Again, I lost track of time and am playing catch up. This was the market results for the week ending 4-25-2009
U.S.
Dow => 8,076.29, -55.04
Nasdaq => 1,694.29, +21.22
S&P => 866.23, -3.37
Mine
NG => 2.65, +.31
CVX QJ => 0.05, -0.05
FPL QH => 0.10, -0.05
Market Outlook
Well, for the past few weeks I have been saying that the market is going down. And I am not above admitting that I can be wrong. However, am I? So far the market has been going sideways, and that does say a lot. What does it say?
It says that their are still sectors that are resisting the still poor economic data. It also says that the economy is very close to a rebound. It won't be long until an official bull market starts.
So what is my opinion? I don't think the next pull back will be as deep as I was expecting. the indices that I report on probably won't fall below the 7,500, 1500, and 800 points levels respectively. At which time we should see another bull move or indication of persisting bearishness.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Market Results
Another week has gone buy and it was option expiration this week. I have a few things to say about the stock and options market. But before I go into that, let's get to the market summary.
U.S.
Dow => 8131.33, +47.95
Nasdaq => 1673.07, +20.53
S&P => 869.60, +13.04
Mine
AMD => 3.56, -0.19 (Sell Assigned@3.00 by AMD DG)
F => 4.00, -0.24 (Sell Assigned@3.00 by F DG)
NG => 2.34, -0.58
CVX QJ => 0.10, -0.10
FPL QH => 0.15, unchanged
Market Outlook
My opinion of the market still hasn't changed. Yes, the government officials of China and the United States say that the economy isn't that bad and is actually showing signs of improvement, and I agree with them. But, we are not talking about the economy. We are talking about a more specific topic. The stock market.
As I have been mentioning for the past few weeks, the market is over bought, too much money is in it for this cycle. Every week has been showing week gains. This is one indication that the market is running out of steam. It is only a matter of time until the market reverses. Now, the reversal probably won't be very large, but it must occur before the market can move significantly higher.
U.S.
Dow => 8131.33, +47.95
Nasdaq => 1673.07, +20.53
S&P => 869.60, +13.04
Mine
AMD => 3.56, -0.19 (Sell Assigned@3.00 by AMD DG)
F => 4.00, -0.24 (Sell Assigned@3.00 by F DG)
NG => 2.34, -0.58
CVX QJ => 0.10, -0.10
FPL QH => 0.15, unchanged
Market Outlook
My opinion of the market still hasn't changed. Yes, the government officials of China and the United States say that the economy isn't that bad and is actually showing signs of improvement, and I agree with them. But, we are not talking about the economy. We are talking about a more specific topic. The stock market.
As I have been mentioning for the past few weeks, the market is over bought, too much money is in it for this cycle. Every week has been showing week gains. This is one indication that the market is running out of steam. It is only a matter of time until the market reverses. Now, the reversal probably won't be very large, but it must occur before the market can move significantly higher.
Options Market
So I got assigned. Oh well. You win some, you loose some. My Ford and AMD stock got called away from me because this bull move has been resisting the inevitable. It can't maintain these levels for much longer, but it did it long enough to get me called out.
Oh well. At least I made a profit on my stock positions. Both Ford and AMD were originally purchased at 1.92 and 2.21 respectively.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Weekly Report for Week Ending 4-10-2009
I am sorry for being a few days late on the weekly report. So lets get right to it.
U.S.
Dow => 8083.38, +65.79
Nasdaq => 1652.54, +30.67
S&P => 856.56, +14.06
Mine
AMD => 3.75, +0.32
F => 4.24, +0.99
NG => 2.92, +0.15
CVX QJ => 0.15, -0.05
FPL QH => 0.15, -0.40
My outlook is that the market is still going down from here. This is because all momentum indicators I watch are still slowing and reversing. I don't want to sound like a broken record so if you want to see what I am looking at that causes me to think that, just read the last two weekly reports. I don't mean to be rude but, seriously, do you want to see the same reasons written over and over again?
Now it looks like my option picks didn't work out very well for me, but I still have a month left, and things are turning in my opinion, I am just going to wait them out.
I have two cover calls that I haven't been posting. One is on AMD and the other is on Ford. They are both ITM so they might be called away from me this Friday since it is option expiration. But I am going to allow it to ride. The option is two expensive for me to buy back but I made enough profit on the stocks to be satisfied with being called away.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
U.S.
Dow => 8083.38, +65.79
Nasdaq => 1652.54, +30.67
S&P => 856.56, +14.06
Mine
AMD => 3.75, +0.32
F => 4.24, +0.99
NG => 2.92, +0.15
CVX QJ => 0.15, -0.05
FPL QH => 0.15, -0.40
My outlook is that the market is still going down from here. This is because all momentum indicators I watch are still slowing and reversing. I don't want to sound like a broken record so if you want to see what I am looking at that causes me to think that, just read the last two weekly reports. I don't mean to be rude but, seriously, do you want to see the same reasons written over and over again?
Now it looks like my option picks didn't work out very well for me, but I still have a month left, and things are turning in my opinion, I am just going to wait them out.
I have two cover calls that I haven't been posting. One is on AMD and the other is on Ford. They are both ITM so they might be called away from me this Friday since it is option expiration. But I am going to allow it to ride. The option is two expensive for me to buy back but I made enough profit on the stocks to be satisfied with being called away.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Weekly Report
This past week was another bull week. That makes 4 weeks of positive gains in a row. Does this mean that the bear market is over? I don't think so and I will tell you why.
U.S.
Dow => 8017.59, +246.41
Nasdaq => 1621.87, +76.67
S&P => 842.50, +26.56
Mine
AMD => 3.43, +0.06
F => 3.25, +0.41
NG => 2.96, +0.24
CVX QJ => 0.20, -0.35 (Bought To Open @0.55, 03/31/2009)
FPL QH => 0.55, unchanged (Bought To Open @0.55, 03/31/2009)
So Why Is The Bear Market Not Over?
The reason is simple, momentum is still slowing on this bull. The point increases this week are still relatively small. Two of the above closings are still within the resistance ranges I mentioned last week. And, although the Nasdaq moved over the resistance range I mentioned, it only did so by a point value that is marginally greater than the actual margin I mentioned.
All of the other reasons I mentioned last week are still relatively valid for this week, as well. The Stochastic and MACD for all three of the major indices are still overbought. The RSI for all three returned to their levels of last week. In fact they exceeded them, but they lost momentum on the last couple days. Their projection indicates lowering in the near future.
What Is The Opinionated Investor Doing?
Using the information I just mentioned I am definitely not buying Long or Call positions right now. I actually bought a couple Put positions for the time being, specifically, Chevron and FPL (of course).
Why Put positions? Reason number one being that I don't Short stocks. Not my style. Number two, I don't think spring break will be as productive this year as it was last year. Ill effects of the recession. Also, Florida's spring hasn't started out as hot as it usually does and the winter in the Southeast hasn't been that bad, so I perceive the need for these two energy producers to be less than usual, at least at first.
Explaining My Actions
Now I am playing them a little riskier than I normally would. They were bought about two strike prices OTM in higher multiples. There are a few reasons I did this. One, I actually spend less money on them. Two, I make more profit on them as they become closer to ATM and ITM. Three, the time decay is "slightly" slower than if I were ATM or ITM.
The normal and safer strategy is to buy them ATM or 1 strike price ITM. It is safer because you then at least have intrinsic value (the positive difference in value between the strike price you bought and the price the stock is currently). Intrinsic value is the only substantial value that is left right before an option expires. After an option expires, even intrinsic value vanishes. That is why options are never held until expiration.
If I know this then why am I buying OTM options? The reason is because I am consciously betting on my expectation that the stocks will reach, at least, ATM intrinsic value soon. I believe the following week will start off stagnant and then close lower. Maybe, only by a little. Afterwards, there will be further declines and then another rally that will shatter the current resistance level. I expect to be stopped out by the bounce. At which time I will be following up with the purchase of Calls and going Long on stocks that I will sell Calls against.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
U.S.
Dow => 8017.59, +246.41
Nasdaq => 1621.87, +76.67
S&P => 842.50, +26.56
Mine
AMD => 3.43, +0.06
F => 3.25, +0.41
NG => 2.96, +0.24
CVX QJ => 0.20, -0.35 (Bought To Open @0.55, 03/31/2009)
FPL QH => 0.55, unchanged (Bought To Open @0.55, 03/31/2009)
So Why Is The Bear Market Not Over?
The reason is simple, momentum is still slowing on this bull. The point increases this week are still relatively small. Two of the above closings are still within the resistance ranges I mentioned last week. And, although the Nasdaq moved over the resistance range I mentioned, it only did so by a point value that is marginally greater than the actual margin I mentioned.
All of the other reasons I mentioned last week are still relatively valid for this week, as well. The Stochastic and MACD for all three of the major indices are still overbought. The RSI for all three returned to their levels of last week. In fact they exceeded them, but they lost momentum on the last couple days. Their projection indicates lowering in the near future.
What Is The Opinionated Investor Doing?
Using the information I just mentioned I am definitely not buying Long or Call positions right now. I actually bought a couple Put positions for the time being, specifically, Chevron and FPL (of course).
Why Put positions? Reason number one being that I don't Short stocks. Not my style. Number two, I don't think spring break will be as productive this year as it was last year. Ill effects of the recession. Also, Florida's spring hasn't started out as hot as it usually does and the winter in the Southeast hasn't been that bad, so I perceive the need for these two energy producers to be less than usual, at least at first.
Explaining My Actions
Now I am playing them a little riskier than I normally would. They were bought about two strike prices OTM in higher multiples. There are a few reasons I did this. One, I actually spend less money on them. Two, I make more profit on them as they become closer to ATM and ITM. Three, the time decay is "slightly" slower than if I were ATM or ITM.
The normal and safer strategy is to buy them ATM or 1 strike price ITM. It is safer because you then at least have intrinsic value (the positive difference in value between the strike price you bought and the price the stock is currently). Intrinsic value is the only substantial value that is left right before an option expires. After an option expires, even intrinsic value vanishes. That is why options are never held until expiration.
If I know this then why am I buying OTM options? The reason is because I am consciously betting on my expectation that the stocks will reach, at least, ATM intrinsic value soon. I believe the following week will start off stagnant and then close lower. Maybe, only by a little. Afterwards, there will be further declines and then another rally that will shatter the current resistance level. I expect to be stopped out by the bounce. At which time I will be following up with the purchase of Calls and going Long on stocks that I will sell Calls against.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
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