
Like I said, it is simple, not pretty.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Asia is the first to react to the bad news:
Nikkei => 7,280.15, -288.27, -3.81%
Hang Seng => 12,317.46, -494.11, -3.86%
Straits Times => 1,533.40, -61.47, -3.85%
Europe didn't react any better:
FTSE => 3,625.83, -204.26, -5.33%
DAX => 3,710.07, -133.67, -3.48%
CAC => 2,581.46, -121.02, -4.48%
And the US finished the day:
Dow => 6,763.29, -299.64, -4.24%
Nasdaq => 1,322.85, -54.99, -3.99%
S&P => 700.82, -34.27, -4.66%
As for me:
AMD => 2.01, -0.17
F => 1.88, -0.12
NG => 2.54, -0.32
AMD DG => 0.09, -0.01
HRP JZ => 1.50, unchanged
NLH JZ =>1.55, unchanged
Today I listened to a Yahoo! Finance techticker interview by hosts Aaron Task and Henry Bloget, and their guest Nouriel Roubini of NYU's Stern School. In the interview they got Roubini's reaction to Bill Gross' comments that "nationalization is a bad idea." I believe Roubini made a few interesting points about how the "nationalization" of the banks isn't the same as the Swedish model that Gross is referring to. If you haven't watched the video, please do(2). This video is a continuation of the interview where Roubini encourages full nationalization as better(1).
Roubini comments in a way that indicates that the situation is no longer "if" the banks will be nationalized, but how and how much. He uses the words "partial" or "full" and illustrates that with Citigroup who is now 36% owned by the government. To him, anything over a third is effectively partially nationalized, and that is the status of Citigroup right now.
I personally don't agree with the idea of fully nationalizing the banks since it will wipe out the shareholders, of which I am not. However, Roubini does make a point at the end of the first video that could very well be true. He comments that at this point fully nationalizing Citigroup and Bank of America would barely have an effect on the market because their stock has already been beaten down so much. Nationalizing the "big banks" would only have about a 50 point effect on the Dow and the significant moves in the market are a result of systemic fear because of the financial sector.
Unfortunately, I see that as a continuing inevitability. News reports will still come out about how the government is disassembling these "to big to fail" banks and those reports will affect the stock value of other companies since these big banks are still the account providers for existing companies.
My opinion on what the government should do is very simple, yet not at all pretty. If the banks want to clean up their balance sheets, they should have to follow these 4 steps.
First, accept a moratorium on all incomplete foreclosures. This will provide time for the owners to get their act together for the last step.
Second, the banks will have to accept the government's offer to buy the bad assets from them at market value or for the foreclosure principle balance, whichever is least. This is fare because the Bank wants more but the government wants to pay less, neither will be happy.
Third, the government should then send the list of assets to the county court house for which the properties reside so that they can be auctioned off, starting at the value the government bought it from the banks for. The resulting amount should then be funneled into the counties budget to pay for education and infrastructure.
Forth, the banks should be forced to allow for every property owner the opportunity to refinance even if they are not in default yet.
Like I said, it is simple, not pretty.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Subscribe To
Posts
All Comments