Mark Speaks, Facebook Jumps

Tuesday, as investors anticipated what Facebook CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, would say at his TechCrunch Disrupt appearance, the stock price for Facebook climbed and then and held on to a 3.3% gain by the close of the regular session. An hour after the close, Mark took the stage and fielded questions.

The first set of questions focused on the stock price. Mark didn't hesitate to accept that it was disappointing to see it so low, but then, in what always seems like the same breath, began to reaffirm that it doesn't change the long term mission of the company. He insisted that revenue growth is not taking a back seat to the mission of delivering great services to the users, and that he realizes the importance of balancing the two.

In his answer about generating revenue from mobile, he stated that Facebook is seeing greater revenue growth from it's sponsored stories then it ever saw from the right side ads on the desktop site. (A question about accidental clicks comes to mind but was not addressed, nor was user satisfaction.)

Mark also fielded a question about employee moral in regards to the stock price and it's effect on employee stock options. He indicated that the lower stock price provided an opportunity for potential employees who are believers in the mission of Facebook to apply now, or, if an existing employee, to double down.

As for products in the pipeline, Mark clearly stated the position that Facebook will not be going into hardware anytime soon. There is no Facebook phone is in the works. Facebook is, however, looking into other ways to monetize both desktop and mobile. They are very happy with the native Apple iOS version of the Facebook app and will be continuing to improve it, and they are currently working on building the native Andriod version. Without specifying a date, Mark said it would be out soon. When pressed, he said "when it's ready and hopefully not before." Additionally, Mark indicated that "search" as a product is something that they have beem working on, but gave only an example of how it would be used to promote Facebook's mission of openness and social connectivity.

As a point of trivial interest that illustrates Marks understanding of how importent mobile is to Facebook's future, he said that the Letter to Investors that came with the S-1 filing was writen by him on his mobile device.

Everything that I covered above, and details that I left out, resulted in an additional after hours gain of about 3.45%. Current asking price is $20.10. You would think that this would change my opinion of Facebook; hardley! In all honesty, I am not one of those people that believes that Facebook will go the way of MySpace. I believe Facebook does have a long term story. However, I do not believe that Facebook deserves it's current valuation. I am fairly certain that it will continue to move positively the next couple of days, if not longer, but my value analysis of the financials does not make me feel confident with the idea of taking a bullish stance on it just yet. That's my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com/

Portfolio Update

Since my last portfolio update, I have only one change to document. On Wednesday, the 29th of August, I added to my JNJ position. This purchase occurred near the first Fibonacci extension level from it's most recent high. Since then, JNJ has already bounced back up and closed above my purchase price for this position.

As confirmation of my plans for future purchases, I will be focused on adding to my current positions.  The speculation portion of my portfolio continues to be put positions against FB as I didn't sell when my principle was doubled at the beginning of August. Although FB didn't rebound much before starting to go down again. Because it's price is eroding so slowly, I have also watched the value of my puts erode as well. I personally believe FB has much more to go down (Facebook Not Remotely Worth 38$) so I might be able to regain some profitable value before their October expiration. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

FB - Facebook, Inc.
JNJ - Johnson & Johnson

Portfolio Update

I have made a few changes to my portfolio over the past, almost, two months. The first set of changes were made on the 27th of July as I STC my ZNGA position for a loss that I could not bare to see grow any further, as well as my CIM position for the same reason. I need more profitable choices in my portfolio that will pay me dividends while growing or at least hold on to their value. But since speculating keeps me attentive to the market I will do it with options. This way, while I can see more exciting gains from option trades, I can narrowly define my losses better. So for longer term purchases I will be buying stocks, and for excitement trade options.

With the cash I freed by STC my ZNGA and CIM positions, I first BTO, as a trade, Puts against FB. My reasons being that I don't see them bottoming at this current time and that I believe the lockout which expires this week will result in an even lower price. Next I BTO a position into AGNC another REIT with growth and a better dividend than CIM and it's commercial counter-part NLY. These trades were made on the same 27th of July

Finally, on the 8th of August I BTO a position in ETP. I believe the price has become low enough that the dividend yield is too attractive not to buy. I want to continue to add to this position as time goes by but the majority of my free cash is not allocated for positions in a few other stocks to balance out my monthly dividend payout strategy. I will allocate more cash to purchase ETP and the other dividend paying stocks in my portfolio as the capital gets added from my day job. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

AGNC - American Capital Agency Corp.
BTO - buy-to-open / bought-to-open
CIM - Chimera Investment Corporation
ETP - Energy Transfer Partners LP
FB - Facebook, Inc.
STC - sell-to-close / sold-to-close
ZNGA - Zynga Inc.

Portfolio Update

Once again, I have made changes to my portfolio, so here is my portfolio update. Since I have been adding cash to my account, I had enough to make an order. I chose to add to my CNK position in the event that it would pull back to $21.50.

Well, it did. But a little more than I had expected. Apparently the Federal Reserve statements, Existing Home Sales, and Jobless Claims reports this week didn't give the market much solace, even though the European economic scene seems to have stabilized for the moment. But that can change any day.

I will continue to add cash to my account and put in orders to add to my existing positions. I believe the market will be more bearish this summer as Congress continues to perpetrate what they can to force a presidential change this fall by doing nothing that the current president has asked them to do. This is not me saying that I support Barack Obama, nor do I support Mitt Romney. I am of the opinion that Presidents have become nothing more than figure-heads. It is congress that actually has all the real power to help the economy.That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

CNK - Cinemark Holdings, Inc.

Portfolio Update

I am a little behind schedule on reporting my portfolio updates. Since my last update, I have changed some of my opinions a little. I have also added to my account so that I have some additional cash to invest.

First, I have restarted auto deposits into my investing account and my IRA. Both of which are under-funded. I especially have a lot of catching up to do in my IRA. However, further information about that is outside the scope of this post.

Second, I STC my puts against FB. The result was that I raked in ~37% profit on that short trade.

Lastly, I then took the profit and the capital that I had pending for one of my other dividend paying stock picks, CNK, and added to my already existing positions of JNJ and PG. I then re-evaluated the chart for CNK and decided to buy a third of the shares I was planning on at the higher price it was currently around. Unfortunately, CNK has declined a little since I BTO the position today. I am still currently satisfied with my positions. That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

BTO - buy-to-open / bought-to-open
CNK - Cinemark Holdings Inc
FB - Facebook Inc.
IRA - Individual Retirement Account
JNJ - Johnson & Johnson
PNG - Proctor & Gamble Co
STC - sell-to-close / sold-to-close

Portfolio Update

Since my last update where I purchased shares in ZNGA, it has tragically declined. However, as one of my few speculation plays, I intend on adding to my position if there next earnings report, indicates improvements I can believe as reasonable expectations.

Also, since my last update I purchased shares of YUM, as it finally came down enough to trigger my limit order. Now I only have one more stock to buy that rounds out my dividend strategy. It, however, seems to be resisting the market pressures better than I expected.

In the mean time I have taken advantage of the opening of FB on the option market to buy put options against it. I am extremely disappointed in its extreme over-valuation. I am expecting continued declines into the low 20s, if not further. That is my opinion, you can take it, or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com

FB - Facebook Inc
YUM -YUM Brands Inc
ZNGA - Zynga Inc

Facebook Not Remotely Worth 38$

On Friday, FB IPO'd at 38$. The thing is that they only earned 43¢ per share last year. That puts their current P/E ratio at over 88. Even if we look at foward looking estimates. They are still over priced to a P/E of about 55.
Now lets look at GOOG. They only have a P/E of about 18. So if we do the math of using FB earnings times GOOG P/E we have a relative price for FB of less than 8$. So far, the market agrees as FB price dropped to 31$ and is struggling to not drop any more.
My opinion? I'm putting it to practice. I've put an order in for under 8$. That is my opinion, you can take it, or leave it. Disclaimer: See bottom of page. http://investorsopinion.blogspot.com
FB - Facebook, Inc.
GOOG - Google Inc
IPO - initial public offering
P/E - price-to-earnings ratio