In my last post I recorded that I had been pushed into all cash my my selections. Since then, I have been in and out of a few option plays. The results have been interesting. Let me recap.
On October 27th, I entered into five options. I BTO a $35Jan10 Put for AXP $2.80, a $75Jan10 Put on CVX, a $50Jan10 Call on FPL, $72.50Jan10 Put on V, and a $29Jan10 Put on WFC. Total invested was a little over $1,640.
Within the next two days, my confidence was totally shaken. AXP continued sideways, retracing it's movements, each day. CVX bounced off a trend line I thought it was breaking below. FPL continued to get even more oversold. V rallied against me. WFC declined for my benefit but then took it back.
The following day, October 30th, I chose to swap out my options. I replaced my $75Jan10 Put on CVX with a $80Jan10 Call and I swapped my $29Jan10 Put on WFC for a $29Jan10 Call. I chose only to swap those because their secondary indicators on both daily and weekly intervals supported upward potential more.
I didn't change my position on FPL because the secondary indicators continued to indicate an oversold condition and the history of FPL is that it is more likely to bounce and rally for a while during the winter. I also left AXP alone because it's momentum indicators have been trending sideways on the weekly indicator with no effort toward the upside. It seems more likely to drop sooner than rally for big gains. My reason for leaving my Put on V in place has to do with it being in a channel with large swing potential. In fact, I am only still in it today because it pulled back hard today instead of breaking out.
In addition to the CVX and WFC Puts I swapped out for Calls, I also BTO a $16Jan10 Call on SLV as well as a $41Jan10 Call on USO. Neither of these did particularly well today. However, my reasons for getting involved in them is simple. They are indices on the value of hard assets. They both are currently being oversold according to their momentum indicators on the daily interval. USO is very near a steep trend line and SLV is at the bottom trend line of a channel. In fact, for both, the movements of the past three days are three legs of a "W" pattern which reinforces the potential of these positions. If next week begins like this week ended, then a change of opinion would be practical.
In regards to today's pull back. The Dow pulled back to the lower trend line of it's channel. Unless it breaks below and stays under this trend line next week, I believe it will rally up to 10,500. The same is my opinion for the NASDAQ, S&P and Russel. However, the latter three all closed right on, or slightly below, the trend line. This adds to the possibility that it could remain at these levels or drop further before gaining back. If next week begins with a repeat of today, I may swap out or cash out my contrary positions. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Friday, October 30, 2009
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Portfolio Update: In All Cash
If you've read my previous posts, you will know that I was Bearish on V, and was prognosticating that it was pulling back. Unfortunately, every attempt to pull back was refused by the market and on Wednesday, the market faked me out and caused my Sell-To-Close order on V to be triggered. That being said, I am now in all cash and in the red just a little deeper thanks to that last trade.
I am currently looking over my the market for anything that looks good. Unfortunately, today the future looks cloudy for this prognosticator. So, "when in doubt, stay out." That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
I am currently looking over my the market for anything that looks good. Unfortunately, today the future looks cloudy for this prognosticator. So, "when in doubt, stay out." That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Portfolio Update
Another day has past and no change to my portfolio has occurred other than the slight drop in value for my position on V. Time will tell if the choice was good or bad. We will just have to see how things turn out.
In my last post, I mentioned that I resubmitted my order for TLT as I considered it the better of the two choices I had prior. In my opinion TLT was and still is, but unfortunately the strength of the bulls this past trading day forced it to open higher than I expected and, although today was a bearish day, it didn't drop in price enough to trigger my order. Either that or my online brokerage firm is trying to protect me from a trade violation. Whatever the reason, the price for the option is currently to rich for me. I could, however, still get involved in T as the recent movement has kept it in favorable price levels. But, I think I will heed the warnings from my online brokerage account this time, and leave it be.
The possible reasons for my past few failed entry orders is also causing me to re-evaluate my stop-limit strategy some. Maybe I should widen the range. Possibly take the option price I calculate as my stop price and, instead of just adding the necessary interval to set my limit price, also subtract the necessary interval and use that result as the stop price. For example, the calculated value my TLT orders that failed was 3.20 and all I did was add the .10 that my online brokerage firm required of me to set my limit of 3.30. With this adjustment to strategy I would be setting the stop to 3.10 (3.20-.10) and the limit to 3.30 (3.20+.10).
My reason for thinking this is that it may be possible that the window is too small for the amount of market demand and I am being left behind. In the training I took, it was suggested to set limit orders at the asking price and then set the stop after it had been filled. Like many people just getting into the "trading game" I don't have the luxury of being able to watch the market every minute of the day. And if I use my OTO method with a limit instead of at a stop-limit, I could end up waisting money, and the necessary time for the funds to settle, on trades I should never have gotten into. My way, currently, is the better way for me. I will consider the adjustment of strategy while I wait for my funds to settle. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
In my last post, I mentioned that I resubmitted my order for TLT as I considered it the better of the two choices I had prior. In my opinion TLT was and still is, but unfortunately the strength of the bulls this past trading day forced it to open higher than I expected and, although today was a bearish day, it didn't drop in price enough to trigger my order. Either that or my online brokerage firm is trying to protect me from a trade violation. Whatever the reason, the price for the option is currently to rich for me. I could, however, still get involved in T as the recent movement has kept it in favorable price levels. But, I think I will heed the warnings from my online brokerage account this time, and leave it be.
The possible reasons for my past few failed entry orders is also causing me to re-evaluate my stop-limit strategy some. Maybe I should widen the range. Possibly take the option price I calculate as my stop price and, instead of just adding the necessary interval to set my limit price, also subtract the necessary interval and use that result as the stop price. For example, the calculated value my TLT orders that failed was 3.20 and all I did was add the .10 that my online brokerage firm required of me to set my limit of 3.30. With this adjustment to strategy I would be setting the stop to 3.10 (3.20-.10) and the limit to 3.30 (3.20+.10).
My reason for thinking this is that it may be possible that the window is too small for the amount of market demand and I am being left behind. In the training I took, it was suggested to set limit orders at the asking price and then set the stop after it had been filled. Like many people just getting into the "trading game" I don't have the luxury of being able to watch the market every minute of the day. And if I use my OTO method with a limit instead of at a stop-limit, I could end up waisting money, and the necessary time for the funds to settle, on trades I should never have gotten into. My way, currently, is the better way for me. I will consider the adjustment of strategy while I wait for my funds to settle. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Portfolio Update
In my last post I revealed three of my option picks for Monday. As of this post, one of them has been filled but unfortunately has pulled back half way to my stop out price. The other two expired without being filled.
The order that was filled was for V. It open just below the previous day's close and rushed down before retracing all the way back up to be above the previous day's open. This makes this trading day an Bullish Engulfing candle stick. The price movement was a result of the noise of analysis suggesting over performance. But the volume on the day was light, so there is a chance that my prognostication could still come true. Unfortunately, I have concerns because my favorite indicators on a weekly interval show potential strength for a continuation in price. For all of these reasons, my stop-loss order remains in place.
As for the other two orders that expired today. I am resubmitting only one of them, TLT. One of the reasons I am only doing one is because the capital involved in the V position is quite substantial. In fact it takes up the majority of the settled funds I had. Since the NG option assignment was only this past week, the funds from that transaction are not quite settled in my account yet. As a result of that, my second reason is because I am taking a risk of account suspension using unsettled funds in a swing trade. So I decided to resubmit the the order with the highest potential gain. In my opinion, because the ATR, Delta, and distance to most recent high are all greater than those for T, the order for TLT is the better position to make. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
The order that was filled was for V. It open just below the previous day's close and rushed down before retracing all the way back up to be above the previous day's open. This makes this trading day an Bullish Engulfing candle stick. The price movement was a result of the noise of analysis suggesting over performance. But the volume on the day was light, so there is a chance that my prognostication could still come true. Unfortunately, I have concerns because my favorite indicators on a weekly interval show potential strength for a continuation in price. For all of these reasons, my stop-loss order remains in place.
As for the other two orders that expired today. I am resubmitting only one of them, TLT. One of the reasons I am only doing one is because the capital involved in the V position is quite substantial. In fact it takes up the majority of the settled funds I had. Since the NG option assignment was only this past week, the funds from that transaction are not quite settled in my account yet. As a result of that, my second reason is because I am taking a risk of account suspension using unsettled funds in a swing trade. So I decided to resubmit the the order with the highest potential gain. In my opinion, because the ATR, Delta, and distance to most recent high are all greater than those for T, the order for TLT is the better position to make. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Update to Last Portfolio Update and Option Picks
As was expected in my last post, my position in NG was assigned according to the Call option that I had sold against it. I still have orders in place to buy Call options on T and TLT. But now that I have capital available from the NG assignment, I am setting another order in place.
The new order that I am entering is for V. In the past few days, it has reached a trend line that is the upper side of a channel I identified about a month ago. In these past few days it has been showing resistance against pushing above it. As of Friday, V has put in a Bearish Harami candlestick pattern. This is the first indicator of a price reversal. In addition, the secondary indicators I watch, Stochastic and MACD, are showing V to be in a over-bought condition with properties that indicate the slowing and reversal of upside momentum. I would also like to add that RSI and CMF also indicated a shift in momentum. With an ATR of almost $2 per share and about $4 to the downside in order to reach the bottom side of my identified channel, there is a high profit margin for a Put option.
The order I am putting in for V is as follows. I am making a OTO, One-Triggers-Other, order which is a buy order that will trigger, upon fill, a sell order. The buy order is a stop-limit order of 5.50-5.60, according to the calculations I have been using for the past few orders that I have placed. The second order is my initial sell order, to be triggered once the first is filled, set at a stop of 4.15 which is almost 25% under the buy orders stop price. I will adjust the sell order up as the Put option value rises. Doing this will give me flexibility to see which way the stock really goes. If the stock pulls back the full $4 I am expecting, I should see a profit of about 30% in 7 days. I will then sell it or set a really tight stop and see if any more profit can be had. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
The new order that I am entering is for V. In the past few days, it has reached a trend line that is the upper side of a channel I identified about a month ago. In these past few days it has been showing resistance against pushing above it. As of Friday, V has put in a Bearish Harami candlestick pattern. This is the first indicator of a price reversal. In addition, the secondary indicators I watch, Stochastic and MACD, are showing V to be in a over-bought condition with properties that indicate the slowing and reversal of upside momentum. I would also like to add that RSI and CMF also indicated a shift in momentum. With an ATR of almost $2 per share and about $4 to the downside in order to reach the bottom side of my identified channel, there is a high profit margin for a Put option.
The order I am putting in for V is as follows. I am making a OTO, One-Triggers-Other, order which is a buy order that will trigger, upon fill, a sell order. The buy order is a stop-limit order of 5.50-5.60, according to the calculations I have been using for the past few orders that I have placed. The second order is my initial sell order, to be triggered once the first is filled, set at a stop of 4.15 which is almost 25% under the buy orders stop price. I will adjust the sell order up as the Put option value rises. Doing this will give me flexibility to see which way the stock really goes. If the stock pulls back the full $4 I am expecting, I should see a profit of about 30% in 7 days. I will then sell it or set a really tight stop and see if any more profit can be had. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Friday, October 16, 2009
Portfolio Update and Option Picks
It has been a few more days since my last post, so I think it is only fair to provide an update. I will cover the status of my portfolio and my planned actions. Here we go.
My position in NG is officially ITM for the lucky person that bought the Call Option I sold a couple months ago. Will it be assigned? I believe so, but crazy things happen everyday. I'll keep you informed.
My Call option on SLV stopped out and the underlying stock is pointing down, but I believe it will rebound in a short while. I may purchase a different option on the same stock when that time comes. I will keep you in formed.
Second to last thing, I put an order in for Call options on T. That order never got filled because the stock gaped higher than I anticipated and my broker cancelled the trade because the gap put my order on the wrong side of the trade. That is okay, because the stock also pulled all the way back and has since been bouncing around 25.50 and 25.99. This also happens to be at the lower trend line of a trading channel it has been in for a couple months. I have seen this consolidation type behavior before. It will usually breaks out to the up side. For those reasons, I have been re-submitting the order for the past few days, and I have once again set up an order to take place this coming Monday.
Lastly, I decided to try my strategy on TLT. Two days ago it put in a hammer candlestick. A hammer usually indicates a reversal in the stock price direction, which was going down. The Stochastic and MACD also indicate an oversold condition. So I had confidence to believe that a bull reversal was eminent. For those reasons I put in an order to buy the Call option on it. Unfortunately, the order also did not get filled, but the stock did proceed to go up, confirming my analysis that a change in price direction was indicated. I have also put in an order to buy a Call option on it if it continues to rise.
As a quick note, I had been setting my option orders as contingent orders that depended on the stock making it to a calculated stock price before being submitted. I think this might have been an overly cautious on my part. So for the last few orders on T and TLT, I have just been setting them as stop-limit orders at the same values that my calculations have been giving me. As I have explained, the orders still didn't get filled. So I will probably not using contingent orders for my option trades in the foreseeable future. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
My position in NG is officially ITM for the lucky person that bought the Call Option I sold a couple months ago. Will it be assigned? I believe so, but crazy things happen everyday. I'll keep you informed.
My Call option on SLV stopped out and the underlying stock is pointing down, but I believe it will rebound in a short while. I may purchase a different option on the same stock when that time comes. I will keep you in formed.
Second to last thing, I put an order in for Call options on T. That order never got filled because the stock gaped higher than I anticipated and my broker cancelled the trade because the gap put my order on the wrong side of the trade. That is okay, because the stock also pulled all the way back and has since been bouncing around 25.50 and 25.99. This also happens to be at the lower trend line of a trading channel it has been in for a couple months. I have seen this consolidation type behavior before. It will usually breaks out to the up side. For those reasons, I have been re-submitting the order for the past few days, and I have once again set up an order to take place this coming Monday.
Lastly, I decided to try my strategy on TLT. Two days ago it put in a hammer candlestick. A hammer usually indicates a reversal in the stock price direction, which was going down. The Stochastic and MACD also indicate an oversold condition. So I had confidence to believe that a bull reversal was eminent. For those reasons I put in an order to buy the Call option on it. Unfortunately, the order also did not get filled, but the stock did proceed to go up, confirming my analysis that a change in price direction was indicated. I have also put in an order to buy a Call option on it if it continues to rise.
As a quick note, I had been setting my option orders as contingent orders that depended on the stock making it to a calculated stock price before being submitted. I think this might have been an overly cautious on my part. So for the last few orders on T and TLT, I have just been setting them as stop-limit orders at the same values that my calculations have been giving me. As I have explained, the orders still didn't get filled. So I will probably not using contingent orders for my option trades in the foreseeable future. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Portfolio Update and Option Pick
It has been almost a full week since my last post as I haven't had much to report. And, even now, all I have is an unremarkable portfolio update and an option pick. So let's get to it.
At this point, NG is still in contention to be called away from me and there is little chance of it not being called away as it is a full strike price ITM and 3 days until expiration. There is still a remote chance of NG going down, in the next couple days, but it is seriously unlikely. All good though as I am looking forward to having the capital freed up.
My Call on SLV has under-performed. I should have suspected this since I got in after the stock had already gaped up. This here is another learning experience from the school of hard knocks. Note to self: "Do not get in after gaps." The good news is that it hasn't turned down, yet, so I still haven't lost any significant capital. My stop-loss order is still in at 1.35 and the bid and ask are above that. Things are not looking promising for any profit's on this transaction so I suspect I will be stopped out with a small loss.
My option pick for tomorrow is on T. I discovered it as I clicked through my watch list and noticed three key things about it.
At this point, NG is still in contention to be called away from me and there is little chance of it not being called away as it is a full strike price ITM and 3 days until expiration. There is still a remote chance of NG going down, in the next couple days, but it is seriously unlikely. All good though as I am looking forward to having the capital freed up.
My Call on SLV has under-performed. I should have suspected this since I got in after the stock had already gaped up. This here is another learning experience from the school of hard knocks. Note to self: "Do not get in after gaps." The good news is that it hasn't turned down, yet, so I still haven't lost any significant capital. My stop-loss order is still in at 1.35 and the bid and ask are above that. Things are not looking promising for any profit's on this transaction so I suspect I will be stopped out with a small loss.
My option pick for tomorrow is on T. I discovered it as I clicked through my watch list and noticed three key things about it.
- The price movement of the day is in the pattern that I like to call a Bullish Sun Rise. I call it this because it is almost like a Bullish Engulfing, except the open is actually at or slightly above the close of the previous day. However, its body would have engulfed the previous day had it opened slightly lower. Effectively the opposite of a Bearish Dark Cloud Cover.
- The price is bouncing off of a trend line I drew on my chart almost a month ago.
- The technical indicators I use, Stochastic and MACD, are both indicating that T is oversold and poised for a rebound.
As a result I am putting in a order for a Call on T. This call will follow the formula I have been using for the past few option orders I have been making. First, I take the high of the day and add 10% of the ATR to it so that I have a contingency price. (26.03+(.4986*.10)=26.08) Second, I find the difference of the contingency price and the close of the day. (26.08-25.90=.18) Next, I take the delta of my chosen option and multiply it by the difference I just found. (.5577*.18=0.10), and finally I add that product to the last price of my chosen option to determine my stop-entry and add 5 cents to that for my limit-entry. (1.25+.10=1.35 & 1.35+.05=1.40) .
So my order for T Call Options at a price range of 1.35 to 1.40 will be placed only if the last price for T is more than 26.08. I am anticipating a move of about $1 over the next 6 to 8 days. That is a potential profit of +40%. At that time, I believe I will sell and roll it into another position. It should also put me very close to breaking even. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Portfolio Update
The market barely moved Wednesday. Along with that, a few things happened to my portfolio. Let's get to it.
For starters, my Put on ETP cashed out for a small net loss because of the commission costs. If not for commissions, I'd be up only $4. Taking that into consideration, let's bring up my last post. In my last post I mentioned that I probably should be considering a change in strategy in one of three ways. Either I could set my stop on the bid price instead of the last sold price, I could tighten my stop still using the last sold price, or I could start cashing out once my position made a set amount of profit. After sleeping on it and seeing the result of using stops on last sold price, I believe I should at least give two of the considerations a shot. I will start cashing out once my position reaches a set amount of profit and set a tighter stop using the last sold price.
On to NG. It continued to rise Wednesday, and if it continues to rise the rest of the week, my stock will probably be assigned according to the call option I sold.
As for my order for a Call on SLV, I got my confirmed price movement and entered into the position a the stop price of 1.55. Currently the options sits at 1.60. In line with my recently made decision about setting a tighter stop using the last sold price, I will be setting my stop on this new position at 1.35 and bump it up as needed. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
For starters, my Put on ETP cashed out for a small net loss because of the commission costs. If not for commissions, I'd be up only $4. Taking that into consideration, let's bring up my last post. In my last post I mentioned that I probably should be considering a change in strategy in one of three ways. Either I could set my stop on the bid price instead of the last sold price, I could tighten my stop still using the last sold price, or I could start cashing out once my position made a set amount of profit. After sleeping on it and seeing the result of using stops on last sold price, I believe I should at least give two of the considerations a shot. I will start cashing out once my position reaches a set amount of profit and set a tighter stop using the last sold price.
On to NG. It continued to rise Wednesday, and if it continues to rise the rest of the week, my stock will probably be assigned according to the call option I sold.
As for my order for a Call on SLV, I got my confirmed price movement and entered into the position a the stop price of 1.55. Currently the options sits at 1.60. In line with my recently made decision about setting a tighter stop using the last sold price, I will be setting my stop on this new position at 1.35 and bump it up as needed. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Pull Back It Is
I ended my last post with a prognostication about the direction of the market. And I quote, "If tomorrow is a day like today, we might be in for another bear run. However, if the market makes a move like it did in mid-August and early-September, we are looking at a simple pull back."
Since that statement was made late last Thursday night, Friday put in hammer candles which indicate reversal, and Monday and today, confirmed the change of direction. This indicates to me that we are in for at about 3 to 6 additional days of upward price movement, maybe more. With that being my opinion I am going to strive at another option play.
My option play this time is on the SLV index. With all the talk about this commodity being under-priced and extremely rare in comparison to gold. I see this as a 'shiny' time to get involved with this commodity. Since I am in no position to buy the commodity directly, the index is a perfect place to park some cash for a few days or so.
As is my strategy, I want to get in on a confirmed upward move in the stock price. To do that I need to identify my contingency trigger, so I pull out my equation of taking 10% of the current ATR and adding that to the current day's high. ( (0.42*.10)+17.13=17.17 ) Now that I have my trigger, I take the product of 10% of the current ATR and multiply it with the Delta of my chosen Call option, and then add that to the asking price of my chosen option. ( ((0.42*.10)*.58)+1.50=1.52 ) This sum just happens to be in the middle of where my brokerage account will allow me to set a stop, so I round up to the next available price. (1.55) Now that I have my stop I set my limit to 0.05 more than my stop. (1.60) So my order is a stop-limit order of 1.55-1.60 after SLV is priced at or above 17.17.
Now as far as the rest of my portfolio goes, here is how things stand. NG is back above $5, so it is in contention to be called away from me by the Call option I sold against it, which you would know is a good thing to me if you have been following. However, it might just bounce off of $5.75 like it did back in September and come flying down below $5. Expiration is eleven days away so anything is still possible.
My Put on ETP is still in play although the bid price has fallen below my stop. The reason being that no one has purchased any Puts at or below my stop price, thereby converting it into a market order. That, unfortunately, is the risk of setting stops, there is no guarantee that the order will get filled at that price. However, as I look at the price movement of today and compare it to the price movement of the past few weeks. I see that there is a possibility that the price tomorrow might actually head lower tomorrow, thereby increasing the value of my option. The sad part is that my Put expires in 11 days, so I will have to sell it manually in the next couple days anyway.
Considering the amount of the potential profit I have already lost on my ETP Put I may have to institute into my strategy the practice of setting my stops on the bid price, setting tighter stops, or selling at market price once a target profit has been reached, at least until I have enough capital to make more orders at any given time. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Since that statement was made late last Thursday night, Friday put in hammer candles which indicate reversal, and Monday and today, confirmed the change of direction. This indicates to me that we are in for at about 3 to 6 additional days of upward price movement, maybe more. With that being my opinion I am going to strive at another option play.
My option play this time is on the SLV index. With all the talk about this commodity being under-priced and extremely rare in comparison to gold. I see this as a 'shiny' time to get involved with this commodity. Since I am in no position to buy the commodity directly, the index is a perfect place to park some cash for a few days or so.
As is my strategy, I want to get in on a confirmed upward move in the stock price. To do that I need to identify my contingency trigger, so I pull out my equation of taking 10% of the current ATR and adding that to the current day's high. ( (0.42*.10)+17.13=17.17 ) Now that I have my trigger, I take the product of 10% of the current ATR and multiply it with the Delta of my chosen Call option, and then add that to the asking price of my chosen option. ( ((0.42*.10)*.58)+1.50=1.52 ) This sum just happens to be in the middle of where my brokerage account will allow me to set a stop, so I round up to the next available price. (1.55) Now that I have my stop I set my limit to 0.05 more than my stop. (1.60) So my order is a stop-limit order of 1.55-1.60 after SLV is priced at or above 17.17.
Now as far as the rest of my portfolio goes, here is how things stand. NG is back above $5, so it is in contention to be called away from me by the Call option I sold against it, which you would know is a good thing to me if you have been following. However, it might just bounce off of $5.75 like it did back in September and come flying down below $5. Expiration is eleven days away so anything is still possible.
My Put on ETP is still in play although the bid price has fallen below my stop. The reason being that no one has purchased any Puts at or below my stop price, thereby converting it into a market order. That, unfortunately, is the risk of setting stops, there is no guarantee that the order will get filled at that price. However, as I look at the price movement of today and compare it to the price movement of the past few weeks. I see that there is a possibility that the price tomorrow might actually head lower tomorrow, thereby increasing the value of my option. The sad part is that my Put expires in 11 days, so I will have to sell it manually in the next couple days anyway.
Considering the amount of the potential profit I have already lost on my ETP Put I may have to institute into my strategy the practice of setting my stops on the bid price, setting tighter stops, or selling at market price once a target profit has been reached, at least until I have enough capital to make more orders at any given time. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
Thursday, October 1, 2009
A Strategy Keeps You Safe
The last few days have been interesting for me, to say the least. My last couple posts were detailed descriptions of how I decided on my picks and how I came to my entry points. The result of those picks has been a no-go. Each time I put in the order the stock did the opposite. But here is the thing. I am still happy.
How can I be happy when my picks have been wrong? It's because I didn't lose anything in the process. That is where having a strategy comes in. Each of my entry points were far enough outside the previous days movement that it required the stock to move in my desired direction in order for the order to be triggered. Because neither of the stocks moved in the desired direction, I wasn't put in a position that I could lose any capital. That is why it is so important to have a strategy.
One of the reasons this blog exists is to document this investors experience in the stock market during a turbulent economic period. To show that it is possible to make money. Another reason is to re-emphasize in me everything that I have learned and to help me become a better investor. I post because I hope to become a full-time investor one day. I also hope that those who follow my journey to that goal learn from my experience and become better investors.
After the past few days, and especially today, I have an opinion about the market direction. If tomorrow is a day like today, we might be in for another bear run. However, if the market makes a move like it did in mid-August and early-September, we are looking at a simple pull back. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
How can I be happy when my picks have been wrong? It's because I didn't lose anything in the process. That is where having a strategy comes in. Each of my entry points were far enough outside the previous days movement that it required the stock to move in my desired direction in order for the order to be triggered. Because neither of the stocks moved in the desired direction, I wasn't put in a position that I could lose any capital. That is why it is so important to have a strategy.
One of the reasons this blog exists is to document this investors experience in the stock market during a turbulent economic period. To show that it is possible to make money. Another reason is to re-emphasize in me everything that I have learned and to help me become a better investor. I post because I hope to become a full-time investor one day. I also hope that those who follow my journey to that goal learn from my experience and become better investors.
After the past few days, and especially today, I have an opinion about the market direction. If tomorrow is a day like today, we might be in for another bear run. However, if the market makes a move like it did in mid-August and early-September, we are looking at a simple pull back. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
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