Well that was a lousy day in the market for me. I got stopped out of both my SLV and UNG option positions for a loss on both. SLV stopped out at $1.26, a little under my stop of $1.28, for a loss of about 26.9%. UNG stopped out at $0.38 for a loss of about 2.6%. Both are looking like they are pulling back. At some point in the near future, I will probably try re-entering.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
SLV - iShares Silver Trust ETF
UNG - United States Natural Gas Fund ETF
Showing posts with label stop-loss. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stop-loss. Show all posts
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Portfolio Update
For today I had a contingency order to BTO 3 contracts of the SLV 20110122 $28 calls if SLV broke above $27.21. It was my intent to buy them at no more than $1.71 per contract share. To my disappointment, SLV opened on a gap up of $0.65, climbed up as high as $28.72 and then came crashing down to $25.85 before closing at $26.18. As a result, the option position I made the order for executed on the down move and is currently ~22% in the hole. I don't want to lose much more, so I have an order to STC my position if it drops another 3% to under $1.28 per contract share.
On the positive side, I have a paper gain of 22% on my UNG call option position that I BTO yesterday. Unfortunately it still isn't enough for my stop order to STC at a profit. I will still have to wait and see.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
BTO - buy-to-open / bought-to-open
SLV - iShares Silver Trust ETF
STC - sell-to-close / sold-to-close
UNG - United States Natural Gas Fund ETF
On the positive side, I have a paper gain of 22% on my UNG call option position that I BTO yesterday. Unfortunately it still isn't enough for my stop order to STC at a profit. I will still have to wait and see.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
BTO - buy-to-open / bought-to-open
SLV - iShares Silver Trust ETF
STC - sell-to-close / sold-to-close
UNG - United States Natural Gas Fund ETF
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Position Update
Wednesday was another day in the market with positive price movement. Because of that I don't have much to say except to provide an update on how my positions are doing, and speculate on what I could be doing if I had the free capital.
Let's start with my NG Covered Call. I probably should have sold the Call option with a shorter time frame, as it continues to rise with 31 days left until expiration. As a result, I am locked into it unless I come up with the cash to buy back the option and I have no desire to buy it back just to sell the stock.
Now let's look at my Bought-To-Open Call positions. Wednesday was a great day for CVX as it rose over 50% to finish swallowing the decline of a few days ago and put in a profit. As a result of that I have tightened it's stop. As for DIS, it only had an okay day. The gains were only meager and it seems to be hitting what I call an inclining resistance line (the top of a trading range). So far the gains have been great and I hope this resistance doesn't hold and more gains continue. However, I can't rely on hopes, so my stop remains in place. I may tighten it before Thursday's open.
As I prognosticated, FPL has done as I expected and has turned up, however, I am without capital to take advantage of it. This is another reason I probably should have sold the September Call on NG instead of the October Call. It's also another reason to tighten the stop on my DIS Call. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page.
Let's start with my NG Covered Call. I probably should have sold the Call option with a shorter time frame, as it continues to rise with 31 days left until expiration. As a result, I am locked into it unless I come up with the cash to buy back the option and I have no desire to buy it back just to sell the stock.
Now let's look at my Bought-To-Open Call positions. Wednesday was a great day for CVX as it rose over 50% to finish swallowing the decline of a few days ago and put in a profit. As a result of that I have tightened it's stop. As for DIS, it only had an okay day. The gains were only meager and it seems to be hitting what I call an inclining resistance line (the top of a trading range). So far the gains have been great and I hope this resistance doesn't hold and more gains continue. However, I can't rely on hopes, so my stop remains in place. I may tighten it before Thursday's open.
As I prognosticated, FPL has done as I expected and has turned up, however, I am without capital to take advantage of it. This is another reason I probably should have sold the September Call on NG instead of the October Call. It's also another reason to tighten the stop on my DIS Call. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Back Again, Finally
Hello again. I apologies for not being around. I picked up a contract job for a little while and, circumstances as they were, I just could not get online afterwards to tend to this blog or my own positions as you will soon hear. I am, however, back again.
I am not going to do the market wraps like I have done before. You can go to any number of financial sights to see that. What I am going to do is quickly state the condition of my own accounts.
For instance, those two options I had (CVX QJ and FPL QH) both expired worthless. This is a lesson in setting stops that I still have to perfect (school of hard knocks). My stock in Nova Gold (NG), however, is doing well. The average unit cost of my three positions is $2.95 and today's closing price is $3.82. Including the deduction of commissions, this is 29.4% profit over 5 months.
Now I'll admit, that is not the +/-70% I could of pocketed if I had regularly watched the stock and set my stop to catch the shift of June 3rd. But seriously, show me a bank that is offering that kind of interest and I'll stop blogging.
Right now the market has deflated some so I am analyzing for future positions to make. Keep on the watch for more details.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
I am not going to do the market wraps like I have done before. You can go to any number of financial sights to see that. What I am going to do is quickly state the condition of my own accounts.
For instance, those two options I had (CVX QJ and FPL QH) both expired worthless. This is a lesson in setting stops that I still have to perfect (school of hard knocks). My stock in Nova Gold (NG), however, is doing well. The average unit cost of my three positions is $2.95 and today's closing price is $3.82. Including the deduction of commissions, this is 29.4% profit over 5 months.
Now I'll admit, that is not the +/-70% I could of pocketed if I had regularly watched the stock and set my stop to catch the shift of June 3rd. But seriously, show me a bank that is offering that kind of interest and I'll stop blogging.
Right now the market has deflated some so I am analyzing for future positions to make. Keep on the watch for more details.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Uncle Sam's Economic Plan
Today I watched a recording of the CNBC interview with Eric Hovde of Hovde Capital Advisors LLC. (Uncle Sam's Economic Plan) This is another guy that has his head on straight. I will be commenting on it today. But before I do that let's review the markets.
Another wild ride in the markets today. The markets showed a wrestiling of position between the bulls and the bears in the U.S. markets, but the bears won out once again.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,229.72, -50.43, -0.69%
Hang Seng => 12,033.88, -283.58, -2.30%
Straits Times => 1,528.51, -4.89, -0.32%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,512.09, -113.74, -3.14%
DAX => 3,690.72, -19.35, -0.52%
CAC => 2,554.55, -26.91, -1.04%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,725.30, -37.99, -0.56%
Nasdaq => 1,321.01, -1.84, -0.14%
S&P => 696.33, -4.49, -0.64%
As for me:
AMD => 2.07, +0.06
F => 1.81, -0.07
NG=> 2.60, +0.06
AMD DG => 0.10, +0.01
HRP JZ =>1.50, unchanged
NLH JZ => 0.87, -0.68 (Sold to Close).
QAV QZ => 1.83, +0.06 (Bought to Open @ 1.77, Stop @ 1.59)
Because of the continuing lack of confidence in this administrations policy making, I am betting on the bears with a put position against the Nasdaq ETF, Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQQ, QAV QZ - 26MAY09Put). But as you can tell I am still holding on to most my bull positions unless their stops are met.
My reasons for holding are because of their extremely low price points, some technical indicators, and my inherent personal optimism in for those companies.
Now on to the interview, Uncle Sam's Economic Plan. Eric Hovde made a lot of good points that I want to reiterate. But first some numbers that I was interested to see. Residential real estate loans account for about 40% of total bank assets, commercial real estate loans accounts for about 24%, and business real estate loans accounts for about 20%. Right now it is the residential real estate that is dragging down the sector. It's Hovde's opinion that commercial real estate is not far behind from being added to the problem even while residential real estate continues to slide. He is looking for it to start reversing quickly if residential real estate finally stabilizes and turns around.
Hovde is also more realistic in my opinion and states that the U.S. is "rapidly and subtly falling into a depression." This, he says with the understanding that there really isn't a technical definition of a depression. I agree with Hovde, and I am sure most people do, that the credit bubble was the cause.
Despite the governments attempts, the market has a total lack of confidence in the administrations direction. The continuing opinion is that there are too many general ideas out there with few if any specifics about what is being done now to stimulate the economy. As a result the government appears to be quasi socialist at this time.
Hovde describes some examples as to how the stimulus does not focus enough on long lasting changes. One such example is on the building of a high speed rail. Hovde sees a high speed rail as a good idea, but where it is being planned for is the problem. "Anaheim to Vegas? Are you kidding me?! ... go to Disneyland and then gamble away [in the casinos]?", stated Hovde.
Hovde is not overly critical about all things. He understands extending unemployment benefits, funding police forces, health care and the like. He is mostly stunned by the degree and scope. He is even fine with paying higher taxes. (Hearing that shocked me.)
Things that Hovde disagrees with are the taking away of the home mortgage deduction, not for him but for all the others that need it in this housing recession. As far as the deduction for charitable contributions, Hovde is "infuriated" that it is being reduced at this time where charities are needed most.
Another issue that irritates Hovde is the exploitation of cramdown. He sees people gaming the system. He has actually been approached by individuals that are capable of paying there mortgage wanting to stop paying their mortgage just so that they can get a reduction in mortgage payment.
My opinion, why wasn't Hovde added to the President's cabinet?
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Another wild ride in the markets today. The markets showed a wrestiling of position between the bulls and the bears in the U.S. markets, but the bears won out once again.
Asia:
Nikkei => 7,229.72, -50.43, -0.69%
Hang Seng => 12,033.88, -283.58, -2.30%
Straits Times => 1,528.51, -4.89, -0.32%
Europe:
FTSE => 3,512.09, -113.74, -3.14%
DAX => 3,690.72, -19.35, -0.52%
CAC => 2,554.55, -26.91, -1.04%
U.S.:
Dow => 6,725.30, -37.99, -0.56%
Nasdaq => 1,321.01, -1.84, -0.14%
S&P => 696.33, -4.49, -0.64%
As for me:
AMD => 2.07, +0.06
F => 1.81, -0.07
NG=> 2.60, +0.06
AMD DG => 0.10, +0.01
HRP JZ =>1.50, unchanged
NLH JZ => 0.87, -0.68 (Sold to Close).
QAV QZ => 1.83, +0.06 (Bought to Open @ 1.77, Stop @ 1.59)
Because of the continuing lack of confidence in this administrations policy making, I am betting on the bears with a put position against the Nasdaq ETF, Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQQ, QAV QZ - 26MAY09Put). But as you can tell I am still holding on to most my bull positions unless their stops are met.
My reasons for holding are because of their extremely low price points, some technical indicators, and my inherent personal optimism in for those companies.
Now on to the interview, Uncle Sam's Economic Plan. Eric Hovde made a lot of good points that I want to reiterate. But first some numbers that I was interested to see. Residential real estate loans account for about 40% of total bank assets, commercial real estate loans accounts for about 24%, and business real estate loans accounts for about 20%. Right now it is the residential real estate that is dragging down the sector. It's Hovde's opinion that commercial real estate is not far behind from being added to the problem even while residential real estate continues to slide. He is looking for it to start reversing quickly if residential real estate finally stabilizes and turns around.
Hovde is also more realistic in my opinion and states that the U.S. is "rapidly and subtly falling into a depression." This, he says with the understanding that there really isn't a technical definition of a depression. I agree with Hovde, and I am sure most people do, that the credit bubble was the cause.
Despite the governments attempts, the market has a total lack of confidence in the administrations direction. The continuing opinion is that there are too many general ideas out there with few if any specifics about what is being done now to stimulate the economy. As a result the government appears to be quasi socialist at this time.
Hovde describes some examples as to how the stimulus does not focus enough on long lasting changes. One such example is on the building of a high speed rail. Hovde sees a high speed rail as a good idea, but where it is being planned for is the problem. "Anaheim to Vegas? Are you kidding me?! ... go to Disneyland and then gamble away [in the casinos]?", stated Hovde.
Hovde is not overly critical about all things. He understands extending unemployment benefits, funding police forces, health care and the like. He is mostly stunned by the degree and scope. He is even fine with paying higher taxes. (Hearing that shocked me.)
Things that Hovde disagrees with are the taking away of the home mortgage deduction, not for him but for all the others that need it in this housing recession. As far as the deduction for charitable contributions, Hovde is "infuriated" that it is being reduced at this time where charities are needed most.
Another issue that irritates Hovde is the exploitation of cramdown. He sees people gaming the system. He has actually been approached by individuals that are capable of paying there mortgage wanting to stop paying their mortgage just so that they can get a reduction in mortgage payment.
My opinion, why wasn't Hovde added to the President's cabinet?
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Glad to be wrong.
Well I am happy to say that I am glad to be wrong about the market today. It almost completely wiped out it's losses from Monday on news that Federal Reserve Chairman "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke prognosticates that if the bailout works as planned, the recession may be over by the end of 2009, beginning of 2010. The Dow rose 236.16 points to 7350.94, short by almost 15 pints of yesterday's loss; while the NASDAQ and S&P did a little bit better. The NASDAQ rose 54.11 points to 1441.83 while the S&P rose 29.81 to 773.14 both bringing them into the green for the week. This usually means we will have a rally for a few days so I am going to be making a few more trades. We will see if the market can hold on to these gains for the rest of the week.
This morning I reported that I submitted a Buy order for FPL. The good news is that FPL did go up. The bad news is that it didn't go up enough to trigger a buy. It ended the day at 49.10. Several things show that this stock is improving. The highs and lows have gotten tighter, the price opened and closed above yesterdays closing and for candle stick readers, we have a Bullish Harami. The secondary indicators of the MACD and Stochastic show that the momentum is officially turning. For these reasons I am resubmitting my order but with slightly tighter parameters.
I submitted an OTO order for 9 shares of FPL with a Entry-Stop of 49.40, Entry-Limit of 49.56, and a Exit-Stop of 47.78. This defines a risk of approximately 4%. In addition I have also found a few more stocks that I like at this time. Below are the details of my orders.
Ford Motors?
Yes, Ford Motors. Out of the Big Three (GM and Chrysler being the other two) I can only believe that Ford will survive this recession without filing for bankruptcy. They have the best fundamentals of the three. They are also about as cheap as they are going to get before bouncing again. This is my order: 100 shares of F at 2.02-2.04 with a stop of 1.78. This allows for about a 13% loss.
Advanced Micro Devices
I am a fan of AMD chips. I really do like their performance over Intel. The sad thing is they have made some agreements in the past that have hurt their profit. That being said, I think they finally are getting better at there contract writing with their partners. They might be very well set up to start dominating the market again, but that won't be known for some time. Technically speaking though, everything seems just right. Momentum indicators are turning up and the price is on the floor. This is my order: 100 shares of AMD at 2.21-2.24 with a stop of 1.99. This allows for about a 11% loss.
Option Plays?
Yes, I am into options also. This weekend I found a few stocks that are actually fundamentally strong and in a very under valued price range. HRPT (HRP, a Real Estate Operations company) and Liberty Media (LINTA, a Broadcasting & Cable TV company). Both of them are dirt cheap as stocks but are even more dirt cheap as options, even way out in October. These are my orders: I submitted an order for the 2.50October09Calls (HRP JZ for HRP and NLH JZ for LINTA).
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not making any recommendations to you about what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
This morning I reported that I submitted a Buy order for FPL. The good news is that FPL did go up. The bad news is that it didn't go up enough to trigger a buy. It ended the day at 49.10. Several things show that this stock is improving. The highs and lows have gotten tighter, the price opened and closed above yesterdays closing and for candle stick readers, we have a Bullish Harami. The secondary indicators of the MACD and Stochastic show that the momentum is officially turning. For these reasons I am resubmitting my order but with slightly tighter parameters.
I submitted an OTO order for 9 shares of FPL with a Entry-Stop of 49.40, Entry-Limit of 49.56, and a Exit-Stop of 47.78. This defines a risk of approximately 4%. In addition I have also found a few more stocks that I like at this time. Below are the details of my orders.
Ford Motors?
Yes, Ford Motors. Out of the Big Three (GM and Chrysler being the other two) I can only believe that Ford will survive this recession without filing for bankruptcy. They have the best fundamentals of the three. They are also about as cheap as they are going to get before bouncing again. This is my order: 100 shares of F at 2.02-2.04 with a stop of 1.78. This allows for about a 13% loss.
Advanced Micro Devices
I am a fan of AMD chips. I really do like their performance over Intel. The sad thing is they have made some agreements in the past that have hurt their profit. That being said, I think they finally are getting better at there contract writing with their partners. They might be very well set up to start dominating the market again, but that won't be known for some time. Technically speaking though, everything seems just right. Momentum indicators are turning up and the price is on the floor. This is my order: 100 shares of AMD at 2.21-2.24 with a stop of 1.99. This allows for about a 11% loss.
Option Plays?
Yes, I am into options also. This weekend I found a few stocks that are actually fundamentally strong and in a very under valued price range. HRPT (HRP, a Real Estate Operations company) and Liberty Media (LINTA, a Broadcasting & Cable TV company). Both of them are dirt cheap as stocks but are even more dirt cheap as options, even way out in October. These are my orders: I submitted an order for the 2.50October09Calls (HRP JZ for HRP and NLH JZ for LINTA).
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not making any recommendations to you about what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
The Market Sucks Right Now, But...
Right now the market sucks. It looks like nothing good can be seen on the horizon. But, if you look hard enough you can find a few shiny stones in the murky black. Todays pick and the usual blatherskite.
Tuesday, February 24th, the market is suppose to open with a little money in the pocket. I suspect that the same as yesterday is going to happen. The bulls are going to try for a rally, but the bears are going to claw them at the heal.
However, I do have one pick that might just buck the trend. It is a utility stock in my own little home state, and the provider of electricity for more than just my familiar home. It also provides electricity for much of the south-eastern states of the Union. I'm talking about FPL. Yeah I know utilities took a beating yesterday also but just about everything did. Strangely enough the major airlines had some upward as US Airways states that they will no longer charge for non-alcoholic beverages, but who is really traveling by air these days?
So, back to the pick, FPL. I am personally going to try for it today. My strategy is to Buy 9 shares at a price between $50.12 and $50.29. That is a Stop of $50.12 Limit of $50.29. I am also going to be protecting the majority of my "bet" with a OTO (One-Triggers-Other) Stop of $47.48. That is a position of just under $500 with a risk of about 6%. My target is the $55-$56 range. Which means a moderate gain of maybe $45. Not a whole lot but in this market you take what you can get. This is my own personal opinion. I think it is ready to go up again. It has been doing this oscillation thing since October of 2008 and currently it has been dancing at the bottom of this oscillation for the past 4 days. The technicals say that it is oversold, and the downward momentum has been slowly declining, so I am ready and to pull the trigger.
Understand, please, that I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not telling you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking some risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will incur regardless of my opinion.
So if you are not ready to follow in my footsteps, I have two words for you. Paper Trade! Get a legal pad. Make 9 columns and above each column right the following labels: Symbol, Shares, Entry-Stop, Entry-Limit, Stop-Loss, Target, In, Out, and Difference in that order.
Tuesday, February 24th, the market is suppose to open with a little money in the pocket. I suspect that the same as yesterday is going to happen. The bulls are going to try for a rally, but the bears are going to claw them at the heal.
However, I do have one pick that might just buck the trend. It is a utility stock in my own little home state, and the provider of electricity for more than just my familiar home. It also provides electricity for much of the south-eastern states of the Union. I'm talking about FPL. Yeah I know utilities took a beating yesterday also but just about everything did. Strangely enough the major airlines had some upward as US Airways states that they will no longer charge for non-alcoholic beverages, but who is really traveling by air these days?
So, back to the pick, FPL. I am personally going to try for it today. My strategy is to Buy 9 shares at a price between $50.12 and $50.29. That is a Stop of $50.12 Limit of $50.29. I am also going to be protecting the majority of my "bet" with a OTO (One-Triggers-Other) Stop of $47.48. That is a position of just under $500 with a risk of about 6%. My target is the $55-$56 range. Which means a moderate gain of maybe $45. Not a whole lot but in this market you take what you can get. This is my own personal opinion. I think it is ready to go up again. It has been doing this oscillation thing since October of 2008 and currently it has been dancing at the bottom of this oscillation for the past 4 days. The technicals say that it is oversold, and the downward momentum has been slowly declining, so I am ready and to pull the trigger.
Understand, please, that I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not telling you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking some risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will incur regardless of my opinion.
So if you are not ready to follow in my footsteps, I have two words for you. Paper Trade! Get a legal pad. Make 9 columns and above each column right the following labels: Symbol, Shares, Entry-Stop, Entry-Limit, Stop-Loss, Target, In, Out, and Difference in that order.
- Symbol is for the stock symbol, obviously.
- Shares is for the number of shares you want to buy.
- Entry-Stop is the least you are willing to pay.
- Entry-Limit is the most you are willing to pay.
- Stop-Loss is the most you are willing to watch it fall.
- Target is the value you "hope" it reaches so you can take some profit.
- In is the product of the number of shares and the price it was bought, for pessimist sake use the Entry-Limit figure.
- Out is the product of the number of shares and the price it was sold, assume the closing price for pessimist sake unless you hit your target then use that.
- Difference is the difference between the In and the Out, which will either be positive or negative.
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