Portfolio Update

Once again, I have made changes to my portfolio, so here is my portfolio update. Since I have been adding cash to my account, I had enough to make an order. I chose to add to my CNK position in the event that it would pull back to $21.50.

Well, it did. But a little more than I had expected. Apparently the Federal Reserve statements, Existing Home Sales, and Jobless Claims reports this week didn't give the market much solace, even though the European economic scene seems to have stabilized for the moment. But that can change any day.

I will continue to add cash to my account and put in orders to add to my existing positions. I believe the market will be more bearish this summer as Congress continues to perpetrate what they can to force a presidential change this fall by doing nothing that the current president has asked them to do. This is not me saying that I support Barack Obama, nor do I support Mitt Romney. I am of the opinion that Presidents have become nothing more than figure-heads. It is congress that actually has all the real power to help the economy.That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

CNK - Cinemark Holdings, Inc.

Day Five of the Bull?

The markets go for a fifth day of gains. But were they able to make it? The Asian markets start off with mixed gains but up in the green. Europe continues the rally making solid gains in all indecies. But as for the U.S., it looks like the train just ran out of steam.

Despite week economic news and the report that AIG is giving out bonuses with tax payer money, the U.S. indecies marched upwards. However, that was short lived. As of the closing bell, all indecies ended negative.

Standing news is that President Obama has ordered that every legal avenue be explored to block the AIG bonuses.

Asia:
Nikkei => 7,704.15, +134.87, +1.78%
Hang Seng => 12,976.71, +450.91, +3.60%
Straits Times => 1,586.32, +8.80, +0.56%

Europe:
FTSE => 3,863.99, +110.31, +2.94%
DAX => 4,044.54, +90.94, +2.30%
CAC => 2,791.66, +86.03, +3.18%

US:
Dow => 7,216.97, -7.01, -0.10%
Nasdaq => 1,404.02, -27.48, -1.92%
S&P => 753.89, -2.66, -0.35%

Me:
AMD => 2.48, -0.04
F => 2.10, -0.09
NG => 2.40, -0.06
FPL DI => 3.60, +1.16

Looking into the technicals of this rally, it looks like the bull is about to be slaughtered by the bear. And here are the reasons why.

• We had 4 full days of overall gains in the U.S. market.
• The Dow has put in what appears to be a grave stone doji,
• The S&P is more of an inverted hammer (but it might as well be a grave stone), and
• The Nasdaq put in a solid bullish engulfing.
• None of the indices broke above the 50 point threshold of the RSI indicator.
• We have the stochastics and MACD of all three indices approaching oversold levels, plus the MACD is under the zero line as it has been the entire rally. So if you are not in the market now, it's too late anyway.

What is the market going to do tomorrow. I predict a 10% chance of a big rally, 30% chance of stagnant movement, but a 60% chance of the bears taking over. Time for me to analyze and put in a few put plays for the coming week.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.

Seesaw Day Ending Down

It was a seesaw of a day. The U.S. markets opened lower on sentiment with the international markets, but rallied shortly afterwards on news merger and acquisition news. A late rally in the European markets also followed this news.

Asia:
Nikkei => 7,086.03, -87.07, -1.21%
Hang Seng => 11,344.58, -576.94, -4.84%
Straits Times => 1,456.95, -56.17, -3.71%

Europe:
FTSE => 3,542.40, +11.67, +0.33%
DAX => 3,692.03, +25.62, +0.70%
CAC => 2,519.29, -15.16, -0.60%

U.S.:
Dow => 6,547.05, -79.89, -1.21%
Nasdaq => 1,268.64, -25.21, -1.95%
S&P => 676.53, -6.85, -1.00%

As for me:
AMD => 2.14, unchanged
MIPS => 2.19, +0.06
NG => 2.54, -0.16
AMD DG => 0.10, +0.01
BKC PX => 2.15, +0.15

The Top Headlines of the Day:
Upon the open the U.S. markets rallied to the plus side on news that Merck successfully bought Schering-Plough for $41.1 billion. In addition, President Obama repealed President George W. Bush's act banning government funding of stem cell research using frozen embryos that would have been destroyed anyway.

Some pharmaceutical companies that I watch posted gains on this news. For instance Genentech Inc. (DNA) posted additional gains (92.63, +1.77) on top of the enormous gains it made last Friday when it was rumored that the repeal would occur today (Correction, this was on the buyout move of Roche). Others posted modes gains after gaping up, like Geron Corp. (GERN, 4.51, +0.64) and Stemcells Inc. (STEM, 1.98, +0.60). Of course, debates about the ethics of using frozen embryos continues.

Maybe the Republicans should consider these embryos in the same honor and respect that they consider the soldiers who died and were maimed for this country. Or maybe the Democrats should consider the soldiers in the same light that they consider the embryos. From my perspective, a loss of human life is a loss of human life, whether it is by enlistment, draft, or parental consent. It is like two neighbors straddling the same fence but leaning to either side and trying to make the other lean in the same way. They are both still straddling the fence.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.

Market's Rebound

The market's rebounded greatly today despite reports that the U.S. private sector cut 697,000 more jobs in February and that the services sector shrank, although less than estimated, for the fifth straight month. The rally is being attributed to 1) announcements of a possible Chinese economic stimulus package that spured the bounce of the Asian markets; and 2) the released details about an Obama administration plan to help struggling homeowners.

The possible Chinese economic stimulus package peaked the interest of speculators who bumped up the price of oil and other basic materials, on the assumption that the Chinese economy may be getting restarted.

The released details of a government program designed to help as many as 9 million borrowers stay in their homes through refinanced mortgages or loans that are modified to lower monthly payments got some the bulls off the side lines and into some retail and consumable goods sectors in addition to the construction and basic materials sectors.

Asia:
Nikkei => 7,290.96, +61.24, +0.85%
Hang Seng => 12,331.15, +297.27, +2.47%
Straits Times => 1,544.34, +15.83, +1.04%

Europe:
FTSE => 3,645.87, +133.78, +3.81%
DAX => 3,890.94, +200.22, +5.42%
CAC => 2,675.68, +121.13, +4.74%

U.S.:
Dow => 6,875.84, +149.82, +2.23%
Nasdaq => 1,353.74, +32.73, +2.48%
S&P => 712.87, +16.54, +2.38%

As for me:
AMD => 2.30, +0.23
AMD DG => 0.12, +0.02
F => 1.87, +0.06
HRP JZ => 1.15, -0.35
MIPS => 2.05, -0.01 (OTO: Buy @ Stop 2.08 - Limit 2.10, Sell @ Stop 1.78)
NG => 2.58, -0.02
QAV QZ => 1.53, -0.24, (Sold to Close @ 1.59)

Market Opinion:
A growing opinion in the market is that it may have created itself a bottom. This is on analysis of the VIX which moves opposite the S&P 500. An article by the Associated Press describes how it is believed that the volatility of the VIX has become more subdued in comparison to previous sell offs in October and November of 2008.

But my question is, can pattern recognition be applied to the volatility indices as well? If they can, then the rally today may just be another false positive.

The previous volatility run-ups of January and March of 2008 resembled a double top. And after a recovery from those run-ups in volatility, there was a steady but subtle increase in volatility until the run-ups in October and November which also resemble a double top.

Presently we are in another recovery period in the volatility, which is also in a subtle up trend like before. So before anyone gets their hopes up about the direction of the market, I would wait to see if this subtle volatility uptrend deflates into a downtrend.

Personally, I will be looking for more of these "diamond in the rough" stocks but for the general market I will remain bearish. Possibly until late 2009, early 2010.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.

Pres. Obama's Budget Plan - Pros, Cons, My Thoughts

Today, I actually have something to say so the market overview is going to be quick.

Asia
Nikkei => 7,568.42, +110.49, +1.48%
Hang Seng => 12,811.57, -83.37, -0.65%
Straits Times => 1,594.87, -22.57, -1.40%

Europe
FTSE => 3,830.09, -85.55, -2.18%
DAX => 3,843.74, -98.88, -2.51%
CAC => 2,702.48, -42.36, -1.54%

U.S.
Dow => 7,062.93, -119.15, -1.66%
Nasdaq => 1,377.84, -13.63, -0.98%
S&P => 735.09, -17.74, -2.36%

My portfolio:
AMD => $2.18, +0.09
AMD DG => $0.10, unchanged
F => $2.00, +0.02
HRP JZ => $1.50, unchanged
NLH JZ => $1.55, unchanged
NG => $2.86, -0.07

When President Obama revealed the initial steps taken by his economic budget committee, he addressed agriculture, energy, unemployment, benefits, taxes, industrial waste, health care, and education. That is a lot of information at one time. It definitely says a lot, but it also leaves out a lot. The only way to get that information is to actually sit by and read all that information and I am not one to do it. But I will give you my opinion.

The biggest pro that the media is failing to see, that I believe Pres. Obama wanted to get across is that his administration did hit the ground running. As mention above, a lot was addressed in a short a short address. However, that is also one of the biggest cons. Too much at one time.

In addition to there being too much at one time, it also, as has been the norm, failed to go into substantial detail about the positive moves that have already been taken. Sure, he mentioned an increase to the COBRA health care benefit, as well as the unemployment pay benefit, but beyond that Pres. Obama went into generalities about the other positives in his budget plan.

I believe there should have been more detail given about how his administration is promoting the development of the wind and solar energy industry. Pres. Obama failed to elaborate on how his administration is going to create jobs to fulfill the reforms to agriculture, health care, and education that he mentioned. By failing to elaborate on those programs, the word "cut" stood out more as a negative.

The cut to the tax deductions of those making more than $250K stood out as a negative, that all of the media personalities, took as an attack on them. That was all that was needed to get them on the offensive. Today, several media outlets, like CNBC and the New York Post, railed against this budget plan. Because they are the ones that are the means of disseminating the news to the masses, they are going to skew the information in their favor. They are going to focus on all of the possible negatives that could result.

The cut to the health care programs and educational programs that do not work, should have been reworded. Because of the wording, the health care sector took a hit and dragged the market down. A better way to have worded it would have been to say that "the funding of health care subsidies will be redistributed to more effective programs to create jobs for the American people", or that "the funding of failing programs will be added to the budget to accomplish the electronic medical record keeping program." Anything along those lines would have surely reduced the hemorrhage of the sector.

Two things that seem to be the biggest issue are the cutting of taxes and the closing of the loop wholes. Sweeping changes like that without explaining how that helps the economy only adds to the economic decline. The mentality of the "rich" is that if they can't reduce the money they pay in taxes by some sort of means, then where is the incentive not to hoard it? In order for the "rich" to feel comfortable letting go of the cash, tax deductions for doing so are needed. It would have been better to say that "the tax loop wholes that allow businesses to export jobs will be replaced with deductions for creating jobs in the U.S."

The need for the government to spend billions per project to stimulate the economy with a resulting price tag in the trillions is unnecessary. The private sectors are already equipped and innovative enough to do it on their own, they just need the incentive and capital to do it. Have all the project proposals that the senators and representatives want to accomplish put on a government website, where U.S. based businesses can read them and apply with their business plans and bids to do them. Let the incentive for them to do so be government funding, and tax deductions for hiring U.S. citizens and residents. Then lets see if you don't get bipartisanship in congress. I am confident that you will.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.

Today's Market Recap.

Greetings! How did the markets fare today? Lets start with the international markets.

The Asian markets produced a mixture of results. Although all three major indecies opened higher, but only one was able close with a gain. The Nikkei closed at 7,457.93 for a loss of -3.29 points, a -0.04% move. The Hang Seng closed at 12,894.94 for a loss of -110.14 points, a -0.85% move. And that leaves us with the Straits Times which closed at 1,617.44 for a fractional gain of +0.65 points, a +0.04% move.

In the European markets all three major indecies had bull days. The FTSE closed at 3,915.64 for a gain of +66.66 points, a +1.73% move. The DAX closed at 3,942.62 for a gain of +96.41, a +2.51% move. And the CAC closed at 2,744.84 for a gain of +47.92, a move of +1.78%.

The Dow closed at 7,182.08 for a loss of -88.81 points, a -1.22% move. The NASDAQ closed at 1,391.47 for a loss of -33.96 points, a -2.38% move. The S&P closed at 752.83 for a loss of -12.07 points, a -1.58% move.

Initially the three major U.S. indecies opened with a bullish warcry swallowing up the losses of the previous day in the first couple hours. This was on the rumors that the government aid deal with Citigroup may come out this week; also the news that the government continues to support private banking and not nationalization.

Shortly afterwards news that President Obama unveiled details about his 10-year budgeting plan surfaced. Following that news, it appears the bears went to market and cashed out, erasing all the progress that the market had made. Additional news that new home sales fell to a record low in January did not help the situation.

The media would have you believe what was heard in President Obama's speech caused the market to go down. But one could also argue that his speech made it go up, because during his speech the Dow rose back to an earlier intraday high. What did cause the market to go down was the realization that the budget cuts to all of those private health programs that were not working for the good of the citizens cause all investors to pull out of several of them. Chances are that as soon as understanding about which private health insurance companies were not waistful becomes apparent, those will start to go up while the rest will reform so that they will be viable to government subsidies.

I still find surprising that despite the assumptions about the bank stress test and the list of weak banks increasing didn't cause those sectors to decline. Four of the leading industries on Yahoo's Industry Center were banks. Sadly though the worries about the health care sector was over powering.

But there is some good knows. For the week, so far, the Dow is only down half of what it down at the end of last week and there is only one market day left. This investor thinks that profits taken today will start to funnel into other sectors, probably healthcare and education as those were the sectors talked about by President Obama.

My portfolio as it stands today:
AMD - My position on Advanced Micro Devices closed today down at 2.09.
F - My position on Ford Motors closed today down at 1.98.
FPL - Florida Power & Light continued to decline today breaking and holding below the support level that I was counting on for it to return to the up side. I will allow it to expire and not resubmit another one until I see evidence that a positive move is in the works. For that reason I shall be leaving it out of my posts until further notice.
HRP JZ - My 2.50Oct09 call on HRPT Property Trust (HRP) closed unchanged at 1.50
NLH JZ - My 2.50Oct09 call on Libery Media (LINTA) closed unchanged at 1.55

There are also two other positions that I had prior to opening this blog that I wish to include and will be commenting on.
AMD DG - I have a 3.00Apr09 call on AMD which closed down at 0.10
NG - I have a position on NovaGold which I added to today. Reasons? It's price has changed direction to the upside, and it has reached and bounced off of my indicators that it has been oversold and momentum has shifted. There is, however, a recent ceiling at about $4, so there may not be much room for it to go up, unless it breaks through. That is okay since the goal with this stock is to sell OTM calls against it so I am just increasing my stake for future use. NovaGold closed up at 2.93, but slightly under where I added to my position.

My day wasn't good but not that bad. I shall be looking for other opportunites and will be posting if I see something.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.