A couple weeks ago I mentioned that a reversal was imminent. Because it took so long to form I suspect that anyone who reads this blog thinks my prognostication skills are a bit week. I am not going to argue that. Prognostication is not omniscient foresight. As time goes by the forecast changes.
So here is the forecast now. The imminent reversal is happening now. But this is happening not on bad news but on good news. New home sales are rising for the first time in months and consumer spending is higher than expected. Some companies are even posting profits that are significantly better than those from this time last year. So why is this reversal happening? I have two words for you. Profit taking.
After all these months of investing in these companies. The investors are selling to get their ROI. But what does this mean for the market? It simply means this. What I expected as a significant reversal may not be anything more than a strong pull back. I am suspecting a 'ball-park' pull back to 8800 for the Dow, 1850 for the NASDAQ, and 950 for the S&P 500.
I am currently still holding on to a stock position as well as a put position on Nova Gold (NG). The stock is still profitable and the put is in break-even territory for now. We will see how that goes.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Friday, July 17, 2009
Imminent Reversal
So it has been a couple of weeks and I have news to report. There is an imminent reversal about to happen. And I apologize about not mentioning this earlier, but I do get busy, as an example to a family member about the power of options I bought an option position on FPL. I will talk about that also.
So what we have is that the Stochastic and MACD daily technical indicators for the major indices are in the over bought range. But if we look at the same indicators for the weekly chart we see that they are declining from the over bought range. What can be expected from this is that the indices, and any stocks with similar situations, will stall out and test recent bottoms or blow down below them for a little bit.
Now as I have been testing my programming skills in creating a program that predicts these changes in movement and provides suggestions based on an investors risk level I have been introducing what I know and learn to family and friends. Well a discussion about stocks started up and I showed this family member NG. and how much profit it has made so far. He was impressed and so I showed him FPL since it it one of the stocks I regularly watch, and it had a triple threat signal for a bull trader. (Candle stick, Stochastic cross, MACD cross) With that I showed him options and what the power in that is. I actually bought the FPL IK option earlier that day. I then introduced him to paper trading. So he is pumped.
Now for the bad news. I saw that FPL was slowing down yesterday and I wanted to protect some of the profit I had made in the past few days. So I set a stop at 3.20 per contract-share and it got taken out at 3.00 per contract-share. Since I got it at 2.75 per contract-share my profit is .25 per contract-share or 9%. What I haven't mentioned, and I won't, is how many I bought. Lets just say the minimum is 100 shares per contract. So you can multiply the numbers mentioned by any number of hundreds.
What I am looking at now is waiting a couple of weeks to see if the prediction I mentioned at the beginning of this article comes to light as I am expecting.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page.
So what we have is that the Stochastic and MACD daily technical indicators for the major indices are in the over bought range. But if we look at the same indicators for the weekly chart we see that they are declining from the over bought range. What can be expected from this is that the indices, and any stocks with similar situations, will stall out and test recent bottoms or blow down below them for a little bit.
Now as I have been testing my programming skills in creating a program that predicts these changes in movement and provides suggestions based on an investors risk level I have been introducing what I know and learn to family and friends. Well a discussion about stocks started up and I showed this family member NG. and how much profit it has made so far. He was impressed and so I showed him FPL since it it one of the stocks I regularly watch, and it had a triple threat signal for a bull trader. (Candle stick, Stochastic cross, MACD cross) With that I showed him options and what the power in that is. I actually bought the FPL IK option earlier that day. I then introduced him to paper trading. So he is pumped.
Now for the bad news. I saw that FPL was slowing down yesterday and I wanted to protect some of the profit I had made in the past few days. So I set a stop at 3.20 per contract-share and it got taken out at 3.00 per contract-share. Since I got it at 2.75 per contract-share my profit is .25 per contract-share or 9%. What I haven't mentioned, and I won't, is how many I bought. Lets just say the minimum is 100 shares per contract. So you can multiply the numbers mentioned by any number of hundreds.
What I am looking at now is waiting a couple of weeks to see if the prediction I mentioned at the beginning of this article comes to light as I am expecting.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: See bottom of page.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Back Again, Finally
Hello again. I apologies for not being around. I picked up a contract job for a little while and, circumstances as they were, I just could not get online afterwards to tend to this blog or my own positions as you will soon hear. I am, however, back again.
I am not going to do the market wraps like I have done before. You can go to any number of financial sights to see that. What I am going to do is quickly state the condition of my own accounts.
For instance, those two options I had (CVX QJ and FPL QH) both expired worthless. This is a lesson in setting stops that I still have to perfect (school of hard knocks). My stock in Nova Gold (NG), however, is doing well. The average unit cost of my three positions is $2.95 and today's closing price is $3.82. Including the deduction of commissions, this is 29.4% profit over 5 months.
Now I'll admit, that is not the +/-70% I could of pocketed if I had regularly watched the stock and set my stop to catch the shift of June 3rd. But seriously, show me a bank that is offering that kind of interest and I'll stop blogging.
Right now the market has deflated some so I am analyzing for future positions to make. Keep on the watch for more details.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
I am not going to do the market wraps like I have done before. You can go to any number of financial sights to see that. What I am going to do is quickly state the condition of my own accounts.
For instance, those two options I had (CVX QJ and FPL QH) both expired worthless. This is a lesson in setting stops that I still have to perfect (school of hard knocks). My stock in Nova Gold (NG), however, is doing well. The average unit cost of my three positions is $2.95 and today's closing price is $3.82. Including the deduction of commissions, this is 29.4% profit over 5 months.
Now I'll admit, that is not the +/-70% I could of pocketed if I had regularly watched the stock and set my stop to catch the shift of June 3rd. But seriously, show me a bank that is offering that kind of interest and I'll stop blogging.
Right now the market has deflated some so I am analyzing for future positions to make. Keep on the watch for more details.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Weekly Report for Week Ending 5-02-2009
The stock market continues to resist pulling back but at the same time lives along the resistance zones for the indices of interest. We will go into those after the wrap-up.
U.S.
Dow => 8212.41, +136.12
Nasdaq => 1719.20, +24.91
S&P => 877.52, +11.29
Mine
NG => 2.77, +0.12
CVX QJ => 0.02, -0.03
FPL QH => 0.05, -0.05
In my introduction I mentioned that the indices of interest have been living along resistance zones. What does this mean. Well resistance zones are point levels on a chart where a stock or index has reached before and tried to extend above but was not able to. Usually these same resistance zones use to be support zones, the exact opposite. These resistance zones are given a general number but have some margin for error.
In the case of the Dow, the most recent resistance zone is the 8,300 point level. This is looking at a weekly chart. Prior to this, in the last quarter of 2008, 8,300 was a support level. Now for the past few weeks it has been running along this zone.
As for the Nasdaq, 1,750 is the resistance zone it has reached. This level was dropped through and challenged during the latter part of October 2008. Afterwards lower resistance levels were created and challenged.
Finally, the S&P is challenging the 900 point resistance zone it established back in December 2008.
Now there is even more indication that this most recent bull move is coming to an end. However, how fast it will reverse, and how far it will go is uncertain as there are a number of resistance levels that have been converted into support levels as it has climbed to recent heights. I am only suspecting a short pull back for most.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Weekly Report for Week Ending 4-25-2009
Again, I lost track of time and am playing catch up. This was the market results for the week ending 4-25-2009
U.S.
Dow => 8,076.29, -55.04
Nasdaq => 1,694.29, +21.22
S&P => 866.23, -3.37
Mine
NG => 2.65, +.31
CVX QJ => 0.05, -0.05
FPL QH => 0.10, -0.05
Market Outlook
Well, for the past few weeks I have been saying that the market is going down. And I am not above admitting that I can be wrong. However, am I? So far the market has been going sideways, and that does say a lot. What does it say?
It says that their are still sectors that are resisting the still poor economic data. It also says that the economy is very close to a rebound. It won't be long until an official bull market starts.
So what is my opinion? I don't think the next pull back will be as deep as I was expecting. the indices that I report on probably won't fall below the 7,500, 1500, and 800 points levels respectively. At which time we should see another bull move or indication of persisting bearishness.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
U.S.
Dow => 8,076.29, -55.04
Nasdaq => 1,694.29, +21.22
S&P => 866.23, -3.37
Mine
NG => 2.65, +.31
CVX QJ => 0.05, -0.05
FPL QH => 0.10, -0.05
Market Outlook
Well, for the past few weeks I have been saying that the market is going down. And I am not above admitting that I can be wrong. However, am I? So far the market has been going sideways, and that does say a lot. What does it say?
It says that their are still sectors that are resisting the still poor economic data. It also says that the economy is very close to a rebound. It won't be long until an official bull market starts.
So what is my opinion? I don't think the next pull back will be as deep as I was expecting. the indices that I report on probably won't fall below the 7,500, 1500, and 800 points levels respectively. At which time we should see another bull move or indication of persisting bearishness.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Market Results
Another week has gone buy and it was option expiration this week. I have a few things to say about the stock and options market. But before I go into that, let's get to the market summary.
U.S.
Dow => 8131.33, +47.95
Nasdaq => 1673.07, +20.53
S&P => 869.60, +13.04
Mine
AMD => 3.56, -0.19 (Sell Assigned@3.00 by AMD DG)
F => 4.00, -0.24 (Sell Assigned@3.00 by F DG)
NG => 2.34, -0.58
CVX QJ => 0.10, -0.10
FPL QH => 0.15, unchanged
Market Outlook
My opinion of the market still hasn't changed. Yes, the government officials of China and the United States say that the economy isn't that bad and is actually showing signs of improvement, and I agree with them. But, we are not talking about the economy. We are talking about a more specific topic. The stock market.
As I have been mentioning for the past few weeks, the market is over bought, too much money is in it for this cycle. Every week has been showing week gains. This is one indication that the market is running out of steam. It is only a matter of time until the market reverses. Now, the reversal probably won't be very large, but it must occur before the market can move significantly higher.
U.S.
Dow => 8131.33, +47.95
Nasdaq => 1673.07, +20.53
S&P => 869.60, +13.04
Mine
AMD => 3.56, -0.19 (Sell Assigned@3.00 by AMD DG)
F => 4.00, -0.24 (Sell Assigned@3.00 by F DG)
NG => 2.34, -0.58
CVX QJ => 0.10, -0.10
FPL QH => 0.15, unchanged
Market Outlook
My opinion of the market still hasn't changed. Yes, the government officials of China and the United States say that the economy isn't that bad and is actually showing signs of improvement, and I agree with them. But, we are not talking about the economy. We are talking about a more specific topic. The stock market.
As I have been mentioning for the past few weeks, the market is over bought, too much money is in it for this cycle. Every week has been showing week gains. This is one indication that the market is running out of steam. It is only a matter of time until the market reverses. Now, the reversal probably won't be very large, but it must occur before the market can move significantly higher.
Options Market
So I got assigned. Oh well. You win some, you loose some. My Ford and AMD stock got called away from me because this bull move has been resisting the inevitable. It can't maintain these levels for much longer, but it did it long enough to get me called out.
Oh well. At least I made a profit on my stock positions. Both Ford and AMD were originally purchased at 1.92 and 2.21 respectively.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Weekly Report for Week Ending 4-10-2009
I am sorry for being a few days late on the weekly report. So lets get right to it.
U.S.
Dow => 8083.38, +65.79
Nasdaq => 1652.54, +30.67
S&P => 856.56, +14.06
Mine
AMD => 3.75, +0.32
F => 4.24, +0.99
NG => 2.92, +0.15
CVX QJ => 0.15, -0.05
FPL QH => 0.15, -0.40
My outlook is that the market is still going down from here. This is because all momentum indicators I watch are still slowing and reversing. I don't want to sound like a broken record so if you want to see what I am looking at that causes me to think that, just read the last two weekly reports. I don't mean to be rude but, seriously, do you want to see the same reasons written over and over again?
Now it looks like my option picks didn't work out very well for me, but I still have a month left, and things are turning in my opinion, I am just going to wait them out.
I have two cover calls that I haven't been posting. One is on AMD and the other is on Ford. They are both ITM so they might be called away from me this Friday since it is option expiration. But I am going to allow it to ride. The option is two expensive for me to buy back but I made enough profit on the stocks to be satisfied with being called away.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
U.S.
Dow => 8083.38, +65.79
Nasdaq => 1652.54, +30.67
S&P => 856.56, +14.06
Mine
AMD => 3.75, +0.32
F => 4.24, +0.99
NG => 2.92, +0.15
CVX QJ => 0.15, -0.05
FPL QH => 0.15, -0.40
My outlook is that the market is still going down from here. This is because all momentum indicators I watch are still slowing and reversing. I don't want to sound like a broken record so if you want to see what I am looking at that causes me to think that, just read the last two weekly reports. I don't mean to be rude but, seriously, do you want to see the same reasons written over and over again?
Now it looks like my option picks didn't work out very well for me, but I still have a month left, and things are turning in my opinion, I am just going to wait them out.
I have two cover calls that I haven't been posting. One is on AMD and the other is on Ford. They are both ITM so they might be called away from me this Friday since it is option expiration. But I am going to allow it to ride. The option is two expensive for me to buy back but I made enough profit on the stocks to be satisfied with being called away.
That is my opinion, you can take it or leave it.
Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker; I am not a financial advisor; I am not recommending to you what to buy or sell. I am just an opinionated investor. If you decide to follow in my footsteps you are taking risk. It is inevitable that I may be wrong. So if you are going to follow in my footsteps that is your own personal decision. I am not responsible for any loss that you may, and probably will, incur regardless of my opinion.
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