July and August Quietness

The months of July and August were quiet except for the ledger recording my regularly scheduled deposits, dividend receipts, and a single trade in August. My trade in August was similar to my solitary trade in June. I simply added to an existing position.

My trade was a BTO of PG on the 5th of August. My reasoning for adding to an existing position of PG is simple. PG is a dividend paying stock that I have a level of confidence that it will continue to pay its dividend. It's a non durable consumer goods company that produces personal hygiene products for a civilized world. Although it has gone down with the softened market this summer, the number of personal hygiene products purchased should start going back up because of teachers/professors and students returning to the personal hygiene aisle as classes come back in session. Yes I am suggesting that some people take a personal hygiene hiatus during the summer.
For now that is all I got. I will continue to look for other opportunities to add to existing positions. I will also look to see if any other stocks meet my dividend paying strategy.

That's my opinion. What's yours? Disclaimer: See bottom of page.
http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

BTO - Bought/Buy To Open
PG - Procter & Gamble

Portfolio Update

In my last update I posted that I added DE, ETP, and PEP to my portfolio in accordance with the investing strategy of buying share in strong companies with sustainable dividends with the goal of being paid every month. I have since then added MCD to my portfolio. MCD has not held its value as well, but the decline does not yet seem to be justified as anymore than profit taking.

My position in the TLT has paid out again this month. Unfortunately, the volume in the bond market is now reversing. As a result of the recent decline, I have lowered my limit order even more. No point in over paying.

I have also made adjustments to my other orders. Some of them I have increased the limit and reduced the number of shares I will purchase because they have moved higher recently. Others I have lowered because I think I see better entries at lower prices based on my technical analysis. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

DE - Deere & Co.
ETP - Energy Transfer Partners, LP
MCD - McDonalds Corp
PEP - Pepsico Inc.
TLT - iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond

Portfolio Update

This post covers a few new changes to my portfolio. On March 1st, I made two purchase for my investing account. The first of my two purchases was for a pair of DE shares. The second of my two purchases was for a pair of PEP shares. On March 2nd, I made a purchase of an additional pair of ETP shares to add to my portfolio's existing shares.

The purpose behind my most recent purchases were based on the following facts. These are dividend paying stocks. These stocks have shown to be strong earners. The dividend payouts of these stocks increase my monthly income for eight of the twelve months of the year. I am however, still missing four months of payouts; January, April, July, and October. I have orders for stocks that cover these months and I am waiting and watching for them to be executed. This all falls in line with my current strategy. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

DE - Deere & Co.
ETP - Energy Transfer Partners, LP
PEP - Pepsico Inc.

Portfolio Update

Again, it has been too long since my last post. It is now 2012. So here is the good and the bad for the end of November 2011 and all of December 2011.

In November, while looking over my losers of the past year, I came to accept that with the macro-economical news causing such aggravating swings, I can not play the trader game while still holding down a J.O.B. for  8 hours a day. So with that I decided that I will start applying  a variation  of the Asset Allocation Strategy of 4 cycle diversification. So with that I increased the gold position of my portfolio with the cash I liquidated from my losers. I BTO additional shares of GLD on November 21, 2011 and again on December 13, 2011 to dollar cost average my position down. As of the close of the market on January 3, 2012, GLD is at $155.92.

While making the transition to an Asset Allocation Strategy based portfolio, I took a short term gamble on the IWM ETF continuing to tank on December 9th after already tanking on the 8th. So I BTO a Jan 21 2012 72.00 Put. However, it reversed and I closed it out for a loss. To make things worse, the follow days saw IWM go back down again before bouncing back up.

Furthering along the transition into an Asset Allocation Strategy based portfolio, I BTO my position into the TLT ETF on December 9th. I then purchased again on December 14th and 20th. Since then, TLT has declined.

As one last gamble for 2011 I BTO a position into the ZNGA IPO. Unfortunately I BTO too high and closed out 99% of my position for a loss. Since then, ZNGA has bee trading above my close out price.

For the coming year, I will only be buying shares of GLD, TLT, and dividend paying stocks. All other positions I currently hold will be held until I am able to collect a profit or collect premiums through options.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

BTO - buy-to-open / bought-to-open
GLD - SPDR Gold Shares
ETF - Exchange Traded Funds
IPO - initial public offering
IWM - iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
TLT - iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund
ZNGA - Zynga Inc.

Portfolio Update

It has been way too long since my last post, and there is a lot to cover. So without further ado, I will get right into it.

As a result of all the European debt issues, on November 4th I STC my position of CPLP call options I BTO on October 20th. The result was a loss of ~57%. Since then, CPLP has continued to decline, and I sold my entire position on November 15th. That sale resulted in a loss of ~39%, not taking into account any of the dividends I received in the past or the dividend I received on November 16th. After doing that I continued looking at the chart for CPLP and it is channeling slightly to the upside. I might consider buying a couple Call options slightly out of the money and way out in time and wait to see if there is one of those pops that CPLP has done in the past. But at the same time, I finally learned what it means to compare PEG ratios, and apparently CPLP is over priced. So with this new knowledge, I found a couple of really "cheap" stocks in comparison that also pay dividends, GLNG and TDW.

Back on October 14th, I rolled an AAPL Call option to a higher strike price that profited me enough that I would be playing with the houses money. On November 7th I rolled this option out for another month, but unfortunately AAPL has been on the decline. Right now the AAPL Call option I own is almost worthless. At this point only a little of the profit from the original AAPL Call option position remains. I don't think I will be doing anymore rolling of this option. If it does not start rebounding, I will accept the loss.

On November 16th, I BTO positions in IWM and GLD. The plan with these is to build up positions that reflect the four asset classes. IWM for the broad market of stocks, GLD for gold, and in time, with the execution of my open order that is still pending a lower price, TLT for long term treasury bonds. The forth asset class is cash which remains in my account for the purpose of selling put options against. This is an imitation of the American Asset Management investment portfolio owned by Julian Rubinstein. And if I can hold to my plan, I should be able to produce better than his 9% a year track record.

Finally, on November 18th, I sold my lossing position in DWA. The final result of this was a loss of ~43%. As was mentioned with CPLP, I found out that the PEG for DWA indicated that it was over priced. On top of that the expectation I had that people would spend more time in theaters than traveling was too ambitious in these turbulent times. However, my research did reveal that there are two stocks in the same industry that are doing well, CNK and RGC. These two are the theaters that DWA movies play in. Despite the disappointing attendance in comparison to previous years, they both have nicer earnings than DWA. On top of that, they both pay a dividend. I might take a position in either or both stocks at some time in the future.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

AAPL - Apple Inc.
BTO - buy-to-open/bought-to-open
CNK - Cinemark Holdings Inc
CPLP - Capital Product Partners, LP
DWA - Dreamworks Animation SKG
GLD - SPDR Gold Trust
GLNG - Golar LNG Ltd.
IWM - Ishares Russell 2000
PEG - Price-to-Equity by Growth Rate ratio
RGC - Regal Entertainment Group
"rolled" - (rolling) - to sell-to-close one position and buy-to-open another position in the same group of options to take profit or extend risk.
TDW - Tidewater Inc.
STC - sell-to-close/sold-to-close

Portfolio Update

Since my last portfolio update, I made a few trades. But in addition to that I followed through with adding funds to my trading account. In fact, I set up a weekly transfer of funds into my trading account. I have this as part of my budget now.

The first thing I have to report about my trades is that the call option I STO against my position in DWA expired worthless. That means that I get to keep the $34.37 premium I received. I am currently planning my next move with DWA.

My next trade was to BTO a put option against RIMM for Nov 19 2011 at the $23 strike price. This trade was STC 6 trading days later and profited $10.75, or ~5%.

Two days later I BTO two put options against RIMM for Oct 22 2011 at the $20 strike price. This trade was STC 3 trading days later and profited $49.39, or ~23%.

I currently have 4 open or pending orders, 3 open stock positions, and 1 open option position. My plan is to wait to see if my 1 open option position expires worthless or has me put into CIM for another 100 shares at $2.50 a share. My 3 open stock positions are all in the red still, but there is past performance that suggest the possibility for eventual turn around. My 4 open or pending orders are for a position of call options on AAPL, a position of put options on RIMM, a position of call options on CIM, and a position of a call option on CPLP. I am bullish on AAPL, bearish on RIMM, bullish on CIM, and Bullish on CPLP.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

AAPL - Apple, Inc
BTO - buy-to-open / bought-to-open
CIM - Chimera Investment Corporation
CPLP - Capital Product Partners, LP
DWA - Dreamworks Animation, Inc.
RIMM - Research In Motion, LTD
STC - sell-to-close / sold-to-closeSTO - sell-to-open / sold-to-open

Portfolio Update

About two weeks ago was option expiration weekend. Since then I have made a few orders but only one has been executed. The order that was executed was a call option against my DWA position. This call option doesn't expire until September. I chose to sell this option because this seems to be one of those summers where the expression "sell in May and go away..." seems accurate. I am choosing to hold on to DWA through the summer despite the continued bearish movement. I truly believe it to be extremely oversold for it's actual performance as a company. I believe that after the summer it should prove to have done relatively well business-wise in this economy. If I had more cash in reserve I would sell more cash-secured puts against it with the intention of getting put into it while everyone seems to be fearful of it. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

DWA - Dreamworks Animation SKG, INC

Late Portfolio Update

Life sometimes just gets in the way. Sometimes it is welcomed, but still a distraction. Anyway, I am back, and here is my update. My CPLP Call was executed and my shares called away. Also, my CIM Put was executed and 100 shares were put to me.

With the clearing of those transactions I have already STO one Put option against my cash to re-enter a position of CPLP. I am currently waiting to see how my two open orders against my shares of DWA and CIM work out. I hesitate to believe that I will be seeing premium for these two orders this month, but DWA is looking like something is about to happen and CIM is already climbing back up. With 18 days left, time will tell. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com/

CIM - Chimera Investment Corporation
CPLP - Capital Product Partners, LP
DWA - Dreamworks Animation SKG Inc
STO - sold-to-open/sell-to-open

Portfolio Update and Option Pick

Since my last post, I have STO two new positions. The first is a Call against my CPLP position. The second is a Put against cash for a stock I have been watching for a while, CIM.

When I placed the order to STO a Call option against my shares of CPLP, I was strongly influenced by the direction of the momentum indicators on a weekly interval. It was my belief that investors were taking their profits, and the stock would pull back. Unfortunately the pull-back I was expecting was short lived, and it rocketed up to my strike price and muscled through. Because all stocks go up and down, even more so for dividend stocks, I will allow the Call option to remain open against my shares and STO a put option to get back into the stock at the $10 strike price in the even that I get exercised out of my position.

I had placed the order to get into CIM weeks before last months option expiration with little expectation that it would get executed. I wanted my cash doing something other than just sitting in my trade account. So placing an order to secure an option seemed a responsible action until I found something else better. CIM has a relatively wide range that is swings in for it's cost and the dividend is a nice amount to receive if I get exercised into the stock.

I am still waiting to see what will happen with my open order to STO a Call against my DWA shares. Recently DWA has been making head-way towards the $30 strike price I got exercised into it. If things continue as they are, I should be able to get my desired premium for this option cycle.

That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com/

CIM - Chimera Investment Corporation
CPLP - Capital Product Partners, LP
DWA - Dreamworks Animation SKG Inc
STO - sold-to-open/sell-to-open

Portfolio Update

With option expiration occurring last Saturday, February 19, 2011, I have a few things to report in relation to my last post. In my last post I reported that I STO a $10 Call option against my shares of CPLP. In the post prior to that I reported, in addition to my new plan for this year, my STO a $30 Put option for DWA, secured by my own cash.

I STO the $10 Call option against my shares of CPLP because I did not believe it would stay above the $10 strike price through option expiration. This was a successful analysis as it expired worthless, leaving me with the premium in my account. My opinion of this stock has not changed, so I have STO another $10 Call option against my CPLP shares with the expiration date of March 19, 2011.

The $30 Put option I STO was executed against my cash, so I am currently the owner of 100 shares of DWA. For this reason I set an order to STO a $30 Call option against these shares, unfortunately the stock value has decreased as well as the limit I set to STO the order. Currently the order remains open in wait for the stock price, and option price, to recover. I believe this should occur within the next two weeks. If not, I will STO the next available $30 Call option, for April 2011. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com/

CPLP - Capital Product Partners, LP
DWA - Dreamworks Animation SKG, Inc.
STO - sold-to-open / sell-to-open

Portfolio Update

I am continuing my plan of selling options against my cash and against stocks that I own. Today, an STO order for the CPLP Feb 19 2011 $10.00 call against my shares of CPLP executed today. I chose to sell an option against my position because I have a significant gain in the stock and believe that it will not stay above this value past the expiration date I choose. If it does, however, I will gladly sell a put option against the cash that I collect in order to get back in if it drops back below the $10 strike price. I, however, believe that it will drop below the $10 strike before the February expiration. In which case, I will keep the premium and the dividend paying shares. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com/

CPLP - Capital Product Partners, LP
STO - sell-to-open / sold-to-open

Year In Review and Looking Forward

With a new year should come a moment of reflection on ones past and contemplation on the future. The same should be said about ones investing. In light of that, here is my year in review and my plan for the coming year.

Last year I opened and closed a total of 28 positions. Out of the 28 positions, 15 of them resulted in profits and 13 of them resulted in loses. This tells me that I am just barely better than 50% right. Unfortunately, when my choices are bad, they are really bad. My 15 profitable choices only earned me $764.25, while my 13 losers has cost me $1,538.68. That results in a net loss of $774.43. And on top of that, some of it cannot be written off because they qualify as wash-sales.

The reasons vary for my bad performance. Some were because of poor analysis, some because I got greedy and didn't take the profit when I had the chance; some because I didn't set my entries or stops properly. This year I have to pick a plan and stick with it. As a result of my getting out of debt last year, I now have extra capital I can devote to my portfolio.

The plan for this year is as follows:

• Only pick from stocks that have options; being a dividend paying stock is a plus.
• Sell cash secured put options for the stocks that I would like to own.
• For stocks I own, sell call options against them at a price higher than I BTO.

With this new plan in place I set a few orders last night and today one of them executed. I sold 1 of the DWA Feb 19 2011 $30.00 puts against a sum of $3000. Although DWA has been on a bearish trend and had a bearish day today, I don't believe it will continue going down for much longer. Even if I do get exercised into the position, I believe there will be an eventual turn around, and I will be able to profit from the capital gains.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com/
 
BTO - bought-to-open / buy-to-open
DWA - Dreamworks Animation SKG, Inc.

Portfolio Update: One Day Trade

Today is Thanksgiving and the U.S. markets are closed. Since I didn't have the time last night to post the results of my last trade, I am doing it now. Yesterday, I entered into a 5 contract position of the QQQQ 20110122 $53 call options. This was done as a contingent order that if the underlying QQQQ shares priced above $52.86 that I would BTO a position of 5 call options at a limit of $1.49 per contract share. It triggered and my position was BTO at $1.46.

The value continued to climb to $1.60 early in the day and held that level through-out the afternoon with a top of $1.63. With my non-professional analysis of the technical indicators, I became uncertain of this stalled gain continuing higher past Thanksgiving. So I decided to make a day traders move and cash out before the close at the bid of $1.59. This resulted in this trade profiting just over 6.5%. Again, better than bank interest. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

BTO - buy-to-open / bought-to-open
QQQQ - Powershares QQQ Trust ETF

New Option Pick

I have decided that I am going to put a toe into the options only market again. For this trade I am going to use the underlying stock of BRCD, Brocade Communications Sys Inc. There isn't anything that is fundamentally strong about this stock in any significant way.

There are a few things of interest about it. It is second in it's industry, Cisco is number one. It has been out performing the S&P 500 for the past year. And the estimated ROI is a solid multiple. Other than that, it has been in a downward trend for five months.

Technically speaking, its daily Stochastic and MACD indicators suggest that it is building momentum for positive gains. The weekly versions of the Stochastic and MACD indicators suggest that it is way oversold and is due for a turn around. I am taking the position that it will be doing so if it breaks above $6 a share.

For these reasons I am buying 2 BQB July 2010 $6 Call options if BRCD trades above $6. I am also setting a price limit of $1.05 per contract share on the option purchase to prevent the purchase of the option if the stock breaks out more than expected. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update

CPLP had a bearish day on higher than average volume. The price movement of the day resembles that of yesterday. It opened slightly higher only to drop hard during the day and then close much closer to but below the open. This repeated price movement is causing the Stochastic and MACD indicators to start slowing their decent.

EVEP had a bullish day on less than average volume. The price movement was relatively narrow but was enough to affect the Stochastic and MACD indicators. They are both pointing up at this time. I believe the strength is building up under this stock to blow through $32.

SLV had a really bearish day on greater than average volume. The price movement was completely contrary to what I thought it would be. I think I will posting a order to selling the $18Feb10 call against my shares to collect a little premium. But when I post the order it will be at a higher price than the bid and ask. I want it to sell after the market has turned back up for the commodity.

ISPH, my paper trade, had a bearish day on lower than average volume, but it is closed near the close of yesterday. The Stochastic indicator is still pointing down, but the MACD has already begun to level off. I seems to be taking it's time, but I think I will see a change in it by next week.

In addition, AEA, JPM, OPWV, and S all look like they are in position for a rally. I am adding them to my paper trades at this time. I have higher expectations for AEA and JPM than I do for OPWV and S, but I wouldn't mind being pleasantly surprised. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update

CPLP had a bearish day on slightly higher than average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are unchanged in their direction. What we do have is a very long lower shadow that just barely touched the low made back in late December that started the last rally. There was then a push back up from the extreme low to close slightly lower than the open. This is an indication that a change in direction may be in the future.

EVEP had a bearish day on higher than average volume. The Stochastic indicator continued to point up but the MACD indicator turned back down. With a lower shadow almost the same length of the body of the move, I am thinking that the immediate future of the stock will see continued sideways trading with a slight push up.

SLV had a bearish day on less than average volume. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both still pointing down, but the MACD indicator is reacting to the averaging of the past two days. I think it is leveling off right now and then it will finally start to climb. As a result of the price movement today, my limit order was executed at a much lower price than I expected. I now have a full contract worth of SLV to sell calls against. I will start looking for one.

ISPH, my paper trade, had a bullish day on much less than average volume. Both the Stochastic and MACD indicators are still pointing down, but the MACD is already reacting to the averaging out of the past four days. I think it will go up soon enough. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update

This day didn't see much action in the market. As a result there wasn't much movement in my portfolio either. This is how my portfolio fared.

CPLP had another bear day on less than average volume. The stock itself is obviously pointing down. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are pointing down while sitting in the overbought range. During the day the 200-day moving average was touched by the low, but the stock closed a few cents higher. It would be unwise for a capital gains investor to remain in this stock. It is good that I am in for the cash flow from the dividend.

EVEP had a bull day on less than average volume. With the Stochastic and MACD indicators in the overbought range and the MACD already pointing down, it is unlikely that this level will be maintained for much longer. It would be wise for a capital gains investor to be setting a stop. But I am not investing in this stock for the capital gains, either.

SLV had a bull day on on less than average volume. With the Stochastic and MACD in the oversold range and moving sideways. This is what they call basing. It is only a matter of time until it breaks out to the upside.

On my list of option paper trade possibilities, JADE is looking better as its price movement is breaking through the downward trending resistance line that I am tracking it against. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both in the oversold range, but they are starting to level off and turn. If tomorrow is a strong day I will get into it then. I mentioned SPIL in my last post and instead of a bull day it had a bear day. The Stochastic and MACD indicators are also still over sold, so I am still not entering it.

In regards to stocks I will be getting into, AEA had a bear day, breaking under the upward trending support line I was tracking it against. It looks to be making a base on the horizontal support line I mention I was also tracking it against as well as the downward trending resistance line. The MACD indicator has leveled out but the Stochastic indicator is still declining toward the oversold range, but not yet in it. I am waiting for the price to break above the downward trending resistance line and for the Stochastic and MACD to point up and out of the oversold range. It doesn't look like it will be too far off. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

Portfolio Update

I am pleased to announce that on this moderately bullish day, I made some really nice unrealized profits. So lets get to it.

CPLP had a bullish day. Unfortunately, it was only two cents and the volume was low. At some point during the day, it once again challenged the high of the channel it has been trading in for the past month. Including the fact that the moving average and signal line of the MACD are brushing just under the zero line like it was in mid-September, I believe that it may be ready to break out, finally. Unfortunately I am not sure how long or how much it may go for. Right now I estimate about $10-$10.50.

EVEP had a really swinging bull day. It closed moderately higher than it's open but through-out the day it both dropped well below the close of the previous day and rose just enough to put in a new high. The volume for the past two days has been better than the average, however, not by much. The run up for this stock may be over with. Taking that into consideration, as well as the fact that it is a dividend paying stock, I am inclined to sell a call option against it as it pulls back. I will consider this after I get an indicator that this may be the peek for this cycle.

FPL had a completely bull day, and is my primary reason for being pleased today. From open until close, it was more than less all gains. With over a dollar move up and volume that was a little better than average, the unrealized profits are of the kind that option traders look forward to, and I am glad that I am in an option at this time. But that being said, the secondary indicators suggest that it has been over bought for a little while this cycle. Because I don't want to be a pig, I am going to, again, tighten my stop on it in hopes of keeping as much of it as I can. I've got to remember the first rule of investing, "Don't lose your money!"

MU again had a moderately bull day on less than average volume. The momentum of the secondary indicators is slowing down, suggesting that a gradual change of direction or sideways trend is forming. With 9 days left until option expiration, the chance of my shares not being called away from me is quickly slipping away. Again, this is fine by me since the stock doesn't pay dividends.

SLV is the only position I am in that did not have a bull day. However, what it did today was challenge the bottom it hit yesterday on volume that was less than average. The moving average and signal line of the MACD still continued to drift below the zero line, and the Stochastic %K and %D lines continued down as well. The final change in price resulted in what is known as a hammer candlestick. When occurring after a down trend, hammer's usually suggests that the trend is reversing. If this turns out to be true tomorrow, I will be in an even greater mood tomorrow since I bought into SLV yesterday when it hit this bottom.

As for my paper trades in the options market, both of my positions had a bullish day although only the PCS stock went up. From what I can tell this occurred because people bought into S only at the open, but no one else considered it worth their time the rest of the day. S actually fell below it's 200-day moving average after breaking above it yesterday and a couple days before that. Yesterday, S actually put in a bearish gravestone like doji candlestick. This implies that today's down day is confirmation that it will continue to fall. PCS, however, broke back above it's 50-day moving average. I currently have more faith that PCS is going to rally than S. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.

Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com