Monday, March 16, 2009

Day Five of the Bull?

The markets go for a fifth day of gains. But were they able to make it? The Asian markets start off with mixed gains but up in the green. Europe continues the rally making solid gains in all indecies. But as for the U.S., it looks like the train just ran out of steam.

Despite week economic news and the report that AIG is giving out bonuses with tax payer money, the U.S. indecies marched upwards. However, that was short lived. As of the closing bell, all indecies ended negative.

Standing news is that President Obama has ordered that every legal avenue be explored to block the AIG bonuses.

Asia:
Nikkei => 7,704.15, +134.87, +1.78%
Hang Seng => 12,976.71, +450.91, +3.60%
Straits Times => 1,586.32, +8.80, +0.56%

Europe:
FTSE => 3,863.99, +110.31, +2.94%
DAX => 4,044.54, +90.94, +2.30%
CAC => 2,791.66, +86.03, +3.18%

US:
Dow => 7,216.97, -7.01, -0.10%
Nasdaq => 1,404.02, -27.48, -1.92%
S&P => 753.89, -2.66, -0.35%

Me:
AMD => 2.48, -0.04
F => 2.10, -0.09
NG => 2.40, -0.06
FPL DI => 3.60, +1.16

Looking into the technicals of this rally, it looks like the bull is about to be slaughtered by the bear. And here are the reasons why.
  • We had 4 full days of overall gains in the U.S. market.
  • The Dow has put in what appears to be a grave stone doji,
  • The S&P is more of an inverted hammer (but it might as well be a grave stone), and
  • The Nasdaq put in a solid bullish engulfing.
  • None of the indices broke above the 50 point threshold of the RSI indicator.
  • We have the stochastics and MACD of all three indices approaching oversold levels, plus the MACD is under the zero line as it has been the entire rally. So if you are not in the market now, it's too late anyway.

What is the market going to do tomorrow. I predict a 10% chance of a big rally, 30% chance of stagnant movement, but a 60% chance of the bears taking over. Time for me to analyze and put in a few put plays for the coming week.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.

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