Market's Rebound

The market's rebounded greatly today despite reports that the U.S. private sector cut 697,000 more jobs in February and that the services sector shrank, although less than estimated, for the fifth straight month. The rally is being attributed to 1) announcements of a possible Chinese economic stimulus package that spured the bounce of the Asian markets; and 2) the released details about an Obama administration plan to help struggling homeowners.

The possible Chinese economic stimulus package peaked the interest of speculators who bumped up the price of oil and other basic materials, on the assumption that the Chinese economy may be getting restarted.

The released details of a government program designed to help as many as 9 million borrowers stay in their homes through refinanced mortgages or loans that are modified to lower monthly payments got some the bulls off the side lines and into some retail and consumable goods sectors in addition to the construction and basic materials sectors.

Asia:
Nikkei => 7,290.96, +61.24, +0.85%
Hang Seng => 12,331.15, +297.27, +2.47%
Straits Times => 1,544.34, +15.83, +1.04%

Europe:
FTSE => 3,645.87, +133.78, +3.81%
DAX => 3,890.94, +200.22, +5.42%
CAC => 2,675.68, +121.13, +4.74%

U.S.:
Dow => 6,875.84, +149.82, +2.23%
Nasdaq => 1,353.74, +32.73, +2.48%
S&P => 712.87, +16.54, +2.38%

As for me:
AMD => 2.30, +0.23
AMD DG => 0.12, +0.02
F => 1.87, +0.06
HRP JZ => 1.15, -0.35
MIPS => 2.05, -0.01 (OTO: Buy @ Stop 2.08 - Limit 2.10, Sell @ Stop 1.78)
NG => 2.58, -0.02
QAV QZ => 1.53, -0.24, (Sold to Close @ 1.59)

Market Opinion:
A growing opinion in the market is that it may have created itself a bottom. This is on analysis of the VIX which moves opposite the S&P 500. An article by the Associated Press describes how it is believed that the volatility of the VIX has become more subdued in comparison to previous sell offs in October and November of 2008.

But my question is, can pattern recognition be applied to the volatility indices as well? If they can, then the rally today may just be another false positive.

The previous volatility run-ups of January and March of 2008 resembled a double top. And after a recovery from those run-ups in volatility, there was a steady but subtle increase in volatility until the run-ups in October and November which also resemble a double top.

Presently we are in another recovery period in the volatility, which is also in a subtle up trend like before. So before anyone gets their hopes up about the direction of the market, I would wait to see if this subtle volatility uptrend deflates into a downtrend.

Personally, I will be looking for more of these "diamond in the rough" stocks but for the general market I will remain bearish. Possibly until late 2009, early 2010.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.