Glad to be wrong.

Well I am happy to say that I am glad to be wrong about the market today. It almost completely wiped out it's losses from Monday on news that Federal Reserve Chairman "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke prognosticates that if the bailout works as planned, the recession may be over by the end of 2009, beginning of 2010. The Dow rose 236.16 points to 7350.94, short by almost 15 pints of yesterday's loss; while the NASDAQ and S&P did a little bit better. The NASDAQ rose 54.11 points to 1441.83 while the S&P rose 29.81 to 773.14 both bringing them into the green for the week. This usually means we will have a rally for a few days so I am going to be making a few more trades. We will see if the market can hold on to these gains for the rest of the week.

This morning I reported that I submitted a Buy order for FPL. The good news is that FPL did go up. The bad news is that it didn't go up enough to trigger a buy. It ended the day at 49.10. Several things show that this stock is improving. The highs and lows have gotten tighter, the price opened and closed above yesterdays closing and for candle stick readers, we have a Bullish Harami. The secondary indicators of the MACD and Stochastic show that the momentum is officially turning. For these reasons I am resubmitting my order but with slightly tighter parameters.

I submitted an OTO order for 9 shares of FPL with a Entry-Stop of 49.40, Entry-Limit of 49.56, and a Exit-Stop of 47.78. This defines a risk of approximately 4%. In addition I have also found a few more stocks that I like at this time. Below are the details of my orders.

Ford Motors?
Yes, Ford Motors. Out of the Big Three (GM and Chrysler being the other two) I can only believe that Ford will survive this recession without filing for bankruptcy. They have the best fundamentals of the three. They are also about as cheap as they are going to get before bouncing again. This is my order: 100 shares of F at 2.02-2.04 with a stop of 1.78. This allows for about a 13% loss.

Advanced Micro Devices
I am a fan of AMD chips. I really do like their performance over Intel. The sad thing is they have made some agreements in the past that have hurt their profit. That being said, I think they finally are getting better at there contract writing with their partners. They might be very well set up to start dominating the market again, but that won't be known for some time. Technically speaking though, everything seems just right. Momentum indicators are turning up and the price is on the floor. This is my order: 100 shares of AMD at 2.21-2.24 with a stop of 1.99. This allows for about a 11% loss.

Option Plays?
Yes, I am into options also. This weekend I found a few stocks that are actually fundamentally strong and in a very under valued price range. HRPT (HRP, a Real Estate Operations company) and Liberty Media (LINTA, a Broadcasting & Cable TV company). Both of them are dirt cheap as stocks but are even more dirt cheap as options, even way out in October. These are my orders: I submitted an order for the 2.50October09Calls (HRP JZ for HRP and NLH JZ for LINTA).

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.


Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not making any recommendations to you about what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.

The Market Sucks Right Now, But...

Right now the market sucks. It looks like nothing good can be seen on the horizon. But, if you look hard enough you can find a few shiny stones in the murky black. Todays pick and the usual blatherskite.

Tuesday, February 24th, the market is suppose to open with a little money in the pocket. I suspect that the same as yesterday is going to happen. The bulls are going to try for a rally, but the bears are going to claw them at the heal.

However, I do have one pick that might just buck the trend. It is a utility stock in my own little home state, and the provider of electricity for more than just my familiar home. It also provides electricity for much of the south-eastern states of the Union. I'm talking about FPL. Yeah I know utilities took a beating yesterday also but just about everything did. Strangely enough the major airlines had some upward as US Airways states that they will no longer charge for non-alcoholic beverages, but who is really traveling by air these days?

So, back to the pick, FPL. I am personally going to try for it today. My strategy is to Buy 9 shares at a price between $50.12 and $50.29. That is a Stop of $50.12 Limit of $50.29. I am also going to be protecting the majority of my "bet" with a OTO (One-Triggers-Other) Stop of $47.48. That is a position of just under $500 with a risk of about 6%. My target is the $55-$56 range. Which means a moderate gain of maybe $45. Not a whole lot but in this market you take what you can get. This is my own personal opinion. I think it is ready to go up again. It has been doing this oscillation thing since October of 2008 and currently it has been dancing at the bottom of this oscillation for the past 4 days. The technicals say that it is oversold, and the downward momentum has been slowly declining, so I am ready and to pull the trigger.

Understand, please, that I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not telling you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking some risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will incur regardless of my opinion.

So if you are not ready to follow in my footsteps, I have two words for you. Paper Trade! Get a legal pad. Make 9 columns and above each column right the following labels: Symbol, Shares, Entry-Stop, Entry-Limit, Stop-Loss, Target, In, Out, and Difference in that order.

• Symbol is for the stock symbol, obviously.
• Shares is for the number of shares you want to buy.
• Entry-Stop is the least you are willing to pay.
• Entry-Limit is the most you are willing to pay.
• Stop-Loss is the most you are willing to watch it fall.
• Target is the value you "hope" it reaches so you can take some profit.
• In is the product of the number of shares and the price it was bought, for pessimist sake use the Entry-Limit figure.
• Out is the product of the number of shares and the price it was sold, assume the closing price for pessimist sake unless you hit your target then use that.
• Difference is the difference between the In and the Out, which will either be positive or negative.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.