Portfolio Update: Flat Markets Bad For Long Options

Well, I was just stopped out of the position I BTO on Wednesday. My position of 5 QQQQ 20110122 $54.00 puts stopped out at $1.18 for a 25.7% loss. It is my belief that I gave the drop in price on Tuesday way too much credit. I really should have took into consideration that the price of QQQQ still closed higher than the previous day's close. That being understood now, I believe that it is important not get in until after there is a confirmation day, and not get in on what you think will be a confirmation day.

My forecast for QQQQ is that if it does break above $54.52, I should probably make the 'trend my friend.' That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

BTO - buy-to-open / bought-to-open
QQQQ - PowerShares QQQ Trust

Portfolio Update: In And Out, Then In Again.

Today was dissatisfying. For starters I entered into a position with an earlier expiration than I wanted to get into. Fortunately, it was relatively profitable for $7. Then once I got out of that position I got into the position I intended on entering. The position was for 5 of the QQQQ 20110122 $54.00 puts.

At first the position was profitable for what could have been about $43 net. But 5% wasn't good enough for me, so I continued to hold it for my 10% target. That didn't happen and now my position is down about 12% after taking into consideration commissions.

After analyzing the price movement of the past three days, I think there is a 60% chance that if tomorrow is a down day for QQQQ, that I could see a profit of 50% or more for my put position. The good news is that there are 2 more days left in this week. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com/

QQQQ - PowerShares QQQ Trust

Portfolio Update

Today was a profitable day, although not nearly as profitable as I would have liked. This morning I was stopped out of my position of the QQQQ 20110122 $53 puts I purchased a week ago. The profit made on this trade was only a measly 5.7%. If I had STC yesterday, after it had made more than 30% profit in one week, I could have captured at minimum of 22.7%. Live and learn I guess. Should I consider literally selling into strength, or may be tightening up my stops to more than 25% of the most recent high? That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

QQQQ - Powershares QQQ Trust ETF
STC - sell-to-close / sold-to-close

Portfolio Update

Well that was a lousy day in the market for me. I got stopped out of both my SLV and UNG option positions for a loss on both. SLV stopped out at $1.26, a little under my stop of $1.28, for a loss of about 26.9%. UNG stopped out at $0.38 for a loss of about 2.6%. Both are looking like they are pulling back. At some point in the near future, I will probably try re-entering.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

SLV - iShares Silver Trust ETF
UNG - United States Natural Gas Fund ETF

Portfolio Update

Yesterday I said I would think about a few option trades, and after careful deliberation over the list I decided to place two orders. The first was 3 AMR Nov 20 2010 $6.00 calls and the second was 3 BAC Nov 20 2010 $14.00 calls. Long-story-short, only the first one was executed. AMR decided to gap up on the open and then pull back to the highs of the previous day. The close on AMR was higher than the previous day despite pulling back from the open. As a precaution, I have my GTC stop in place at a 25% loss and will wait to see how tomorrow fares for my position.

Although I believe AMR is prepared to have a short term bullish move, I am also perceiving the possibility of a bearish move in QQQQ. Because of this prognostication, I am going to also place another order for Thursday. This order will be for 2 QQQQ Nov 20 2010 $49.00 puts at a limit of $1.58 contingent on QQQQ dropping below $48.83. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

AMR - AMR Corp.
BAC - Bank of America Corp.
GTC - good til cancelled
QQQQ - Powershares QQQ Trust ETF

Portfolio Update and Option Picks

An interesting day in my portfolio. With today's bullish performance of the indices, I was stopped out of one position, but not the one I though I would be. Instead of me being stopped out of BRKS, I was stopped out of BAC. My BAC Oct 16 2010 $15.00 put stopped out at $1.50 for a 16% lose before commissions. After the weak movement that occurred on the day I entered the position I started to suspect that this could happen. I am thinking that the trend is changing. I believe I will look into a long call position.

Other possible trades I am looking into are AMD for long puts and AMR, BRCD, and UNG for long calls. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com/

AMD - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
AMR - AMR Corp.
BAC - Bank or America Corp.
BRKS - Brooks Automation, Inc.
UNG - United States Natural Gas Fund ETF

Portfolio Update: Call Option Sold To Open

It has been a little over a week since my last post. Since then I have made a few adjustments to my stops and desired entries. My reason for posting is that one of them was triggered today. I sold-to-open a September 2010 $18 call option against my shares of the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV). The premium for that sale was about $45.40 after commission. That is a nice percentage gain Although it could have been better had I sold it a couple weeks ago instead of trying to sell the August 2010 $19 call option. The other end of this trade is that if I get called on it next month, I will also collect my capital gains on the underlying shares.

The stock EV Energy Partners, LP (EVEP) dived below the secondary trend line I mentioned in the forecast I made in my last post and is currently declining lower at a very slow pace. EVEP closed today at $33.23. I still believe it will continue to decline into the $32.50 to $30 range before turning back up.

The put option I bought-to-open against Capital Product Partners, LP (CPLP) hasn't been moving favorably for me. My current position went into the hole $20 the day after I entered it and it hasn't gone anywhere since then. The CPLP stock hasn't been moving much for the past week. It looks similar to EVEP in that it dived down below one trend line, but it seems to be dancing just above a much shallower secondary trend line that I expected it to break already. The weekly and monthly Stochastic and MACD indicators suggest that it is over-bought and should not be going back up much higher in the immediate future. However, the daily indicators are in the over-sold ranges. This suggests to me that if it doesn't break below this secondary trend line soon, CPLP will be basing at the current $8 level for about a month, eroding my position.

I haven't mentioned this position for some time, and it is about time I did. Maybe I will finally get it through my thick skull to let a looser go. It really does look like I again made a very bad move. Citigroup, Inc stock (C) hasn't been doing bad nor good for the past couple of months since it declined back in May of this year. I fully expected it to turn up a lot more a lot sooner. Unfortunately, instead of buying stock and selling call options against C, I bought 5 calls in expectation of better performance now that it has restructured itself and spinning off Primerica Inc (PRI). Oh well, wishful thinking. I am already more than 60% in the whole. My current forecast of C for the next four months until the expiration of the options is to almost break even at best. I'm so disappointed in myself. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update: Change Of Opinion

In my last post I indicated an opinion that the market may not be done pulling back. I still think this is probably true. However, as for Capital Product Partners, LP, I don't think that pull back will happen before this coming option expiration. As a result, I am in danger of having my CPLP stock shares called away from me unless I Buy to Close the option I sold against it.

Unfortunately, the value of the option is now 150% of the value that I sold it at. In order for me to buy it back I have to free up some of the capital I have reserved for purchasing 10 shares of EV Energy Partners, LP. All things considered it was not looking likely that EVEP was going to come down to my desired price.

After canceling my Buy Order on EVEP, I entered a Buy to Close order on my CPLP7.50July10 Call option. While entering it, I set it up as a One-Triggers-Other order so that I will also have a Sell to Open order against my CPLP shares at the next highest available strike price - that is the CPLP10Aug10 Call. In the current week I am expecting CPLP to get as high as $9, maybe more. Being this far out from option expiration of August should provide enough time value to get a decent premium. Also the difference between the strike price of the option and the value I purchased the stock will result in a fairly acceptable profit to off-set the loss of the last trade. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update: Call Option Sold To Open

On the last day of the week, prior to the Independence Day weekend, I sold a $7.50July2010 Call option against my stock position of Capital Product Partners, LP (CPLP). The first day after the holiday was a slightly bullish day, but the option value did not close any higher. It is still my opinion that the stock will slide before the option expires. However, if it doesn't, I will be seeing a loss in the stock of about $26 which will be balanced out by all of the dividends I've earned so far and the premium I sold the option for. Although I see some bullish potential in CPLP, I am of the opinion that the market may not be done, pulling back just yet.

My current open orders are a Buy to Close order of the CPLP Call Option I sold, as mentioned above, a Buy to Close order of the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) I have owned for a while, a Buy order of 10 more shares of EV Energy Partners, LP (EVEP) at price of $27.54 or less, and a Sell to Close order of my 5 contracts position of Citigroup Inc (C).

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update: Premium Pocketed and Exercise in Patience

The Friday just past was option expiration for May options. I mention that because the Call option I sold against my iShares Silver Trust ETF position (SLV) expired for my benefit. The result of that is the pocketing of a little cash and the retention of 100 shares of SLV. Despite last week's meltdown, I am still positive. Should I hold on to my position or sell? Good question.

That is it for the pocketed premium portion, now for the patience exercise. Both my optionable position of Capital Product Partners, LP (CPLP) and the Call option I purchased is in the negative. To hold on to the Call option was irresponsible of me, but fortunately there are 4 months until expiration. I am going to take the opinion that it will level off and reverse before the 4 months is out. I am comfortable with my decision to hold onto the stock because the dividend payout is good for the earnings they make. I am not expecting large growth from this stock.

Unfortunately, the CPLP Call option wasn't the only irresponsible move I made. I also am still holding on to a Call option for the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG). I am currently only down part of the commission cost. Fortunately, I have 5 months until expiration. I am going to continue to hold and be patient for this correction to return back up.

I am, however, going to make an adjustment to my expectations. I am going to recalculate my exits for smaller gains on these options. I am thinking somewhere around 25% plus the cost of round trip commissions. I shouldn't expect too strong of a rebound after this correction.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update, New Option Purchase, Current Positions and Opinion

On Monday, May 3rd 2010, I bought two call options on the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG). The purchase was for the the $8 strike price to expire in October of 2010. The cost to me was only $114.25. My expectation is that the ETF will make it to $9 before October and that I will be able to sell it for about twice it's value. I expect this because the technicals on UNG are reading extremely over sold with climbing momentum. There is also a long way to go, and doubt in the market, so I will need all 5 months of time to see it through.

In my last post I voiced some concern that I might have gotten into a Capital Product Partners, LP call option too soon. Currently it appears my concerns were valid. The fortunate thing is that I have a lot of time left in my call option on CPLP that I can afford to wait and see what happens. I am currently in for a $195.60 and will have until September 2010 to wait to see if the market will take a turn for the better.

According to news coverage, it is expected that this Friday will have some promising information in the Jobs Report which should suggest that the recession is finally turning around. According to the same news coverage, most of this pull back for the past few days has a lot to do with the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Additional news coverage has reported that British Petroleum (BP) is doing a responsible job of cleaning up the mess. If that is the case, and Friday is suppose to be promising, then now is the time to be investing and averaging down stock positions, so I am feeling comfortable about all that I have done to set my self up.

Currently I am collecting dividends on CPLP and EVEP (EV Energy Partners, LP). Both of them also have profit, although they have both taken a deep dip. I currently hold profit on a Brocade Communications Sys Inc call option and the underlying stock seems to only be taking a breather from it's already building momentum. I perceive that after the Jobs report all three of these will see a turn around.

One last thing is my position in the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV). Completely unexpected, it has been taking a beating. I completely expected for it to rise up and through the strike price of the Call Option I sold against it at the $19 strike price for this May 2010 expiration. Buy because of the devaluation it has received I am feeling more confident that SLV will continue to be held below the strike price and I will keep both my shares and the premium I collected on the option. We will see by the 21st of May. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update, Option Pick

I had an order in for the purchase of a Call option on Capital Product Partners, L.P. in the event that it broke above 9$. Today it did that, but only momentarily. As a result I am in the CPLP Sept10 7.50 Call option at a little more than the current asking price. I might have made a mistake getting in so early, but I believe that I bought an option with an expiration far enough out that I should see the break out to the upside in the near future and be able to profit off of that move. I believe that it should make it to 9.50 or 10$. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update

To start off this week I am selling another Call against my position in the iShares Silver Trust ETF. This Call is well out of the money at the $19 strike price, and as a result the premium after commissions is meager. There is no way for me to make money off of it by buying it back at any level. This will require that I hold it all the way through expiration.

The reason I chose the $19 strike price is simple. I have 20 shares of my position over $18. If the ETF were to close over $19 on option expiration, I would be automatically assigned the responsibility to relinquish my position, but at the same time, I profit off of all of the shares individually, not on an average. There are those that think Silver should be over $20, and I am one of them, but it has been muddling around below $19 for quite some time. I am willing to risk any additional profit by having it called away from me at $19, because I also believe that even if it does close above the strike price, it will eventually collapse back to around $17.

I would like to sell a call against Capital Product Partners, LP but it looks like it will be pulling off another one of it's breakouts again. For that reason I am preparing to purchase a Call option for a short hold. I don't have much free cash to invest, so I will be doing a lot of technical analysis in the coming weeks. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update

CPLP had a bullish day on better than average volume. The price movement saw a large dip but recovered and gained some before the close. The Stochastic and MACD indicators both gained grown. The stagnant position seems to be continuing and believe it will continue until next week.

EVEP had a bearish day on below average volume. The price movement attempted to go higher but completely collapsed creating a lower low before working it's way back up to $32.50. This is a pivotal day for the stock as the Stochastic indicator has been overbought for a while. The MACD reacted to the negative change in price by not moving up at all. I think the pull pack is occurring now or at least will be a very stagnant trend for a stretch of time.

SLV had a bearish day on below average volume. The price movement started higher but could not maintain any gains. It eventually pulled back below high of yesterday but closed a little under it. The Stochastic and MACD indicators both averaged this out into a decrease in momentum. The most likely future behavior seems to be an oscillation between $16.50 and $17.50 a share.

My paper trading saw some depreciation with partial appreciations. ISPH had a bullish day after some bearish trading through the day. I the Call options I "sold" on it are still safe for now. S was bearish and as a result the Call options I "bought" saw a decline a lot greater than expected. It is currently at a resistance level so I am not totally surprised. I will give it another trading day at least. My AUO Call option didn't depreciate any so I will give it a chance to redeem itself. My GLW Call options did depreciate a little bit more, but the chart looks suspicious. To me it looks like a potential "fake out" I want to give them another day. My GME Call option also had a bearish day but only after moving higher first, so the loss was minimal. I will be giving it another day. My LEAP Call option was again unchanged but this time as the underlying stock had a bearish day. Overall my paper trades are seeing profit, I think I am in a good position with time to watch. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update

CPLP had a bearish day on less than average volume. The price movement was small but left the Stochastic and MACD indicators practically unaffected. Nothing more to really say about it at present.

EVEP had a slightly bullish day on less than average volume. The price movement was larger than the end of day change. The Stochastic indicator is practically unchanged as it's signal line contacts it. The MACD indicator still climbed but is weakening. It is my opinion that EVEP has topped out.

SLV had a bullish day on less than average volume. The price movement originated much lower and pushed it's way back up. The Stochastic indicator moved up slightly, but is in the overbought range. The MACD indicator appears unchanged. With higher-highs now becoming lower-highs, this is a definite pivot back down. With so many indicators in the overbought range, it is my opinion that my sold call option is secure from being exercised through the next option expiration.

My paper trades saw some ups today. ISPH had a 4Q financials inspired bull rally today with my "sold" call options against my shares at a strike price 70 cents over my entry, I don't see it being exercised against since the technicals have just recently dropped out of the over bought range. I perceive the stock doing no more than challenging the top. S finally broke through a declining trend line, but now has a resistance level to break through. As a result, the call options I "bought" are now indicating profit. Yesterday I "purchased" a few more call options. Of them, GLW and LEAP made profit while AUO was unchanged and GME slipped back a little. The stagnation of AUO and drop of GME seems to only be a temporary event in my opinion. I will continue to hold for now. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update

CPLP had a bullish day on less than average volume. The price movement opened above the previous close and did not put in a lower-low. At the end of the day it was up. The Stochastic indicator did not react to this, but the MACD indicator turned back up towards it's signal line. If someone would want to get in at this point, they could, but should be careful about falling below $8.50.

EVEP closed unchanged after moving both higher and lower on below average volume. After three relatively flat days with higher-highs becoming lower-highs, the Stochastic indicator is still not turning down, but the MACD indicator is. It would be wise protect one's principle and profit by either selling off or buying puts. One could also sell calls against their stock if they had enough skin in the game. I, however, do not. I will hold on to my 10 shares and continue to collect on the dividends.

SLV had a bullish day on better than average volume. The price movement had a bearish close after opening with a large gap up. As a result the Stochastic and MACD indicators continued to move up. I have a bit of concern after a stock makes a move like SLV did today. I usually see the stock either flatten out for a little or begin to pull back. With the Stochastic indicator in the overbought range, I am inclined to believe that it will be pulling back. But since it is not that deep into the overbought range, it may still make it to $17.50 before pulling back.

My paper trades were mixed today. S pulled back further today, put I believe it is only temporary. ISPH sky-rocketed today to break through a declining resistance line as well as the most recent peak. With the Stochastic indicator already in the overbought range and on the decline, I believe it to only be a temporary spike, and the recorded sale of my call option should be safe. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update

CPLP had a bullish day on below average volume. The price movement was very broad but still being bullish enough to prevent the Stochastic indicator from going below its signal line. It was also strong enough to slow the decline of the MACD indicator. Things are looking better.

EVEP had a bullish day on below average volume. The price movement was a little broad but closed just slightly below the open. As a result, both the Stochastic and MACD indicators slowed down their declines. This still needs to be watched.

SLV had a bearish day on below average volume. The price movement was relatively narrow. With the ETF being so depressed lately, the Stochastic still made a move up, but it is deep in the oversold range. The MACD indicator reacted to the price movement by slowing its decline. It is at another point that could see a big turn around.

My paper trades were a mixed bag as well. JADE, JPM, OPWV and PCS all had bearish days. The JADE call option is still the same, the JPM call option slipped down with the stock, and the PCS option actually gained a little. The remaining stocks, S and ISPH closed with gains. All of them should be turning up soon, but their behaviors are giving me mixed opinions. I have the least amount of confidence in OPWV. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update

Today was a weak day in the market with relatively small loses and the result for me was mixed.

CPLP had an up day. The end result was a profit for me. From my analysis, there is plenty of potential for some dramatic gains, so I will continue to hold on to it.

CVX had a down day, and this brought down the value of my Call Option. As it stands, CVX closed at the first of two of it's most consistent trend lines of support. Although past behavior is not indicative of future results, it does, suggest the most likely action to take place. And since bouncing up after hitting this support line is the most common reaction, it is likely that it will go up tomorrow. Now, if it breaks down further, then I will begin to consider protecting what's left of the principal.

EVEP had a down day. The end result is that I am a little bit in the red with it. The current overall trend is bullish while the stock is going toward the supporting trend line of it's channel. Due to the secondary indicators that I watch, I have the opinion that the stock may be in the process of pulling back. Since my position in it is small, and it pays a large dividend, I am going to wait this out.

FPL had a down day. Since I a Call Option on the stock, the value of my position also lost value. The price movement of the day, however, did not drop below the resistance level that it broke through the day before. Although the secondary indicators suggest the stock is becoming overbought, I am positive about future potential for upward gains. It could just be defining a new resistance trend line for a bullish trend. I still have time left on my option and plenty of value before my stop-limit order get triggered, so I will let it ride until the stop-limit order gets triggered or I get more reason to sell.

MU almost had a really up day, but pulled back before the close to result in a very long upper wick. The wick is actually longer than the body of the candle stick. This could mean that the stock has exhausted the number of bulls currently in the market place. And since the general direction of the stock for the past month has been up, it is likely that the stock is going to perform a pull back to it's supporting trend line before moving up. If it breaks below that supporting trend line, then this could be the signal that indicates the end off it's run. I personally don't see it breaking below that supporting trend line. It may not even fall below $7.75. Neither direction means anything to me as I am looking forward to getting the non-dividend paying stock called away from me for a little capital gain or to sell another call option against it if it drops below the strike price of the current Call Option before and through expiration.

SLV had a down day. It's price movement resulted in a doji star below the previous day. Since it has currently been in an up trend, such candle sticks carry little influence by themselves. However, secondary indicators suggest that the current run could be due for a pull back. Such a pull back doesn't seem to be all that drastic of a move. It will probably be no more than a $1 per share. Anything more than that should be considered seriously.

As for my paper trading in the options market, both stocks that I am watching for that have pulled back today.

PCS pulled back only a few cents so there is still some strength behind it according to the secondary indicators. The option value didn't move any so I am leaving it in place.

S, on the other hand, still continues to pulled back. Even though it started out making some gains, S ended the day down. When it topped out two weeks ago, it created a slightly declining resistance trend line. At this point I could revise my contingency price lower by 5 cents. But because it is such a shallow descent, I am leaving the contingency price as is. I will wait for it to break $3.95 on the stock before the option get bough. I should be in this position within the next 5 to 10 days. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Personal Stock Pick

I am making a personal stock pick for Monday. It will be for 10 shares of EVEP. This is one of the stocks in the energy sector that I have been watching. It is actually considered fundamentally unworthy because of it's highe EPS and low PE. However, it has a track record of defying it's fundamentals. Additionally it has a dividend yield of over 11%. Yes, it is near it's 52-week high. But I truly want to find out how much profit it can make, as well as how much profit it has to make before it is considered a fundamentally favorable company. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update: Week In Review, Lessons Learned, and Personal Picks.

This week has been a roller-coaster of mistakes and bad timing for me. Starting last week, I get into five positions in varying industries, which isn't bad. AXP, CVX, FPL, WFC, and V. The problem with the positions I took was the directions I took and when I got into them.

With AXP, I got into it as a Put using the reasoning that the secondary indicators on the daily and weekly charts were overbought and had turned down on the daily. What I failed to do was read the volume. It had been better than average for two straight days. I should of stayed out.

With CVX, I also got into it as a Put using the same reasoning as AXP. The next red flag should have been that it had just broken above the resistance trend line of the inclining channel it had been in. Before getting into it, I should have waited for it to drop back below it. Realizing this mistake, 3 days later I swap my Put for a Call. Unfortunately, on that day it bounced down from a horizontal price resistance level of about $78.50 ending near the inclining trend line and has since then been riding along the inclining trend line it had just broken above. Now I have a Call losing value due to time decay as it continues to get squeezed by converging trend lines. I am patiently waiting to see which one it breaks out from before recouping what I have left. The good news is that I have until January to see what happens and the lines seem to converge after Thanksgiving.

With FPL, I got into it as a Call but this decision was passed on the secondary indicators on the daily and weekly charts being oversold. Without any proof from price movement or volume I jump in. It has since then continued to slide in price and I continue to hold it with apparent foolish hope that it will finally bounce since it is in the range of it's 52 week low and it tends to rally strong during the winter.

With WFC, I got into it as a Put. This was actually the right decision as it is was in a down trend at the time, the secondary indicators on both the daily and weekly charts indicated overbought and declining, and the strongest volume day in the past week was negative. The problem was that two days later I see a bullish candlestick on a very up day, and the MACD on the daily chart reacts to it. I assume that I got it at the bottom and that it is reversing already. I totally failed to acknowledge the lack of volume. To make matters worse, instead of waiting for confirmation, I swap my Put for a Call instead of just cashing out. If I had just waited, I would be up $69. However, I have been losing value on my Call because it is near a support level it has bounced off of three times before, and since I have until January on it, I am hoping it will bounce off of there and will travel back up to or past $30.

With V, I also got into it as a Put for similar reasons for getting into AXP and CVX. The problem here was that I failed to consider it's earnings report came out the same day of the trade. If I had remembered to do that, I would have known to wait and see. Now I have been stopped out of that position as it hit and exceeded it's most recent high. Of all my stocks to swap Puts for calls, I don't with this one. And now, it is up $2.50. I would have been up 50-100% just this week alone with $80 and $85 being the next resistance levels. Just plain stupid on my part.

In addition to the swaps of the above trading activity, I also got into SLV and USO as Calls. My reasoning being that SLV had just bounced off of a support level it bounced off of before, and USO had just been on an up trend and pulled back to a bounced off of a resistance level it had just broken through. ("Old resistance becomes new support.") The good news is that SLV has done well by me. It has rallied up over a dollar on strong volume and is holding there on weak volume. The bad news is that USO has been bouncing off of it's support level ever since. In addition it has dropped below an inclining trend line today. This action was on slightly stronger than average volume and leads me to believe that next week it will open and close below the horizontal support level I just mentioned. If it does so, I will be closing my position on it. If it doesn't, I will adjust the inclining trend line.

Things to remember:

• Pay attention to price movement AND volume more than secondary indicators.
• Check for earnings reports.
• Trade only after confirmation. (More than one period against the trend.)

Currently I am watching CEPH, GNW, MU, PCS, and S. These stocks were reported to be fundamentally ready to rally. I am not so certain about that after my experience with FPL. As of today, only CEPH and MU have broken their apparent downward trends with confirmation. However, CEPH has a resistance level at $60 that isn't too far away and another at $62.50 I will probably wait do see if it breaks out over $60 before getting in since it doesn't have earnings to report until February 2010. MU is currently short of it's next resistance level of $7.50. I want to see another confirmation day before I get in. Then from there it is $9. The uneasy thing is that it has earnings to report after the December 2009 options expiration. I should probably be out of it by then, so I don't really have a lot of time. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

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