Thursday, December 24, 2009

Christmas Eve Portfolio Update

Well with the US market closing early today, and my job shutting down early today until the new year, I have the time to make an early post. Also, since I am not a celebrator of holiday's I will probably post watch list and trade picks tomorrow. Anyway, this is how my portfolio fared.

CPLP had an effectively bull day on lower than average volume. I use the word effectively for the reason that it closed higher today than it did yesterday, although it actually opened higher than it closed. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are still showing a loss in strength so it is still not the time for capital gains investors to be getting back in. I am long term for dividend cash flow, so that is the reason why I am in.

EVEP had a bear day as it opened and closed at the same price but just a little under the close of yesterday. The price movement of this doji start candlestick was controlled by below average volume. Doji's starts that occur at the top of a move with the Stochastic and MACD indicators high up in the overbought range, like they are on this day, usually mean that they will trade down shortly afterwards. I'm in for the dividend cash flow so I will not be taking any action. It would be wise for capital gains investors to set stops at this time.

SLV had a bull day on below average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both pointing up but within the oversold range. The impressive thing about the move SLV made was that it gaped up at the open of the day before climbing. This could mean that the bearish conditions have ended, but SLV is challenging resistance at about $17.50. If it breaks above this resistance level, there is good reason to believe that it will rally up to, and through, $19.70.

As far as option paper trades are concerned, I still haven't entered any. JADE and SPIL both had shallow bull days on below average volume. Their Stochastic and MACD indicators are both still suggesting that the bottoming behavior is not over yet. I will continue to watch them. OPWV made an interesting move today. The price movement of the day was bullish. It saw a new high on low volume but came back down to close only 1 cent higher. This type of price movement is called a shooting star doji. This is a reversal indicator, meaning that it has a high probability of going down next week. Additionally, the Stochastic indicator is out of the oversold range, but the MACD indicator is not yet over the zero line. If next week shows a pull back, I will probably not get be getting into it for the paper trade.

In regards to actual trades, I still haven't entered into any. AEA had a bear day on lower than average volume, but remains inside the resistance and support lines of a downward trending right triangle candlestick pattern. The Stochastic indicator is still pointing down but has not broken into the oversold range. The MACD indicator is still tending more or less sideways under the zero line. I will not make a move until a breakout occurs and the indicators both indicate official upward momentum.

Looking back a little bit, I wrote about JPM being a breakout candidate for this week. I was right, but didn't mention anything about it. That was simply because I forgot all about it. Anyway, it has been fighting to break out further, but failing every day this week. It has, however, been moving sideways. This, in addition to the Stochastic indicator pointing up out of the oversold range, and the MACD being close to breaking above the zero line, I will add this to my option paper trades. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

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