It was another soft day in the markets, folks. Mostly there were fractional gains in the indices with a few surprises to me. For example, there were solid percentage gains in the Airline and Banking sectors. Looks like consumers are buying gifts and preparing to go out of town for Christmas.
As for me, I had a mixed day. CVX lost value all around. FPL stock went up, but time decay took a bite out of my Call Option. MU gained value but parked itself at bearish trending resistance. SLV also gained value.
Today, I had a couple orders execute. New to my portfolio are CPLP and EVEP. They both executed in the first half of the day. Unfortunately, neither was followed by a sustainable rally. So currently I am in a slight loss on both of them.
My paper trades are still sitting unfilled, so there is nothing to report there. My opinion about them is that they are going to do what I suspected of them. I prognosticated in my posts last wee that S is probably going to continue to pull back to a bullish trending support line before bouncing, and PCS is going trend sideways for a little bit before it takes off. I suspect these to occur some time toward the end of this week and the middle of next week. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Monday, November 30, 2009
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Personal Stock Pick
I am making a personal stock pick for Monday. It will be for 10 shares of EVEP. This is one of the stocks in the energy sector that I have been watching. It is actually considered fundamentally unworthy because of it's highe EPS and low PE. However, it has a track record of defying it's fundamentals. Additionally it has a dividend yield of over 11%. Yes, it is near it's 52-week high. But I truly want to find out how much profit it can make, as well as how much profit it has to make before it is considered a fundamentally favorable company. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Friday, November 27, 2009
Portfolio Update
The market's half day today was a "bear" to say the least. Everything except the treasuries took a beating today. Here is how I did.
CVX opened much lower to an old trend line and then climbed back to close just over $78. In comparison to yesterdays close this is recorded as a loosing day. As a result my Call Option on it also lost value.
FPL opened lower, and closed even lower, but remained above the current trend line it has been operating against. There was, however, some unusual behavior. My Call Option on it gained value. This can only be attributed to there being more bullish option investors than stock investors.
MU opened very low, but gained back some of it's value during the day. In the process of the day, my Sell Order to create a Covered Call on MU was executed, netting me $9.40. Even though the option gained value as MU regained some of it's stock value, because the stock did not close in a bullish direction, I am not yet concerned about my decision. Even if it really does go up from here, I would be more than happy to see it get executed at $8.00 since it will then net me $47.
Here is a fulfillment of a short term prophecy. In my last post I said I had concerns about SLV pulling back and today SLV did a really hard pull back. It opened at $17.62, only 12 cents from the estimate I made in my last post. I was expecting a more gradual move. From the open it regained a lot of it's value, but only to slip back and close at $17.95. This gets recorded as a bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow on a bearish day. With such a hard pull back, my first instinct is that it may do one of two things; continue to dance at these levels, or pull back even further to $17.25. However, there seems to be a better than 50% probability that this is a bounce. The true determination is the candlestick of the next trading day. I'll have to let you know what I think come Monday's close.
In my last post I mentioned two paper trades and one official trade. Neither of the paper trades were successful as the underlying stock never gained enough value. I will continue to monitor them. My official Stop-Limit Order to purchase CPLP also did not execute. Because my Stop-Limit Order to buy was under the obnoxiously high Asking price it was rejected, as expected. As of the close of today, the Asking price has come down to a level I am willing to work with. For that reason I have resubmitted my Stop-Limit Order with the Stop at the asking price. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CVX opened much lower to an old trend line and then climbed back to close just over $78. In comparison to yesterdays close this is recorded as a loosing day. As a result my Call Option on it also lost value.
FPL opened lower, and closed even lower, but remained above the current trend line it has been operating against. There was, however, some unusual behavior. My Call Option on it gained value. This can only be attributed to there being more bullish option investors than stock investors.
MU opened very low, but gained back some of it's value during the day. In the process of the day, my Sell Order to create a Covered Call on MU was executed, netting me $9.40. Even though the option gained value as MU regained some of it's stock value, because the stock did not close in a bullish direction, I am not yet concerned about my decision. Even if it really does go up from here, I would be more than happy to see it get executed at $8.00 since it will then net me $47.
Here is a fulfillment of a short term prophecy. In my last post I said I had concerns about SLV pulling back and today SLV did a really hard pull back. It opened at $17.62, only 12 cents from the estimate I made in my last post. I was expecting a more gradual move. From the open it regained a lot of it's value, but only to slip back and close at $17.95. This gets recorded as a bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow on a bearish day. With such a hard pull back, my first instinct is that it may do one of two things; continue to dance at these levels, or pull back even further to $17.25. However, there seems to be a better than 50% probability that this is a bounce. The true determination is the candlestick of the next trading day. I'll have to let you know what I think come Monday's close.
In my last post I mentioned two paper trades and one official trade. Neither of the paper trades were successful as the underlying stock never gained enough value. I will continue to monitor them. My official Stop-Limit Order to purchase CPLP also did not execute. Because my Stop-Limit Order to buy was under the obnoxiously high Asking price it was rejected, as expected. As of the close of today, the Asking price has come down to a level I am willing to work with. For that reason I have resubmitted my Stop-Limit Order with the Stop at the asking price. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Portfolio Update
The day before thanks giving was a baby bull of a day. The majority of the indices took a small step forward, with only the Small Cap index taking a step back. Also being two days before Black Friday, a lot of the gainers were in the retail sector. This is probably because a speculators were taking positions in expectation of consumers finally loosening the purse strings so that they can reap the benefits.
So how did I do? Well, things are getting better. All but MU went up, and I am considering which Call Option to sell against it. But I'll get to that later.
As CVX has gone up, my Call Option on it has also gone up. However, it is still not yet profitable. The volume has been light on these gains, and it closed at the resistance line of it's current upward trending channel, but investor strength seems to be increasing. It is very close to breaking through $80 which is a price it hasn't seen for months. Since this is the third and final vacation season of the year, I am maintaining my hold on the Jan10 option. But I probably won't hold on to it past the December expiration.
FPL has become a profitable Call Option for me. As I stated when I got into the position, the winter season tends to be profitable for it. If it continues like this through the December expiration, and maybe through New Years, the statistics will have prove true. Unfortunately, it still has not officially broken it's down trend. It currently sits at the resistance line, of the downward trending channel. I am waiting in expectation of it closing well above $52.40 by Friday or Monday. This will officially end the down trend and confirmed a new up trend.
My position on the Silver ETF, SLV, had a profitable day. However, I have growing concern that it will be pulling back to $17.50 before it ever moves above $19. This is based primarily on the appearance of four indicators: Bollinger Bands, Stochastic, MACD, and Volume. All four suggest that the current trading direction is loosing stem. I will keep you posted.
As mentioned above, MU is the only stock in my current portfolio that didn't make gains. However, it did remain above the trend line that it broke above the day before. Another however is that the high of the previous day now indicates new resistance for it to break above. On the same pessimistic note, the momentum indicators of Stochastic and MACD suggest negative momentum has taken hold. I am considering selling the 8.00Dec10 Call against it to pocket $9.40 now and the maximum potential gain of $47 by the December expiration. I know it isn't a lot, but I am not fond of non-dividend paying stocks. So this strategy is fine by me.
As a final note, I am going to declare my next three trades. Two option paper trades and one official stock trade. First, if S has a high greater than 3.95, I will "buy" the 3.50Feb10Call at the high of the day. Second, if PCS has a high greater than 6.66, I will "buy" the 5.00Feb10Call at the high of the day. Third, I have put in an order to buy 100 shares of CPLP, a dividend paying stock in the Water Transportation group that is beaten down. I will also be selling options against it after I officially have a position. There is, however, an issue with the order. The current Ask and Bid are extreme. In regards to buying, the Asking price is currently at an obnoxiously high price. As a result of this, my order may get rejected as soon as the market opens on Friday. Fare warning for anyone that may be following me. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
So how did I do? Well, things are getting better. All but MU went up, and I am considering which Call Option to sell against it. But I'll get to that later.
As CVX has gone up, my Call Option on it has also gone up. However, it is still not yet profitable. The volume has been light on these gains, and it closed at the resistance line of it's current upward trending channel, but investor strength seems to be increasing. It is very close to breaking through $80 which is a price it hasn't seen for months. Since this is the third and final vacation season of the year, I am maintaining my hold on the Jan10 option. But I probably won't hold on to it past the December expiration.
FPL has become a profitable Call Option for me. As I stated when I got into the position, the winter season tends to be profitable for it. If it continues like this through the December expiration, and maybe through New Years, the statistics will have prove true. Unfortunately, it still has not officially broken it's down trend. It currently sits at the resistance line, of the downward trending channel. I am waiting in expectation of it closing well above $52.40 by Friday or Monday. This will officially end the down trend and confirmed a new up trend.
My position on the Silver ETF, SLV, had a profitable day. However, I have growing concern that it will be pulling back to $17.50 before it ever moves above $19. This is based primarily on the appearance of four indicators: Bollinger Bands, Stochastic, MACD, and Volume. All four suggest that the current trading direction is loosing stem. I will keep you posted.
As mentioned above, MU is the only stock in my current portfolio that didn't make gains. However, it did remain above the trend line that it broke above the day before. Another however is that the high of the previous day now indicates new resistance for it to break above. On the same pessimistic note, the momentum indicators of Stochastic and MACD suggest negative momentum has taken hold. I am considering selling the 8.00Dec10 Call against it to pocket $9.40 now and the maximum potential gain of $47 by the December expiration. I know it isn't a lot, but I am not fond of non-dividend paying stocks. So this strategy is fine by me.
As a final note, I am going to declare my next three trades. Two option paper trades and one official stock trade. First, if S has a high greater than 3.95, I will "buy" the 3.50Feb10Call at the high of the day. Second, if PCS has a high greater than 6.66, I will "buy" the 5.00Feb10Call at the high of the day. Third, I have put in an order to buy 100 shares of CPLP, a dividend paying stock in the Water Transportation group that is beaten down. I will also be selling options against it after I officially have a position. There is, however, an issue with the order. The current Ask and Bid are extreme. In regards to buying, the Asking price is currently at an obnoxiously high price. As a result of this, my order may get rejected as soon as the market opens on Friday. Fare warning for anyone that may be following me. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Portfolio Update
The trading day was flat today, but I still saw some gains today. The suspicions and cautions I indicated yesterday seem to be coming to fruition.
CVX had a positive day, but because of market a large number of bears earlier on it dropped a fare amount. It wasn't until later in the day that the bulls charged in to bring back a gains. Unfortunately, there were not enough bulls in the options market to raise my Call Option back into the green for the day.
Although FPL had a similar trading day, it successfully closed up in the options market. This provides me with a minor gain. Also, on this trading day, FPL opened and closed above the same resistance trend line that it broke above yesterday. This is added support that it may finally be out of the down trend. There is still one more resistance trend line for it to break over. This has about 3 or 4 days to make it happen. But since Thursday is a holiday, the market will be closed. As a result, I suspect the true direction of FPL won't be identifiable until next week Tuesday.
MU put in a Doji candlestick today. These candlesticks usually suggest a change of direction. However, this has occurred after a bounce and it is short of the high of the most recent pull back. This candlestick was also put in above the most recent resistance trend line. The volume was below average and all of the indicators conflict with each other. The only thing I can do is wait for tomorrow and see if it continues to remain above the resistance.
Finally is the Silver ETF, SLV. It pulled back hard but worked it's way back up for a small loss today. The trading volume was heavier than average and the indicators suggest potential exhaustion. There are a total of 4 supporting trend lines below it. Two inclining and two horizontal. In my opinion, the lowest of the two horizontal support levels ($17.42) is the most reliable indicator of future direction. If it bounces off of that one with some volume in the next 5 to 10 days, then I think it has a good chance of going for $20+ by the end of the year.
I have a few prognostications. S, PCS, and GLD.
S and PCS both were on the same list as MU. Since getting into MU, S has done much better. It has ralllied from just under $3 to just under $4. Currently that seems to be a point of resistance for it. In it's rally it has created a bullish trend line that suggests that it could pull back to about $3.50. After that it will attack the $4 resistance level again. I will be paper trading this in the options market, as it is a non-dividen paying stock.
PCS, on the other hand, has continued to consolidate. But now it is suggesting that it may be ready for it's rally. Currently it is at $6.33 and I am not expecting it to get higher than $7.50 on it's first attempt. Because it is also a non-dividend paying stock, I will be paper trading it in the options market.
Lastly is my prognostication on the Gold EFT. It is way over bought and for way too long. It is my opinion that it will pull back some this winter. Unfortunately, when it does, it will not be by much or for very long. Assuming it pulls back in the next two weeks, I am expecting that it will only pull back as much as 7%. After that it will start to rally again. I have been hearing some unsettling things about ETFs lately, so I will just be paper trading it in the options market. At the same time I will be looking into purchasing actual gold and silver bullion.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Monday, November 23, 2009
Portfolio Update
Today was a bullish day in the market and a good day for me. All of my positions gained value and challenged resistance.
CVX opened in the middle of it's current range, much higher than Friday's trading. During the day, CVX got really close to the upper trend line. Unfortunately, it pulled back greatly to close with a long upper shadow. This suggest that borderline swing traders (day traders) who bought in on Friday took profits today. Caution should be exercised after trading days like this because volatility as a result of speculation is never a good thing.
FPL opened today a little higher than Friday's close, rallied to the most recent high put in last week and then pulled back a fair amount. This kind of trading day indicates that day traders pulled out at the end of the day for their profits. As long as the body is greater than the shadows, there is a suggestion of further gains. The negative is that it is at a very recent high and a declining trend line is above that. FPL needs to break and close above both in the near future to suggest that the down trend is over.
MU opened and closed strong today. The negative is that it still sits below the declining trend line of it's current channel. It needs to break and close above this trend line in the near future to verify a broken trend.
SLV also opened higher today, but it closed lower. The end result was a small gain of 5 cents/share. The opening and high of the day was an attack against it's most recent high, but it proved unable to crack this level. Caution needs to be exercised on it for the near future as there seems to be confirmation of an upward trend line with a pull back more likely to occur.
In general, all of the stocks I have positions on have been sitting in overbought conditions. Combined with the recent soft movement, there is a high likelihood of pull back on all of the. The questions to be answered are "when" and "how much?" Nothing in my watch lists look ready for entry yet, so I will continue to wait. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CVX opened in the middle of it's current range, much higher than Friday's trading. During the day, CVX got really close to the upper trend line. Unfortunately, it pulled back greatly to close with a long upper shadow. This suggest that borderline swing traders (day traders) who bought in on Friday took profits today. Caution should be exercised after trading days like this because volatility as a result of speculation is never a good thing.
FPL opened today a little higher than Friday's close, rallied to the most recent high put in last week and then pulled back a fair amount. This kind of trading day indicates that day traders pulled out at the end of the day for their profits. As long as the body is greater than the shadows, there is a suggestion of further gains. The negative is that it is at a very recent high and a declining trend line is above that. FPL needs to break and close above both in the near future to suggest that the down trend is over.
MU opened and closed strong today. The negative is that it still sits below the declining trend line of it's current channel. It needs to break and close above this trend line in the near future to verify a broken trend.
SLV also opened higher today, but it closed lower. The end result was a small gain of 5 cents/share. The opening and high of the day was an attack against it's most recent high, but it proved unable to crack this level. Caution needs to be exercised on it for the near future as there seems to be confirmation of an upward trend line with a pull back more likely to occur.
In general, all of the stocks I have positions on have been sitting in overbought conditions. Combined with the recent soft movement, there is a high likelihood of pull back on all of the. The questions to be answered are "when" and "how much?" Nothing in my watch lists look ready for entry yet, so I will continue to wait. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Friday, November 20, 2009
Portfolio Update
Another mediocre market day. I got stopped out on one, and rejected on another, but for okay results. The rest is a mixture of ups and downs.
CVX went down today on higher than average volume, but the trading resulted in a Doji candlestick. Doji candle sticks suggest indecision in the market, and are often followed by a change in direction. The candle stick was also put in above the revised trend line that I posted about. For this reason, I am leaving my suffering option in place, for yet another day.
FPL is the one that had the rejected order. The order was to set a stop-loss on the Call Option in the event that the stock had a bid less than yesterday's low. It apparently did, but the stop-loss on the option was apparently out of sink with the options bid and ask prices. I did, log in to see that this had happened and manually set the stop-loss. It is currently still open as FPL went up today on light volume and average price movement. The low of the day was slightly higher than the previous day's. And the candlestick pattern of the past two days are almost a Bullish Pregnant Harami. This kind of candle stick suggests the possibility of a reversal, but because the volume was lower than average, it is hard to get excited about it. The stop-loss will remain in place.
WFC fell today and as a result my stop-loss order was executed.
MU went up today but started off lower than yesterday's close and the volume was less than average. The candlestick pattern of the past two days is almost a Bullish Engulfing, but because the volume was so low, I am not going to get excited about it. The lousy Call Option I sold against it will expire worthless and free the stock for another option sail. I will report when I decide which one to sell.
SLV had a bullish day after a lower opening, but still closed below the high of the previous day. The price movement today was done on lower than average volume so there is not excitement from me.
Of the stocks I am watching, PCS is looking promising. Today, it went up on greater than average volume and is at a resistance trend line. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both pointing upward after being oversold for a long period of time. However, because it is not a dividend paying stock, I am just going to paper trade it for a Call Option, contingent that it goes above the resistance trend line that it is currently at.
Everything else is suggesting that there will be further declines for a little while longer. For that reason, I am just going to wait until next week. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CVX went down today on higher than average volume, but the trading resulted in a Doji candlestick. Doji candle sticks suggest indecision in the market, and are often followed by a change in direction. The candle stick was also put in above the revised trend line that I posted about. For this reason, I am leaving my suffering option in place, for yet another day.
FPL is the one that had the rejected order. The order was to set a stop-loss on the Call Option in the event that the stock had a bid less than yesterday's low. It apparently did, but the stop-loss on the option was apparently out of sink with the options bid and ask prices. I did, log in to see that this had happened and manually set the stop-loss. It is currently still open as FPL went up today on light volume and average price movement. The low of the day was slightly higher than the previous day's. And the candlestick pattern of the past two days are almost a Bullish Pregnant Harami. This kind of candle stick suggests the possibility of a reversal, but because the volume was lower than average, it is hard to get excited about it. The stop-loss will remain in place.
WFC fell today and as a result my stop-loss order was executed.
MU went up today but started off lower than yesterday's close and the volume was less than average. The candlestick pattern of the past two days is almost a Bullish Engulfing, but because the volume was so low, I am not going to get excited about it. The lousy Call Option I sold against it will expire worthless and free the stock for another option sail. I will report when I decide which one to sell.
SLV had a bullish day after a lower opening, but still closed below the high of the previous day. The price movement today was done on lower than average volume so there is not excitement from me.
Of the stocks I am watching, PCS is looking promising. Today, it went up on greater than average volume and is at a resistance trend line. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both pointing upward after being oversold for a long period of time. However, because it is not a dividend paying stock, I am just going to paper trade it for a Call Option, contingent that it goes above the resistance trend line that it is currently at.
Everything else is suggesting that there will be further declines for a little while longer. For that reason, I am just going to wait until next week. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Portfolio Update: Revision
After looking over the charts again, I am revision my wait-and-see decisions on my current naked options.
CVX may actually have a wider channel than I initially charted. For this reason, my wait-and-see decision is still in effect, but a little lower. I want to see if it bounces. FPL, however, looks even less promising. I will be setting a contingency order on it. If it drops below the low of today, I am out. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CVX may actually have a wider channel than I initially charted. For this reason, my wait-and-see decision is still in effect, but a little lower. I want to see if it bounces. FPL, however, looks even less promising. I will be setting a contingency order on it. If it drops below the low of today, I am out. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Portfolio Update
What a day in the market. From the opening bell there was a solid pull back with a retracing in the afternoon. Unfortunately this retracing did not become bullish for the majority of the market.
This movement created a bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow because the bulls "woke up" late. Sometimes this indicates a rally the next day. However, because this did not occur during oversold conditions, there is little evidence that this possible rally has any chance of long term success. It it more likely that this is the top for this leg of the trend. I would expect the next week, or two, to be generally bearish.
As for my portfolio, everything went down, but my SLV ETF shares bounced back later in the day. This resulted in only a small dent in the commission cost for purchasing them.
CVX fell nearly to the bottom trend line for it's current channel. This creates a nearly 30% loss for my call option. Unless it closes below this bottom trend line, I will hold it.
FPL fell also to close with a nearly 30% loss in value. In addition, it closed below the steep trend line that it had been following. This is significant enough for me to think that it's attempt at reversing may be over. However, it may just be a pull back for it, so I will be watching it tomorrow to see if I should accept the loss.
Next we have WFC. It also fell in price, but it did not drop below the trend line it has been following. Before I can decide to get out of it, I need to see it make a more obvious move or execute my stop-loss order.
Lastly we have, MU. It dropped hard with only two days before options expiration. It probably has something to do with their VP of HR selling nearly 5,000 shares today. I will probably be selling the $8DEC09 Call against it on Monday.
While writing this, I have decided that I am failing miserably in naked option trading. I seem to be getting in too soon before the turn or too late after. And when I am in at just the right time, the movement is too slow or I stay in too long or jump out too soon. For this reason, all future naked option trades will be on paper until I feel confident that I can do them better. In the mean time, I will be doing Covered Calls, preferably with dividend paying stocks. I will be sticking by my current naked option positions in the manner that I dictated above. I will probably have a decision on them after tomorrow.
Because of my failure with naked options trading, I am now too low on capital to make any good Covered Call plays. So against my preference to try to dig my way out with the existing capital, I have transferred another G into my account. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
This movement created a bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow because the bulls "woke up" late. Sometimes this indicates a rally the next day. However, because this did not occur during oversold conditions, there is little evidence that this possible rally has any chance of long term success. It it more likely that this is the top for this leg of the trend. I would expect the next week, or two, to be generally bearish.
As for my portfolio, everything went down, but my SLV ETF shares bounced back later in the day. This resulted in only a small dent in the commission cost for purchasing them.
CVX fell nearly to the bottom trend line for it's current channel. This creates a nearly 30% loss for my call option. Unless it closes below this bottom trend line, I will hold it.
FPL fell also to close with a nearly 30% loss in value. In addition, it closed below the steep trend line that it had been following. This is significant enough for me to think that it's attempt at reversing may be over. However, it may just be a pull back for it, so I will be watching it tomorrow to see if I should accept the loss.
Next we have WFC. It also fell in price, but it did not drop below the trend line it has been following. Before I can decide to get out of it, I need to see it make a more obvious move or execute my stop-loss order.
Lastly we have, MU. It dropped hard with only two days before options expiration. It probably has something to do with their VP of HR selling nearly 5,000 shares today. I will probably be selling the $8DEC09 Call against it on Monday.
While writing this, I have decided that I am failing miserably in naked option trading. I seem to be getting in too soon before the turn or too late after. And when I am in at just the right time, the movement is too slow or I stay in too long or jump out too soon. For this reason, all future naked option trades will be on paper until I feel confident that I can do them better. In the mean time, I will be doing Covered Calls, preferably with dividend paying stocks. I will be sticking by my current naked option positions in the manner that I dictated above. I will probably have a decision on them after tomorrow.
Because of my failure with naked options trading, I am now too low on capital to make any good Covered Call plays. So against my preference to try to dig my way out with the existing capital, I have transferred another G into my account. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Portfolio Update
It is late after another mediocre day in the market. There isn't a whole lot to say, so I will keep it short.
First of all, because it was such a slow day today in the market, I logged on to my brokerage account and bought twenty shares of the ETF, SLV. I am pretty much convinced that if we do have a successful green economy, that Silver is the way to go. But since I don't have a vault at this time. I am going to buy and hold the ETF, which is based on the actual price of the hard asset.
Second, my Call Options on CVX and FPL didn't do well today. Both CVX and FPL went up in price, but it was so small of a move that my Call Options on them were still affected by time decay, and closed with a small loss each. On the other hand, my stock position on MU also slipped in price today, I am very confident that the chance of being called on me is slim. I guess I will be holding onto the stock another month and selling another call against it.
The good news I have on my current positions is that my Call on WFC made value as the stock broke through a resistance trend line and closed above it. With plenty of potential available in the stock, there is a good chance I could benefit from it.
I am still watching the stocks under $10 that I mentioned about a week ago. They are getting primed for investing, so I might just have to transfer some cash into my account. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
First of all, because it was such a slow day today in the market, I logged on to my brokerage account and bought twenty shares of the ETF, SLV. I am pretty much convinced that if we do have a successful green economy, that Silver is the way to go. But since I don't have a vault at this time. I am going to buy and hold the ETF, which is based on the actual price of the hard asset.
Second, my Call Options on CVX and FPL didn't do well today. Both CVX and FPL went up in price, but it was so small of a move that my Call Options on them were still affected by time decay, and closed with a small loss each. On the other hand, my stock position on MU also slipped in price today, I am very confident that the chance of being called on me is slim. I guess I will be holding onto the stock another month and selling another call against it.
The good news I have on my current positions is that my Call on WFC made value as the stock broke through a resistance trend line and closed above it. With plenty of potential available in the stock, there is a good chance I could benefit from it.
I am still watching the stocks under $10 that I mentioned about a week ago. They are getting primed for investing, so I might just have to transfer some cash into my account. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Portfolio Update
Today was a lack-luster day in the market. The indices were practically unchanged all day, and the majority ended with fractional gains. My own portfolio was also less than stellar.
Both CVX and MU ended the day with small gains which resulted with my position in CVX being in the green and MU increasing it's unrealized gains. The Call Option I sold on MU remains dirt increased it's asking price, but still remains dirt cheap.
Although WFC closed up today my Call Option on it didn't see any upside action and actually closed down fractionally, but not enough to trigger my stop-loss order. The stock is still being squeezed between converging trend lines and directional decision should be coming up soon. The indicators say that it should be to the upside. We will see.
On the other hand FPL slipped in price in both the stock and option market. The good news is that it closed above support, so I am not going to pull the plug on it just yet. The indicators also suggest upside potential. So I will continue to wait and see.
Finally, USO started the day weaker than it finished it yesterday. As a result, I was stopped out of the position for a 30% loss. The ETF still closed within the downward trending channel and it's upward movement was on less than average volume, contrary to the more than average volume of the previous day. For this reason my prognostication is still against it. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Both CVX and MU ended the day with small gains which resulted with my position in CVX being in the green and MU increasing it's unrealized gains. The Call Option I sold on MU remains dirt increased it's asking price, but still remains dirt cheap.
Although WFC closed up today my Call Option on it didn't see any upside action and actually closed down fractionally, but not enough to trigger my stop-loss order. The stock is still being squeezed between converging trend lines and directional decision should be coming up soon. The indicators say that it should be to the upside. We will see.
On the other hand FPL slipped in price in both the stock and option market. The good news is that it closed above support, so I am not going to pull the plug on it just yet. The indicators also suggest upside potential. So I will continue to wait and see.
Finally, USO started the day weaker than it finished it yesterday. As a result, I was stopped out of the position for a 30% loss. The ETF still closed within the downward trending channel and it's upward movement was on less than average volume, contrary to the more than average volume of the previous day. For this reason my prognostication is still against it. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Monday, November 16, 2009
Portfolio Update: Pissed Off That I Am So Impatient.
So what do we have here? A rally in the markets for over a percent, again. And what does that mean? That I screwed up again. Getting out of good positions too early. Err!
Of my late October positions, I am still in 4 of them. Unfortunately, they are all currently in the red. The only one that I got out of, an SLV Call, was profitable at the time. Get this. If I had stayed in it, I currently would be up over 66%, not including commissions. Again, err!
What good news I do have is that I am not suffering nearly as much as I was before. Also, I am have a little more reason to get out of, or stay in, certain positions. Let me go over those reasons.
CVX is oscillating in an upward trending channel. The slop is not that great, but the good news is that I could buy another position at the bottom of the channel and dollar cost average my position. If the numbers work out, I might just do that. The big question is do I have enough capital to pull it off?
Prior to this month, while traveling in it's current channel, FPL would travel down and then sideways, as a contrary move, and then down again. Since the beginning of November, it has been traveling more up than sideways or down. This is good news as it could be suggesting that the change in direction is occurring and I should start profiting from my patience with it. In fact, it actually has unrealized gains. Now, I just need it to break the resistance trend line of the channel. That is a buck away.
Another of the bad positions I got into was WFC. Yesterday, I mentioned that I was putting a stop-loss order on it, and today it avoided execution by gaining value. Unfortunately, it is still down quite a bit and has a downward trend line to break through. My stop-loss order on it was GTC, or good-till-canceled, so I am going to leave it in case it doesn't continue to go up.
My last bad position to get into is USO. Yesterday, I also mentioned that I was putting a stop-loss order on it, and today it also avoided execution by gaining value. But I am not going to be as patient with it as I am with WFC because it is in a downward trending channel. Although this kind of trend tends to explode upward at some point in the future, there is no certainty on it. It is better to wait until after it explodes upwards before getting in. For that reason I tightened the stop-loss order I have on it. If it doesn't continue to gain value and break this bearish trend I will be cutting my losses.
Now for my Covered Call on MU. It is back to break even. It's movement today has broken it above a resistance line it formed a few days ago, and it closed above it. This is usually an indication of further upward potential. That being said, I have the opinion that it should be able to continue upward. It just needs to break above it's 50 day moving average with some conviction to confirm my opinion. That is only 20 cents away, which is within it's current ATR. So if tomorrow is another bullish day, there is a good chance that it will. I will just have to wait and see. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Of my late October positions, I am still in 4 of them. Unfortunately, they are all currently in the red. The only one that I got out of, an SLV Call, was profitable at the time. Get this. If I had stayed in it, I currently would be up over 66%, not including commissions. Again, err!
What good news I do have is that I am not suffering nearly as much as I was before. Also, I am have a little more reason to get out of, or stay in, certain positions. Let me go over those reasons.
CVX is oscillating in an upward trending channel. The slop is not that great, but the good news is that I could buy another position at the bottom of the channel and dollar cost average my position. If the numbers work out, I might just do that. The big question is do I have enough capital to pull it off?
Prior to this month, while traveling in it's current channel, FPL would travel down and then sideways, as a contrary move, and then down again. Since the beginning of November, it has been traveling more up than sideways or down. This is good news as it could be suggesting that the change in direction is occurring and I should start profiting from my patience with it. In fact, it actually has unrealized gains. Now, I just need it to break the resistance trend line of the channel. That is a buck away.
Another of the bad positions I got into was WFC. Yesterday, I mentioned that I was putting a stop-loss order on it, and today it avoided execution by gaining value. Unfortunately, it is still down quite a bit and has a downward trend line to break through. My stop-loss order on it was GTC, or good-till-canceled, so I am going to leave it in case it doesn't continue to go up.
My last bad position to get into is USO. Yesterday, I also mentioned that I was putting a stop-loss order on it, and today it also avoided execution by gaining value. But I am not going to be as patient with it as I am with WFC because it is in a downward trending channel. Although this kind of trend tends to explode upward at some point in the future, there is no certainty on it. It is better to wait until after it explodes upwards before getting in. For that reason I tightened the stop-loss order I have on it. If it doesn't continue to gain value and break this bearish trend I will be cutting my losses.
Now for my Covered Call on MU. It is back to break even. It's movement today has broken it above a resistance line it formed a few days ago, and it closed above it. This is usually an indication of further upward potential. That being said, I have the opinion that it should be able to continue upward. It just needs to break above it's 50 day moving average with some conviction to confirm my opinion. That is only 20 cents away, which is within it's current ATR. So if tomorrow is another bullish day, there is a good chance that it will. I will just have to wait and see. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Portfolio Update
I didn't get a chance to report before now, so I will keep it short and to the point.
I was able to cash out for profit on my SLV Call, sadly it was at the opening of the day that ended bullish. But since the volume was light, I am not expecting Friday to be an indication of reversal. Unfortunately, I can't report well about my USO Call position. Due to the way in which I put in my order, the value dropped further without executing my order. So I have resubmitted the order for Monday at yet further loss of value.
My positions on CVX and FPL both did okay, but nothing substantial. My position on WFC suffered, and may continue to suffer. I think I may have to cut my losses on this one. For this reason I am setting up a stop-limit order for it. As for my Covered Call on MU, the stock still sits at $7.51 with $1.49 until the strike price. Unless it does 5 days of consistent ATR movement to the upside, there is little chance I will be Called on it. I was hoping that I would be. I could use the capital gains. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
I was able to cash out for profit on my SLV Call, sadly it was at the opening of the day that ended bullish. But since the volume was light, I am not expecting Friday to be an indication of reversal. Unfortunately, I can't report well about my USO Call position. Due to the way in which I put in my order, the value dropped further without executing my order. So I have resubmitted the order for Monday at yet further loss of value.
My positions on CVX and FPL both did okay, but nothing substantial. My position on WFC suffered, and may continue to suffer. I think I may have to cut my losses on this one. For this reason I am setting up a stop-limit order for it. As for my Covered Call on MU, the stock still sits at $7.51 with $1.49 until the strike price. Unless it does 5 days of consistent ATR movement to the upside, there is little chance I will be Called on it. I was hoping that I would be. I could use the capital gains. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Friday, November 13, 2009
Portfolio Update: Picks and Plans
Thursday was another bear of a day. The market declined in every sector I have on my indices watch list. That is odd since I have contrarian indices on it.
As far as my personal positions, everything suffered except my MU Covered Call. If things continue to get better for it, I might get called out on it at $9 as desired. But it would have to get exponentially better, and this market looks more like there will be a pull back for it to about $6.75 or $7, at least.
In related news, since this market looks like it is pulling back for everything I am going to try to collect what is left of my SLV call profit. After it pulls back, I may purchase the Call for the next month out from my current Call if I don't invest somewhere else.
Stock's I am currently watching are: CPLP(21.4%), ETP(8.3%), EVEP(11.9%), and TNK(18.8%). I am watching them for actual stock purchase as they are dividend paying stocks as indicated by the last percentages recorded by Yahoo! Finance. I am particularly interested in CPLP. For one reason, it is at a price I can buy an option contract worth of. A second reason is that it's chart shows a pattern of channeling sideways before strong rallies. I intend to be in the day after it closes above it's current channel on a higher than average volume day. I am expecting it to be a good few weeks before earnings are reported and the next dividend payout occurs.
But in order to fund a contractible transaction, I will need to cut some losses or else transfer some fresh capital into my trading account. I want to avoid throwing more good money at any more bad choices, so here is my plan for cutting my losses.
USO is currently sitting on support after declining on higher than average volume, though not extraordinary. My indicators suggest that it will fall below support. In addition, news reports on this past trading day seem to indicate that oil ETFs may not be legitimate. I am going to cut and run.
As far as my Call positions on FPL and WFC, neither of them had strong volume declines this past trading day. They are also on upward trends. If they break their trends tomorrow, I will cash out.
Lastly, CVX turned down on light volume, and remains above the upward trending support. On the other hand, the prior trading day had a new high that, in relation to the previous highs and lows of the past couple weeks, suggest that there is a upward trending channel. However, the slope of this channel may be too shallow for my option play. I will give it another day or two to confirm. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
As far as my personal positions, everything suffered except my MU Covered Call. If things continue to get better for it, I might get called out on it at $9 as desired. But it would have to get exponentially better, and this market looks more like there will be a pull back for it to about $6.75 or $7, at least.
In related news, since this market looks like it is pulling back for everything I am going to try to collect what is left of my SLV call profit. After it pulls back, I may purchase the Call for the next month out from my current Call if I don't invest somewhere else.
Stock's I am currently watching are: CPLP(21.4%), ETP(8.3%), EVEP(11.9%), and TNK(18.8%). I am watching them for actual stock purchase as they are dividend paying stocks as indicated by the last percentages recorded by Yahoo! Finance. I am particularly interested in CPLP. For one reason, it is at a price I can buy an option contract worth of. A second reason is that it's chart shows a pattern of channeling sideways before strong rallies. I intend to be in the day after it closes above it's current channel on a higher than average volume day. I am expecting it to be a good few weeks before earnings are reported and the next dividend payout occurs.
But in order to fund a contractible transaction, I will need to cut some losses or else transfer some fresh capital into my trading account. I want to avoid throwing more good money at any more bad choices, so here is my plan for cutting my losses.
USO is currently sitting on support after declining on higher than average volume, though not extraordinary. My indicators suggest that it will fall below support. In addition, news reports on this past trading day seem to indicate that oil ETFs may not be legitimate. I am going to cut and run.
As far as my Call positions on FPL and WFC, neither of them had strong volume declines this past trading day. They are also on upward trends. If they break their trends tomorrow, I will cash out.
Lastly, CVX turned down on light volume, and remains above the upward trending support. On the other hand, the prior trading day had a new high that, in relation to the previous highs and lows of the past couple weeks, suggest that there is a upward trending channel. However, the slope of this channel may be too shallow for my option play. I will give it another day or two to confirm. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Portfolio Update: Another Lesson Learned
The past two trading day's since my last post were not that great. For starters, the first trading day since my last post was a slightly down day, and all of my position's suffered. This includes my CVX Call position, since it started that day lower and only slightly made it above the previous day's open. In addition, on that down day, my Covered Call on MU was executed. However, the order didn't execute as expected. Today, the second day, was only a slightly up day. This day returned some of my losses from the previous day's declines.
Now in this post I am only going to discuss my Covered Call order as my other positions are nothing new. I was hoping for a Bull day, but was disappointed as MU opened slightly higher and then rallied for 20 plus cents after a short slide, just to give it all back before noon. And then for the rest of the day it just sat at that level.
First thing in the morning, my order was executed and filled at the openings initial high prior to it's early morning slide. The more disappointing thing about the opening purchase was that the Call side of the order wasn't sold at the 5 cents per contract share I expected. It actually filled at 1 cent. This gives me $1 per contract. The sad thing is that the sum of the option's commission and fees is the same total. This means that the I was not able to off set the cost of the commission on the Stock side of the order. Lesson learned, wait for the option to have some value before selling it. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Now in this post I am only going to discuss my Covered Call order as my other positions are nothing new. I was hoping for a Bull day, but was disappointed as MU opened slightly higher and then rallied for 20 plus cents after a short slide, just to give it all back before noon. And then for the rest of the day it just sat at that level.
First thing in the morning, my order was executed and filled at the openings initial high prior to it's early morning slide. The more disappointing thing about the opening purchase was that the Call side of the order wasn't sold at the 5 cents per contract share I expected. It actually filled at 1 cent. This gives me $1 per contract. The sad thing is that the sum of the option's commission and fees is the same total. This means that the I was not able to off set the cost of the commission on the Stock side of the order. Lesson learned, wait for the option to have some value before selling it. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Monday, November 9, 2009
How The Economy Could Have Been Fixed, Already.
I have been mulling this over in my head for some time and have finally decided to write it out. Everything I read and hear tells me the same thing. What has been done so far to "fix" the economy is only a temporary band-aid, nothing is actually fixed.
For one, jobs are still hard to come by. We also have a large number of foreclosures, and home prices falling. Banks are still being unreasonably stingy with loaning money under traditional arrangements. The bailed-out banks are being allowed to falsify their accounts to make themselves seem like they are making money when they are not. And the number of infrastructure projects being completed is far and in between.
Generally speaking, government has been getting involved in the wrong way in just about everything. Government's job in the economy is to set policy and regulations to protect the American public from being taken advantage of through the making of stupid, uninformed decisions. But instead of doing that, government removed policy and regulations and now things the solution is to print money and give it to the same institutions that were involved in creating the crisis. This is practically the definition of insanity.
Then we have the desire to provide universal health care. As usual, there is a misunderstanding of what universal heath care should include. Not to mention a delusional idea about how much it is going to cost and how far it should reach. In this post, I will cover the general outline of what should have been done from start to finish. Understand those words. General outline.
To start, the bail-out money should never have been given out so quickly and with so few restrictions and conditions. First, I personally would have re-instituted all of the banking and lending regulations that were dropped bank in the Clinton administration and instituted a temporary freeze, a moratorium, on all foreclosures and non-traditional mortgage origination for any bank or lender claiming to need assistance. In the mean time, the home owners would still be responsible for getting payed up either through selling their home, modifying their loan, or catching up on payments. It would be essentially creating some breathing room. Hm, did I just save people from loosing their homes? I guess I did. How long? Not very, but at least they are going to have the opportunity to figure out a solution in the mean time. Oh yeah, I also fixed the hemorrhage that started the mess.
Next would be to put together a department of accountants and economists to do an actual audit of the banks to determine what their fiscal health is and what investment instruments budgetary items they have been burning money on. After all, would the IRS allow a tax payer to do their own audit? Seriously!?! Hm, did I just create a few government jobs there? I guess I did. How many? I don't know, a few hundred or thousand for a few months? Anyway, moving on.
After the health of the bank has been determined, the department would design a custom plan to correct each banks fiscal ailments. The plan would contain a number of options including budget cuts, asset liquidation, and salary re-negotiations. At this point, I would also institute a regulation the demands that executive pay be tied to performance. Now the entire plan wouldn't be forced on the bank. But, if they want bail-out assistance, then they should be willing to comply with enough to be deserving of assistance. Other wise, you must not really be "too big to fail." And, yes, I know this will probably cost jobs. But at least it will be a step in the right direction.
Next, would be to something that I thought was suppose to have been done but have yet to find. Please, point it out to me if you know where it is. There should be a government website that lists all the infrastructure projects and pet projects that the Congressmen and Senators want to get done. This website would provide all the necessary information related to the project that contractors would be able to analyze in order to bid on so that they can be selected to do the project. In each of the projects, the key to obtaining and holding on to the contract would be the number of jobs the contractor would be able to create. These jobs would have to be filled by citizens and documented aliens.
In order to guarantee that this key point was fulfilled, the government would have a department of rotating document verification clerks that would go around to each of the contract companies and verify the citizenship and residency documentation for each employee. Hm, how many jobs created there? Thousands? Hundreds of thousands? But what about the border countries that have immigration issues? Wouldn't the majority of the possible workers be disqualified? This sounds like a perfect opportunity for a citizenship amnesty drive. Get these individual documented and put to work.
This could also be used as a means to guarantee the flow of money from the government bail-out to the banks into the economy. As the banks are being supplied enough money to make them solvent, the winning contractors would be contractually obligated to open a line of credit with one of the bailed-out banks for the purpose of equipment, supplies and wages. To confirm this is done properly, the Government would also have a department of rotating clerks to reconcile the contractors books with the line of credit to make sure it is only being used for such items. Wow, I just keep creating more jobs!
Now, on to universal health care. What should it include? Well for starters, it is not the government's job to baby sit each citizen. It is the government's job to protect the health of the general population. To me, the things that should be universal are vaccinations, triage, emergency care, and annual physicals. Anything past that should be covered by an individuals own insurance. Doing so forces a person to understand that they are responsible for their own well being. But, in order for a person to be able to do that, the government does need to put some regulations in place for the insurance industry.
For one, a citizen should never be denied coverage for any preexisting condition, especially one that is genetic. Other than that, I am quite clueless. However, a panel of doctors, economists, accountants, and statisticians should be able to figure out the most reasonable guidelines for determining insurance coverage. Wow, even more jobs created! I'm on a roll. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
For one, jobs are still hard to come by. We also have a large number of foreclosures, and home prices falling. Banks are still being unreasonably stingy with loaning money under traditional arrangements. The bailed-out banks are being allowed to falsify their accounts to make themselves seem like they are making money when they are not. And the number of infrastructure projects being completed is far and in between.
Generally speaking, government has been getting involved in the wrong way in just about everything. Government's job in the economy is to set policy and regulations to protect the American public from being taken advantage of through the making of stupid, uninformed decisions. But instead of doing that, government removed policy and regulations and now things the solution is to print money and give it to the same institutions that were involved in creating the crisis. This is practically the definition of insanity.
Then we have the desire to provide universal health care. As usual, there is a misunderstanding of what universal heath care should include. Not to mention a delusional idea about how much it is going to cost and how far it should reach. In this post, I will cover the general outline of what should have been done from start to finish. Understand those words. General outline.
To start, the bail-out money should never have been given out so quickly and with so few restrictions and conditions. First, I personally would have re-instituted all of the banking and lending regulations that were dropped bank in the Clinton administration and instituted a temporary freeze, a moratorium, on all foreclosures and non-traditional mortgage origination for any bank or lender claiming to need assistance. In the mean time, the home owners would still be responsible for getting payed up either through selling their home, modifying their loan, or catching up on payments. It would be essentially creating some breathing room. Hm, did I just save people from loosing their homes? I guess I did. How long? Not very, but at least they are going to have the opportunity to figure out a solution in the mean time. Oh yeah, I also fixed the hemorrhage that started the mess.
Next would be to put together a department of accountants and economists to do an actual audit of the banks to determine what their fiscal health is and what investment instruments budgetary items they have been burning money on. After all, would the IRS allow a tax payer to do their own audit? Seriously!?! Hm, did I just create a few government jobs there? I guess I did. How many? I don't know, a few hundred or thousand for a few months? Anyway, moving on.
After the health of the bank has been determined, the department would design a custom plan to correct each banks fiscal ailments. The plan would contain a number of options including budget cuts, asset liquidation, and salary re-negotiations. At this point, I would also institute a regulation the demands that executive pay be tied to performance. Now the entire plan wouldn't be forced on the bank. But, if they want bail-out assistance, then they should be willing to comply with enough to be deserving of assistance. Other wise, you must not really be "too big to fail." And, yes, I know this will probably cost jobs. But at least it will be a step in the right direction.
Next, would be to something that I thought was suppose to have been done but have yet to find. Please, point it out to me if you know where it is. There should be a government website that lists all the infrastructure projects and pet projects that the Congressmen and Senators want to get done. This website would provide all the necessary information related to the project that contractors would be able to analyze in order to bid on so that they can be selected to do the project. In each of the projects, the key to obtaining and holding on to the contract would be the number of jobs the contractor would be able to create. These jobs would have to be filled by citizens and documented aliens.
In order to guarantee that this key point was fulfilled, the government would have a department of rotating document verification clerks that would go around to each of the contract companies and verify the citizenship and residency documentation for each employee. Hm, how many jobs created there? Thousands? Hundreds of thousands? But what about the border countries that have immigration issues? Wouldn't the majority of the possible workers be disqualified? This sounds like a perfect opportunity for a citizenship amnesty drive. Get these individual documented and put to work.
This could also be used as a means to guarantee the flow of money from the government bail-out to the banks into the economy. As the banks are being supplied enough money to make them solvent, the winning contractors would be contractually obligated to open a line of credit with one of the bailed-out banks for the purpose of equipment, supplies and wages. To confirm this is done properly, the Government would also have a department of rotating clerks to reconcile the contractors books with the line of credit to make sure it is only being used for such items. Wow, I just keep creating more jobs!
Now, on to universal health care. What should it include? Well for starters, it is not the government's job to baby sit each citizen. It is the government's job to protect the health of the general population. To me, the things that should be universal are vaccinations, triage, emergency care, and annual physicals. Anything past that should be covered by an individuals own insurance. Doing so forces a person to understand that they are responsible for their own well being. But, in order for a person to be able to do that, the government does need to put some regulations in place for the insurance industry.
For one, a citizen should never be denied coverage for any preexisting condition, especially one that is genetic. Other than that, I am quite clueless. However, a panel of doctors, economists, accountants, and statisticians should be able to figure out the most reasonable guidelines for determining insurance coverage. Wow, even more jobs created! I'm on a roll. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Portfolio Update
Today was a profitable day in the market. All of the major indices moved up at least a percent or two and all of my commodity ETFs I watch also moved up, although not as strongly. Currently, all but my position in CVX went up. Overall, this still leaves me in the red for this cycle of investments. But because of today's move, I have been given confirmation that some stocks I have been watching are attempting to make bull moves.
In my previous post I announced that I was watching CEPH, GNW, MU, PCS, and S. Of these, I am making a play on one of them, MU. The kind of play I am making on it is a Covered Call. This type of play involves buying at least 100 shares of a stock and then selling a Call option against it. For me, I will be buying enough shares to sell the closest $9 Call against it. I chose $9 because that was the most recent resistance point it had reached.
If you have read any of my previous posts, you might have gleaned that I have no interest in holding non-dividend paying stocks, and that is still the case. In addition, selling the $9 Call doesn't do me any huge favors. My reason for this trade is to produce a little capital on a stock that has been oversold for a couple of weeks. The sale of the Call is simply to offset the commission expenses and set an exit point for collecting profits if it runs up fast. It is possible that MU will reach and break through the resistance since it only has 11 days until expiration. It is also possible that it will stall under the resistance for some time before moving in either direction. If it does happen to close under resistance by expiration, I will either sell another Call against it or cash out. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
In my previous post I announced that I was watching CEPH, GNW, MU, PCS, and S. Of these, I am making a play on one of them, MU. The kind of play I am making on it is a Covered Call. This type of play involves buying at least 100 shares of a stock and then selling a Call option against it. For me, I will be buying enough shares to sell the closest $9 Call against it. I chose $9 because that was the most recent resistance point it had reached.
If you have read any of my previous posts, you might have gleaned that I have no interest in holding non-dividend paying stocks, and that is still the case. In addition, selling the $9 Call doesn't do me any huge favors. My reason for this trade is to produce a little capital on a stock that has been oversold for a couple of weeks. The sale of the Call is simply to offset the commission expenses and set an exit point for collecting profits if it runs up fast. It is possible that MU will reach and break through the resistance since it only has 11 days until expiration. It is also possible that it will stall under the resistance for some time before moving in either direction. If it does happen to close under resistance by expiration, I will either sell another Call against it or cash out. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Friday, November 6, 2009
Portfolio Update: Week In Review, Lessons Learned, and Personal Picks.
This week has been a roller-coaster of mistakes and bad timing for me. Starting last week, I get into five positions in varying industries, which isn't bad. AXP, CVX, FPL, WFC, and V. The problem with the positions I took was the directions I took and when I got into them.
With AXP, I got into it as a Put using the reasoning that the secondary indicators on the daily and weekly charts were overbought and had turned down on the daily. What I failed to do was read the volume. It had been better than average for two straight days. I should of stayed out.
With CVX, I also got into it as a Put using the same reasoning as AXP. The next red flag should have been that it had just broken above the resistance trend line of the inclining channel it had been in. Before getting into it, I should have waited for it to drop back below it. Realizing this mistake, 3 days later I swap my Put for a Call. Unfortunately, on that day it bounced down from a horizontal price resistance level of about $78.50 ending near the inclining trend line and has since then been riding along the inclining trend line it had just broken above. Now I have a Call losing value due to time decay as it continues to get squeezed by converging trend lines. I am patiently waiting to see which one it breaks out from before recouping what I have left. The good news is that I have until January to see what happens and the lines seem to converge after Thanksgiving.
With FPL, I got into it as a Call but this decision was passed on the secondary indicators on the daily and weekly charts being oversold. Without any proof from price movement or volume I jump in. It has since then continued to slide in price and I continue to hold it with apparent foolish hope that it will finally bounce since it is in the range of it's 52 week low and it tends to rally strong during the winter.
With WFC, I got into it as a Put. This was actually the right decision as it is was in a down trend at the time, the secondary indicators on both the daily and weekly charts indicated overbought and declining, and the strongest volume day in the past week was negative. The problem was that two days later I see a bullish candlestick on a very up day, and the MACD on the daily chart reacts to it. I assume that I got it at the bottom and that it is reversing already. I totally failed to acknowledge the lack of volume. To make matters worse, instead of waiting for confirmation, I swap my Put for a Call instead of just cashing out. If I had just waited, I would be up $69. However, I have been losing value on my Call because it is near a support level it has bounced off of three times before, and since I have until January on it, I am hoping it will bounce off of there and will travel back up to or past $30.
With V, I also got into it as a Put for similar reasons for getting into AXP and CVX. The problem here was that I failed to consider it's earnings report came out the same day of the trade. If I had remembered to do that, I would have known to wait and see. Now I have been stopped out of that position as it hit and exceeded it's most recent high. Of all my stocks to swap Puts for calls, I don't with this one. And now, it is up $2.50. I would have been up 50-100% just this week alone with $80 and $85 being the next resistance levels. Just plain stupid on my part.
In addition to the swaps of the above trading activity, I also got into SLV and USO as Calls. My reasoning being that SLV had just bounced off of a support level it bounced off of before, and USO had just been on an up trend and pulled back to a bounced off of a resistance level it had just broken through. ("Old resistance becomes new support.") The good news is that SLV has done well by me. It has rallied up over a dollar on strong volume and is holding there on weak volume. The bad news is that USO has been bouncing off of it's support level ever since. In addition it has dropped below an inclining trend line today. This action was on slightly stronger than average volume and leads me to believe that next week it will open and close below the horizontal support level I just mentioned. If it does so, I will be closing my position on it. If it doesn't, I will adjust the inclining trend line.
Things to remember:
- Pay attention to price movement AND volume more than secondary indicators.
- Check for earnings reports.
- Trade only after confirmation. (More than one period against the trend.)
Currently I am watching CEPH, GNW, MU, PCS, and S. These stocks were reported to be fundamentally ready to rally. I am not so certain about that after my experience with FPL. As of today, only CEPH and MU have broken their apparent downward trends with confirmation. However, CEPH has a resistance level at $60 that isn't too far away and another at $62.50 I will probably wait do see if it breaks out over $60 before getting in since it doesn't have earnings to report until February 2010. MU is currently short of it's next resistance level of $7.50. I want to see another confirmation day before I get in. Then from there it is $9. The uneasy thing is that it has earnings to report after the December 2009 options expiration. I should probably be out of it by then, so I don't really have a lot of time. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Portfolio Update In Short.
Today, I had a little of everything. My Put on AXP stopped out as expected. The underlying stock of CVX, FPL, and WFC all gained a little ground today, but only my WFC Call gained value. Intraday trading left my CVX and FPL positions a little in the red because their closing values ended up but far from their intraday highs. And, as for my commodity Calls on SLV and USO, they pulled back some so that only my Call in SLV is in the green.
CVX continues to ride an inclining trend line. FPL still closed above yesterday's high, however, it put in a doji star which isn't a promising candlestick. The good news is that the asking price is over $2 from today's closing indicating that the move may not be over. WFC produced a candlestick with a long lower shadow but a Bullish body indicating that demand could be more powerful. In relation to yesterday the candlestick pattern is a Bullish Harami pattern, which indicates a change in direction toward the upside is likely. Both SLV and USO put in small doji like candlesticks positioned slightly lower than yesterday's closing. This may only be a pull back as the trading volume was light. So I will be staying in all of my positions for now. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
CVX continues to ride an inclining trend line. FPL still closed above yesterday's high, however, it put in a doji star which isn't a promising candlestick. The good news is that the asking price is over $2 from today's closing indicating that the move may not be over. WFC produced a candlestick with a long lower shadow but a Bullish body indicating that demand could be more powerful. In relation to yesterday the candlestick pattern is a Bullish Harami pattern, which indicates a change in direction toward the upside is likely. Both SLV and USO put in small doji like candlesticks positioned slightly lower than yesterday's closing. This may only be a pull back as the trading volume was light. So I will be staying in all of my positions for now. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Quick Portfolio Update
As of the closing bell on Wednesday, November 4, 2009, this is what my portfolio looks like. My AXP Put remains in place although it continues to lose value. I have a stop in place at about 75% of it's value that I will be leaving in place.
My CVX Call continues to ride this trend line I mentioned in my last update, so I will be leaving it as is for a few more days, or until it drops below it.
FPL had a large price movement, but it was on light volume and it gave back more than half of it's gains for the day in the final hours. This says, conviction doesn't yet seem to be there. However, winters for this stock tend to be profitable, and all indicators I watch say upward movement is to be expected. Also, since today's movement did give me back some of my losses on the Call option, I will be holding on to it and watching how it goes.
WFC has dropped a lot further than I thought it would. It is, however, reaching a support level and the daily chart indicators say an upward movement is a higher probability. However, the weekly chart indicators say that the bull may be running out of steam. If it does go up soon, this is likely the last bull run it will have.
V put in some strong price movement in today only to pull back to the opening. Unfortunately, I was stopped out of my Put position by this powerful up move of the day. V has been a difficult animal to tame. There is some suggestion that more upward movement is there, but on a week to week, the bull not as convincing.
I have lost quite a bit of money on these last few trades. My only consolation is that my Call positions on SLV and USO have been hedging against the losses. Unfortunately, both just put in doji star price movements. That isn't a favorable candlestick, and the other chart indicators are a little mixed, but suggest that near term profitability has a good chance. They are both nearing resistance points, so I will have to wait and see how strong the resistance is. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
My CVX Call continues to ride this trend line I mentioned in my last update, so I will be leaving it as is for a few more days, or until it drops below it.
FPL had a large price movement, but it was on light volume and it gave back more than half of it's gains for the day in the final hours. This says, conviction doesn't yet seem to be there. However, winters for this stock tend to be profitable, and all indicators I watch say upward movement is to be expected. Also, since today's movement did give me back some of my losses on the Call option, I will be holding on to it and watching how it goes.
WFC has dropped a lot further than I thought it would. It is, however, reaching a support level and the daily chart indicators say an upward movement is a higher probability. However, the weekly chart indicators say that the bull may be running out of steam. If it does go up soon, this is likely the last bull run it will have.
V put in some strong price movement in today only to pull back to the opening. Unfortunately, I was stopped out of my Put position by this powerful up move of the day. V has been a difficult animal to tame. There is some suggestion that more upward movement is there, but on a week to week, the bull not as convincing.
I have lost quite a bit of money on these last few trades. My only consolation is that my Call positions on SLV and USO have been hedging against the losses. Unfortunately, both just put in doji star price movements. That isn't a favorable candlestick, and the other chart indicators are a little mixed, but suggest that near term profitability has a good chance. They are both nearing resistance points, so I will have to wait and see how strong the resistance is. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Portfolio Update In Summary Format
Today was what would be called a flat day. No real movement in either direction for the majority of indices, except for the Russel 2000 that put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick. A move of over 1%. Good job small caps. Anyway, lets get to my portfolio.
Starting at the top, AXP has been maintaining a very narrow trading range for a few weeks now. Because of this, the secondary indicators I use have been smoothed out to a point where directionality is hard to predict. It may break out to the positive side. I am setting a stop on my Put 25% under where I bought it and will let it ride itself out for at least another week.
The stock, CVX closed 6 cents above yesterdays close, but this is after opening below two of my previously drawn trend lines which intersect a couple days from now. On Friday, a high volume sell off day was put in and today the secondary indicators on both daily and weekly charts are showing signs of weakness. If tomorrow the value closes below my aforementioned trend lines, I will consider closing out my position. Ideally I should consider swapping out my Call for a Put, but I have just recently done this same swap in reverse. If I wasn't uncertain about this being subject to the wash sale rule, I would do the swap. The funny thing is that if I had left things alone, I would be almost right back where I was before the swap. Is it wrong for me to start hoping for higher gas prices?
Today, FPL closed up today after almost two weeks of consistent declines. This positive move, however, is on light volume and the close was below a lower trend line in a downward channel. The good news is that it is drastically oversold in both daily and weekly charts. The bad news is that I have held on to it way longer than I should have. I am almost 40% in the whole. I should have set my stop back at 1.95 and currently it is at 1.65. I really believe there is a reversal at this point, but I am not confident about the potential. I am unsure what to do. I will wait to see what tomorrow brings.
My second financial position, WFC, opened low but closed high today. Yesterday's low could possibly be the bottom of a upward channel that I have been expecting to see it make for the past few days. The daily indicators show the possibility of a directional reversal but the weeklies still indicate more downside potential. If there is going to be a bounce, this week should reveal it, and my decision to swap my Put for a Call will start to pan out. The funny thing is that if I had chosen to stay into my Put until this week, I would be up about 15% and swapping into a call position would be, potentially, more lucrative.
My last financial position, V, closed slightly higher today, but with little movement above the upper trend line of an upward channel. Both the daily and weekly chart have indications of an overbought condition with weakening momentum. Also, there is a higher-lows trend line that is tightening on this upward channel's upper trend line, so if it closes below this trend line of higher-lows, the upward momentum could be over and I could see a price recovery of my Put as it heads toward the lower trend line of the channel. Unfortunately, it will have to recover almost 40% of the original purchase price before I see any profit. That teaches me not to see when the next earnings report is.
Now for my commodity ETF's. First is SLV which closed almost a dollar over yesterday's close, putting me into the green on this position. I am expecting to see a net move of another dollar to the upside before it reverses again. If so, I will see about 90% profit on this position.
Finally, USO closed higher after starting near a trend line of higher-lows produced about a month ago. It still has about $2 worth of price movement before it hits its highest-high of the last quarter. However, it is showing overbought on the weekly charts and barely oversold on the daily charts. Not to mention there is the slightest indication of a trend of higher highs that my prevent it from gaining more than a dollar in price in the next day or so. And to add to the negativity, there wasn't a lot of volume behind the last couple days of upward movement. Again, is it wrong for me to start hoping for higher gas prices?
As far as the general market is concerned, the daily charts look like a reversal in price direction is appropriate to expect. However, if you look at the indicators on a weekly chart, the market is overbought, so any reversal in price direction can not be expected to break through the most recent highs of the past month. Be prepared for a cold winter in the market. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Starting at the top, AXP has been maintaining a very narrow trading range for a few weeks now. Because of this, the secondary indicators I use have been smoothed out to a point where directionality is hard to predict. It may break out to the positive side. I am setting a stop on my Put 25% under where I bought it and will let it ride itself out for at least another week.
The stock, CVX closed 6 cents above yesterdays close, but this is after opening below two of my previously drawn trend lines which intersect a couple days from now. On Friday, a high volume sell off day was put in and today the secondary indicators on both daily and weekly charts are showing signs of weakness. If tomorrow the value closes below my aforementioned trend lines, I will consider closing out my position. Ideally I should consider swapping out my Call for a Put, but I have just recently done this same swap in reverse. If I wasn't uncertain about this being subject to the wash sale rule, I would do the swap. The funny thing is that if I had left things alone, I would be almost right back where I was before the swap. Is it wrong for me to start hoping for higher gas prices?
Today, FPL closed up today after almost two weeks of consistent declines. This positive move, however, is on light volume and the close was below a lower trend line in a downward channel. The good news is that it is drastically oversold in both daily and weekly charts. The bad news is that I have held on to it way longer than I should have. I am almost 40% in the whole. I should have set my stop back at 1.95 and currently it is at 1.65. I really believe there is a reversal at this point, but I am not confident about the potential. I am unsure what to do. I will wait to see what tomorrow brings.
My second financial position, WFC, opened low but closed high today. Yesterday's low could possibly be the bottom of a upward channel that I have been expecting to see it make for the past few days. The daily indicators show the possibility of a directional reversal but the weeklies still indicate more downside potential. If there is going to be a bounce, this week should reveal it, and my decision to swap my Put for a Call will start to pan out. The funny thing is that if I had chosen to stay into my Put until this week, I would be up about 15% and swapping into a call position would be, potentially, more lucrative.
My last financial position, V, closed slightly higher today, but with little movement above the upper trend line of an upward channel. Both the daily and weekly chart have indications of an overbought condition with weakening momentum. Also, there is a higher-lows trend line that is tightening on this upward channel's upper trend line, so if it closes below this trend line of higher-lows, the upward momentum could be over and I could see a price recovery of my Put as it heads toward the lower trend line of the channel. Unfortunately, it will have to recover almost 40% of the original purchase price before I see any profit. That teaches me not to see when the next earnings report is.
Now for my commodity ETF's. First is SLV which closed almost a dollar over yesterday's close, putting me into the green on this position. I am expecting to see a net move of another dollar to the upside before it reverses again. If so, I will see about 90% profit on this position.
Finally, USO closed higher after starting near a trend line of higher-lows produced about a month ago. It still has about $2 worth of price movement before it hits its highest-high of the last quarter. However, it is showing overbought on the weekly charts and barely oversold on the daily charts. Not to mention there is the slightest indication of a trend of higher highs that my prevent it from gaining more than a dollar in price in the next day or so. And to add to the negativity, there wasn't a lot of volume behind the last couple days of upward movement. Again, is it wrong for me to start hoping for higher gas prices?
As far as the general market is concerned, the daily charts look like a reversal in price direction is appropriate to expect. However, if you look at the indicators on a weekly chart, the market is overbought, so any reversal in price direction can not be expected to break through the most recent highs of the past month. Be prepared for a cold winter in the market. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
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